On Tuesday, A-shares continued to adjust their "land volume".
On December 26, after opening low, all the way down, water, building materials, fertilizers and pesticides and other sectors bucked the trend, and phosphorus chemical concept stocks rose sharply against the trend, but failed to reverse the overall trend. In the afternoon, the two markets bottomed out, the three major stock indexes narrowed their declines, and the Shanghai Composite Index once regained 2,900 points. However, there was a ** in late trading, and finally the Shanghai Composite Index closed below 2900 points.
On the disk, on Tuesday (December 26), with the suspension of northbound trading, there was a large area of the market at the **level, and there is indeed a certain degree of selling pressure in the current market. The chief investment adviser of a brokerage firm told the surging news reporter.
However, another East China brokerage investment consultant believes that there are several good signals in the market on Tuesday, first of all, the speed has slowed down significantly, and the trading volume has shrunk to the ground, indicating that the market selling pressure is close to exhaustion. Secondly, the further reduction of the number of falling limits shows that the panic market has further decreased, and ** has a strong technical repair expectation. Thirdly, from the perspective of market valuation, the recent adjustment is a good time for the medium and long-term layout. Finally, at present, the weekly level of the major indices is in a state of sinking to the bottom of the three lines, and the pace is very consistent, among which the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and the CSI 300 have appeared at the bottom of the golden cross red frame, which is a relatively strong medium-term bottoming signal.
From the perspective of technical patterns and major indicators, at present, there are not only short-term sentiment repair expectations, but also strong reversal expectations in the medium term, and they are close to or have reached a turning point. Therefore, it is completely unnecessary to be overly pessimistic, it is time to lose below 3000 points, and the overall opportunity is greater than the risk. The above-mentioned investment advisory judgment of the East China brokerage.
The turnover of the two cities was only 609.9 billion yuan
As of December 26**, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 068% at 289888 points;The STAR 50 Index fell 143% at 82526 o'clock;The Shenzhen Component Index fell 107% to 915725 o'clock;The GEM index fell 126% at 18085 points.
In terms of sectors, according to the Great Wisdom VIP, software, semiconductors, Internet, and communications fell first, while themes such as artificial intelligence, computing power, integrated die-casting, and new energy vehicles weakenedThe water sector strengthened in the afternoon, and phosphorus chemicals, dragons, and synthetic biology concept stocks were active against the trend.
In terms of capital, the activity of funds in the market has increased, but the overall volume and energy are still insufficient, with a turnover of 609.9 billion yuan in the two cities, an increase of 1.8 billion yuan from 608.1 billion yuan on the previous trading day. Among them, the Shanghai market turnover was 260.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.3 billion yuan from 261.5 billion yuan on the previous trading day, and the ** turnover was 349.7 billion yuan.
On Tuesday, ** opened low and went low, all the way down, with the second low**, the 2900 point mark was broken, and showed a trend of increasing price decline (Shanghai market price decline contraction, **price decline increase). The 5-day line is lost, all ** bears are arranged, the volume and price relationship of the price decline increases, ** intraday inertia will fall, the support near the recent low of 2882 points will face a test, if ** falls below 2882 points, the daily MACD indicator continues to diverge from the bottom, **intraday there will be** requirements. Founder analyst Zhao Wei believes that the intraday inertia will fall, 2882 points of support will face a test, whether it can be lost will determine the trend, if 2882 points form support and **, the low point of the year is expected to be proven;If 2882 fails, support near 2863 will be tested.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source, said that after falling below 3000 points, there is a rapid bottoming trend, and the current long-short divergence is still large, and the acceleration of bottoming also means that the market is getting closer and closer to the bottom, and the market outlook may appear to be about to end in 2023, and it is difficult to return to 3000 points.
Hao Xinming, manager of Fangxin Wealth Investment, said that the recent continuous adjustment of the A** field, the trading volume retreated to the level of 600 billion yuan, from the perspective of the relationship between volume and price and the long and short game, the bottom usually needs a weekly or even monthly level of the ground time cycle to wear down the bears, the current market is in accordance with the law in the process of deduction, bottoming out in time still needs to wait.
Spring restlessness** is extremely unlikely
2023 is coming to an end, how do you see the next market**?
China Merchants ** pointed out that after the previous adjustment, the CSI 300 index has returned to near the lowest level in history, the dividend yield has returned to near the highest level in history, the interest rate spread relative to the 10-year treasury bond has hit a record high, and the ratio of the CSI 300 price-earnings ratio to the S&P 500 has returned to the lowest level in history. The CSI 300 Index is relatively extremely undervalued both horizontally and vertically. Recently, many physical economic indicators have turned positive, indicating that the economy is improving. From a rational and medium- to long-term perspective, the CSI 300 is ushering in the glimmer of the dawn of the bottom.
Zhao Wei said that when the situation is broken, the opportunities are still greater than the risks, and although the overall systemic ** is weak, the structural ** is still standing.
Hua Chuang** believes that there is a liquidity inflection point outside, the Fed has raised interest rates in advance, the market has traded interest rate cuts in advance, there are policy expectations at the end of the year, fiscal expansion and monetary easing have cooperated, the valuation of A-shares has been at a low level, earnings have bottomed, and the capital side has also improved, and the probability of absence from spring restlessness is extremely low.
Zhang Gang, an analyst at Zhongyuan, said in a research report on December 26 that the stock index is expected to maintain a momentum pattern in the future, while it is still necessary to pay close attention to changes in policy, capital and external factors.
In terms of allocation, Zhang Gang suggested that investors pay attention to investment opportunities in industries such as fertilizers, oil, power and utilities.
Pay attention to the new energy sector that has fallen in the early stage, and be optimistic about the overall trend of the photovoltaic industry in 2024. In terms of operation, light index, heavy **, pay attention to investment opportunities in brokerages, new energy, energy, biomedicine, semiconductors, military industry, food and beverages and bottom-rebound stocks, and avoid junk stocks and theme stocks with high stock prices. Zhao Wei pointed out.
Huaxi ** said that the acceleration of plate rotation at the end of the year will become the main feature, and the large-cap style may have a short-term equilibrium due to the relative valuation comparison. In terms of allocation, the low-valuation dividend sector with abundant cash flow is used as the ballast stone, and the areas that will benefit from industrial catalysis and policy expectations will be the main line in the medium term, such as Huawei's industrial chain, semiconductors, consumer electronics, etc.
*: The Paper.