Finance Associated Press, December 20 (edited by Huang Junzhi).Wall Street vs. Tesla (Tesla, Inc.)The outlook is gradually darkening, and at least two analysts have become more cautious about the EV maker in two days.
Analysts say that by 2024, some of Tesla's electric vehicles may no longer be eligible for subsidies in the United States and some European countries, which will put further pressure on the company's revenue at a time when demand for these cars is already slowing.
Investment Bank Tudor, Pickering, Holt & CoMatt Portillo, an analyst, wrote in a note Tuesday that "if Tesla continues to strive for growth next year, the loss of these incentives could further increase the risk of its price cuts." I expect Tesla's deliveries in the last three months of 2023 to be lower than average analysts' expectations. ”
The latest pessimistic comments from analysts are further evidence of Wall Street's deteriorating view of Tesla's performance. According to the data collected, analysts' average estimate of Tesla's fourth-quarter profit is down 55% from 12 months ago, while its estimate of 2024 profit is down 43%.
The data also shows that on the sales front, analysts averaged more than 48 percent of Tesla's fourth-quarter deliveries10,000 units. Portillo's ** is about 470,000 units, and it has a sell rating on the stock. RBC Capital Markets analyst Tom Narayan's ** about 4760,000 units, and its rating on the stock is equivalent to **.
On Monday, Narayan lowered its forecast for Tesla's deliveries in 2024 and 2025 to reflect "modest growth" in Model 3 and Model Y sales, citing headwinds such as increased competition and the loss of federal incentives. He said that some models of Tesla's mass-market Model 3 will lose the full federal tax credit next year.
Tudor's Portillo said the company could face similar problems in France and Germany. After Tesla's first-of-its-kind third-quarter results warning in October, demand across the EV industry is widely expected to slow. In addition to this, the issue of these subsidies will arise.
In the wake of these warnings, General Motors, Ford Motor and car rental company Hertz Global Holdings Incand other established car companies have made similar pessimisms about electric vehicles**.
A large part of the overall weakness in EVs is that the first movers who are happy to pay for the new technology may have already bought them, while mainstream buyers remain cautious about the best and fledgling EV ecosystems.
"The average** of new EVs has fallen by about 21% since 2022, but consumers are still hesitant to buy EVs, with most citing battery reliability to be left to be desired, the lack of available public charging stations, and the longer time it takes to fully charge are the main hurdles they can't overcome," Cowen analyst Jeffrey Osborne wrote in the latest report. ”
As a result, for Tesla, which only sells electric vehicles, analysts' profit and revenue expectations have been declining. Portillo and Narayan's worries about next year are not alone.
On Friday, Emmanuel Rosner, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, said that the "bigger risk" for Tesla amid a slowdown in EV adoption is that growth and earnings in 2024 could be lower than expected.