How long will it take to see the tail of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict?
In 2023, imagine that we are experiencing the flames of this Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Gaza is in turmoil through 2023, and we are here to wonder if this conflict will have a head in 2024Let me be honest, I think in 2024, this smoke will dissipate, and it is very likely that it will end in the first quarter. But when the mouth stops, the fighting may not have completely stopped, but may have only been reduced to the mutual stabbing of small troops.
First, let's take a look at the situation on the Israeli side. Israel's economy is now under great pressure, with the fiscal deficit in November reaching NIS 16.6 billion, or $4.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of nearly 10 timesImagine what that must be. It is said that the war will cost Israel more than $50 billion, which is 10% of their GDPEach launch of the Iron Dome missile costs $50,000, while Hamas's rockets cost only a few hundred dollars. Bombarding with high intensity every day, spending money faster than burning money. This money could have been used for some domestic economic development, but it was all lost because of the war, which is simply unbearable for Israel.
Second, there is a labor shortage. Originally, Israel issued 100,000 work permits to Palestinians, but when the war began, these permits were of course useless. Coupled with the mobilization of 400,000 reservists, no one has done the original job. The 250,000 residents of the border area have been evacuated, and it is naturally impossible to work, which makes Israel's labor shortage as high as 20%!Because of the lack of manpower, it lost $3.6 billion a month.
The political pressure is also considerable, mainly on the issue of hostages. Hamas still holds 139 Israeli hostages, and the longer the war drags on, the greater the risk of death and the country's trust in Netanyahu** is getting lower. On the 25th, Netanyahu set out three conditions for achieving peace, including the destruction of Hamas, the militarization of the Gaza Strip, and the deradicalization of Palestinian society. This is the first time since the conflict began that Netanyahu has publicly mentioned the terms of a ceasefire. But to be honest, none of these three conditions can be realized. In the future, Israel will have to find some reason to find a step down for itself and stop large-scale military operations.
Look at the international front, as Israel's indiscriminate attacks on Palestinians in the Gaza Strip have resulted in the deaths of a large number of civilians, especially women and children. This made the Western countries that supported Israel at the beginning unbearable, and they changed their tunes to condemn the major humanitarian disaster caused by Israel. Even in the United States, there have been ** people who have begun to make statements in support of Palestine. The longer the war lasts and the more severe the humanitarian crisis, the greater the pressure from the international community on Israel.
Netanyahuti mentions three conditions, but in reality it is estimated that even one of them will be difficult to achieve. The pressure on Israel will mount, and if a ceasefire is not achieved soon, the coming month will be crucial.
So, the cessation of this war is not a problem for Hamas, but for Israel. The longer the war continues, the greater the pressure on Israel, and if a ceasefire is not achieved as soon as possible, Israel will become more and more dangerous. The coming month will be a pivotal moment.
So what do you think of this Palestinian-Israeli conflict?Someone commented: "Really, just such a thing as Palestine and Israel seems to be falling apart." Anyway, I don't think anyone wants to really benefit from this war, and it is the common people who suffer in the end. This netizen's words are indeed thought-provoking. Behind a conflict, how many people's livelihoods have been disrupted, and how many families' happiness has been destroyed, who will really be the winner?
As for China's position, I think we should pay more attention to the safety of civilians. War should not be the only means of solving the problem, and the international community should make concerted efforts to bring the Palestinian-Israeli conflict to an early end. As for when the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will end, the only thing we hope for is that peace will return to this land as soon as possible, so that people can live and work in peace and contentment, and no longer be devastated by war.