According to the latest S&P report, China's real estate market is about to bottom out and gradually recover in 2024. The report pointed out that the ** successive introduction of stabilityProperty market policyto the high-tier citiesproperty marketThere has been a positive impact, and consumer confidence, home sales and** have begun to stabilise. Expected in 2024Commercial housingSales will fall further, but much less. The report brought some comfort to the industry, and the real estate market is about to usher in the dawn of recovery.
Expanding: With ** stableProperty market policyChina's real estate market has finally ushered in the good news that it has not seen for a long time - it is about to bottom out and is beginning to gradually recover. This news is undoubtedly a great encouragement to the real estate industry, which has been trapped in a long downturn. The S&P report expressed optimism about the future of China's real estate market, believing that the stability of first-tier cities will have a positive impact on lower-tier citiesBuying a houseconfidence will gradually recover, which will drive the recovery process of the entire market. While real estate sales are still expected to decline in 2024, the decline will be significantly smaller, signaling the dawn of a recovery in the market.
The bottoming out of the real estate market is not just an empty adjective, but has a certain basis and theoretical basis. According toNational Bureau of StatisticsFrom January to October this year, the total real estate sales in the country fell by 4 percent year-on-year9%。However, looking at the past real estate cycle, the whole countryCommercial housingAnnual sales will eventually stabilize at the level of 10 trillion to 11 trillion yuan. This level of sales, coupled with the active intervention of **, will be avoidedCommercial housingSales showed a step-by-step downward trend. Of particular concern is the fact that first-tier cities will play a key role in the recovery of the property market, and their stabilization will provide confidence to lower-tier cities. According to preliminary confirmation, the recovery of first-tier cities has led to the improvement of the real estate market in surrounding cities, such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other cities in the Pearl River Delta region, which have begun to show a momentum of rebound. According to the data, the number of second-hand residential online signatures in Guangzhou has recently exceeded 10,000 units. It is foreseeable that under the further relaxation of regulatory policies, first- and second-tier cities will continue to drive the wholeproperty marketof resuscitation.
Expanding: The bottoming out of the real estate market is not an empty statement, it has a solid theoretical basis and data support. In recent years, the total sales of the real estate market have been showing a downward trend, and from January to October this year, it fell by 4 year-on-year9%。Historically, however, the whole countryCommercial housingAnnual sales will eventually stabilize at the level of 10 trillion to 11 trillion yuan. This level of sales, combined with the active intervention of **, will avoid a significant decline in real estate sales. It is worth noting that the first-tier cities have played a key role in the overall recovery process, and their stability will bring confidence to the lower-tier cities. At present, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other cities in the Pearl River Delta region have shown signs of rebounding, and the number of second-hand residential online signatures in Guangzhou has exceeded 10,000 sets. It is foreseeable that with the further relaxation of policies, first-tier and second-tier cities will continue to promote the wholeproperty marketof resuscitation.
Since the beginning of this year, the main line of regulation and control of the real estate market has been revolving around bailing out the market. According to reports, from January to November this year, more than 200 provinces, cities, counties and cities have issued more than 600 real estate regulation policies. In November, 49 regulatory measures were introduced. The regulatory policies include the abolition of purchase restrictions in second- and third-tier cities, as well as new breakthroughs in land price limits in first-tier cities. For example, Shenzhen has lowered the number of second homesDown paymentand optimized the standard of ordinary housing, while Guangzhou has canceled the price limit of land auctions. According to monitoring, 18 cities that have adopted the "first-pay-first-takes" approach to land sales have reinstated this rule. At present, only Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Ningbo still adhere to the land price cap policy. In addition, in order to stimulate sales, many cities have also joined the "old for new" campaign, and some cities have even launched a "30-day no reason to check out" ** campaign. The implementation of these policies has increasedproperty marketof vitality. According to the data, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in some cities continues to grow, thanks to the relaxation of purchase restrictions in some areas, as well as the lack of them beforeBuying a houseThe release of the demand for qualifications also shortens the cycle of housing replacement. Currently,Hundred Cities house pricesFor three consecutive months, the average number of newly built residential buildings in 100 cities increased by 005%。The governor of the central bank said that the market sentiment and ** in China's real estate market have begun to show signs of normalization and are close to bottoming.
Expansion: Since the beginning of this year, the main line of regulation and control of the real estate market has revolved around bailing out the market. According to reports, from January to November this year, more than 200 provinces, cities, counties and cities across the country have issued more than 600 real estate regulation policies, of which 49 were issued in November alone. These policies include both second- and third-tier cities where purchase restrictions have been lifted, as well as first-tier cities that have made new breakthroughs in land price restrictions. For example, Shenzhen is lowering the second suiteDown paymentAt the same time as optimizing the standard of ordinary housing, Guangzhou has abolished the price limit for land auctions. According to monitoring data, 18 cities have reinstated this rule in the "first-pays-first" approach to land transfers. At present, only Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Ningbo still adhere to the land price limit policy. In addition, in order to stimulate sales, many cities have also joined the "trade-in" campaign, and some cities have even launched a "30-day no reason to check out" campaign. The implementation of these policies has indeed increasedproperty marketof vitality. According to the data, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in some cities continued to be **, which was due to the relaxation of the purchase restriction policy and the previous noneBuying a houseThe release of qualification demand also shortens the cycle of housing replacement. Currently,Hundred Cities house pricesFor three consecutive months, the average number of newly built residential buildings in 100 cities increased by 005%。The governor of the central bank said that the sentiment and ** of China's real estate market are beginning to show signs of normalization and are close to bottoming.
With the launch of a series of stableProperty market policyThe real estate market is gradually turning around. According to the latest data, in the first 10 months of this year, real estate investment in the country increased by 99%, the highest growth rate since 2014. Among them, first- and second-tier citiesRoom ratesThe increase is obvious, and there is even an obvious phenomenon of "speculation" in some cities. property marketThe reason for the recovery is mainly inSupply and demandand the regulation of capital flows. On the one hand, the construction of land and housing security has been increased, and on the other hand, the central bank has continued to implement a prudent monetary policy, which has increased the cost of loans to commercial banks, and has increased the cost of loans to individualsBuying a houseLoans are scrutinized to prevent speculationBuying a house。At present, the financing environment for real estate development enterprises is relatively tight, which is further suppressedRoom ratesSoon**. In addition, various policies have been introduced to stabilize market expectations, such as increasing provident fund loans and lowering themBuying a houseDown paymentproportions, etc. The implementation of these policies propels:Buying a houseThe confidence of the people has been boosted, and it has been further promotedproperty marketof resuscitation. It is expected that with the help of policies, the real estate market will usher in a turnaround and further stabilize.
Expansion: With the launch of a series of stableproperty marketpolicy, the real estate market is gradually ushering in a turnaround. According to the latest data, in the first 10 months of this year, the country's real estate investment increased by 99%, the highest growth rate since 2014. Among them, first-tier and second-tier citiesRoom ratesThe increase is particularly obvious, and some cities have even seen an obvious phenomenon of "speculation". The main reason for the recovery of the real estate market lies in the fact that the real estate market is inSupply and demandand the regulation of capital flows. On the one hand, the construction of land and housing security has been increased, and on the other hand, the central bank has continued to implement a prudent monetary policy, which has increased the cost of loans to commercial banks, and has increased the cost of loans to individualsBuying a houseLoans are scrutinized to prevent speculationBuying a house。At present, the financing environment for real estate development enterprises is relatively tight, which is further suppressedRoom ratesMomentum that is too fast**. In addition, various policies have been introduced to stabilize market expectations, such as increasing and reducing provident fund loansBuying a houseDown paymentproportions, etc. The implementation of these policies has improvedBuying a houseThe confidence of the people has been further promotedproperty marketof resuscitation. It is expected that with the help of policies, the real estate market will usher in a turnaround and gradually stabilize.