In order to win the "great power competition" with China, the United States has always hoped to establish an "Indo-Asia-Pacific version of NATO." In order to attract more countries to "join in", the first thing is to drive a wedge between China and other countries in the region. Recently, the Philippines has been agitated in the South China Sea "mainly to create a China threat theory to drive a wedge between China and ASEAN countries." Despite still being a**,But there are signs that this will be a failure. After thwarting the "divisive plan" of the United States, China will win the dominance of the Asian century.
It is said that the 21st century is the Asian century, so since the Obama era, the strategic focus of the United States has begun to shift eastward. The aim was to suppress China in order to dominate the Asian century.
In order to suppress China, it is first necessary to pull other countries into the region, and once an anti-China alliance is established to isolate China from the American order, the United States can easily gain dominance.
When the United States created the South China Sea crisis and the dispute over the Diaoyu Islands, it took advantage of the worries and concerns of countries in the region about China's rejuvenation and rise to drive a wedge between China and ASEAN. I hope that the "China threat theory" can be realized.
At that time, the Philippines was the most active cooperating with the United States in the South China Sea. Although a farce of so-called "international arbitration" has been staged, China's firm position and attitude have always been considerably restrained.
Not only did the Philippines turn around, but ASEAN countries have basically given up their concerns about China and instead strengthened their cooperative relations with China.
Of course, all of this has to do with Obama's successor, Donald Trump's push for America First. Let the world realize the destructive and terrible nature of US hegemony.
After Biden took office, he positioned China as the first challenger, or the first target of key suppression. Naturally, the Indo-Pacific strategy has become a strategic priority for the United States.
To promote the Indo-Pacific strategy, we must first establish an anti-China alliance. Although it has established some small circles with Japan, Britain, India, Canada, Australia and other countries, after all, ASEAN is also an important strategic fulcrum, which is related to the US strategy of controlling the South China Sea.
Because ASEAN has made tremendous development achievements in strengthening cooperation with China, it has explicitly rejected the United States' request to take sides. On the contrary, it is to further strengthen the cooperative relationship with China.
In this regard, the United States is not giving up, but still wants to work the theory of the China threatOr try your best to stir up trouble in the South China Sea. On the one hand, it is to drive a wedge with China, and on the other hand, to destabilize the situation, so that the United States has an excuse to intervene and can also strengthen its regional influence.
Although ASEAN as a whole has a firm stance on the issue of cooperation with China, what can surprise the United States is the anti-China stance of Marcos Jr., the newly inaugurated Philippine government.
The United States and the Philippines have not only strengthened their military cooperation, but the Philippines has once again made a presence in the South China Sea with the encouragement and support of the United States. The United States just wants to create the illusion that China is bullying the small with the bigThis would strengthen the fear of China in ASEAN, especially in the South China Sea countries. I hope ASEAN will stand up and support the Philippines. This has also achieved the role of dividing the relationship between China and ASEAN.
However, to the disappointment of the United States, China has maintained a high degree of restraint despite the Philippines' desire to take the initiative to seek a fight. Importantly, ASEAN countries have simply ignored the China-Philippines friction. On the contrary, the cooperation between China and ASEAN is still deepening.
ASEAN countries do not speak out in the dispute between China and the Philippines, and the "subtext" is a matter between China and the Philippines。The "subtext" of the benign advancement of the ASEAN-China "Code of Conduct in the South China Sea" negotiations is to oppose the Philippines for nothing to do. It is important that this is a "disregard" of the United States.
The reason for this situation.
First, China is the main driving force for the recovery of the world economy。Cooperation with China is the only option.
Second, ASEAN as a whole has gained great benefits from cooperation with China. Whether it is RCEP or the Belt and Road cooperation, great achievements have been made. Naturally, we must do our utmost to maintain this hard-won good situation.
The third isOnce the United States and the Philippines are alienated from China or even side with the United States and the Philippines, the situation in the region will seriously deteriorate, and it will naturally be itself that will suffer.
Fourth, the double-edged effect of the China threat theory. It is precisely because of China's great increase in strength that there will definitely be no good fruit to eat if it provokes China.
Fifth, we have long realized that the United States is unreliable. The United States only wants to use the countries in the region as gunmen. The United States can only be cannon fodder. And the United States will not and cannot afford to provide protection. Ukraine is the best example of this. And Europe, which is in a security dilemma, is a prime example.
The above five points determine that ASEAN will not side with the United States, let alone give up mutually beneficial and win-win cooperation with China. EspeciallyThe acceleration of change in the world itself means that the era of American hegemony is a thing of the past. This is admittedly by the United States itself.
Not only is ASEAN silent, but the EU's voice is also weak. Although the European Union has also made a public statement a few days ago. ButThe first is to perfunctory the United States, the second is to put pressure on China on economic and trade issues, and the third is to show its own sense of existence and political correctness.
The European Union wants to get involved in India The Asia-Pacific region has already begun. And the EU's Indo-Pacific strategy itself is actually rejecting the United States. Europe's bottom line is not to decouple and not engage in bloc confrontation.
ASEAN is not participating, the EU is not active, and only Japan, the United Kingdom, Australia and other countries stand on the sidelines and cheer.
In this way, no matter how much trouble the Philippines makes, it will not help. It doesn't matter whether China and the Philippines fight or not in the South China Sea.
With the ability of today's squadron, it should be very easy to fight a battle in the South China Sea. The Philippines is not Ukraine, and the United States will not take the Philippines too seriously, let alone fight with China in the South China Sea.
At present, the United States has repeatedly emphasized the "US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty," but it does not want the Philippines to retreat anytime soon. That would be tantamount to declaring the defeat of the United States again.
The Philippines seems to be looking for trouble, which will involve a lot of energy from China, but in fact, it is also in the middle of it.
Safeguarding sovereignty and security in the South China Sea is at the core of our core interests. It is also a core interest to protect the South China Sea, an important sea line of communication. It is necessary to strengthen the control of the South China Sea.
Importantly, China's escalation of military installations and military operations in the South China Sea is a countermeasure to U.S. "freedom of navigation." Preventing the United States from exercising its power in the South China Sea is also China's need to build an oceanic navy.
Regardless of whether the final war is fought or not, this time the United States and the Philippines will face another defeat. And with these two incidents, it will be even more difficult for the United States to find another ** person.
The incident in the South China Sea is also a major test for China's relations with ASEAN. In the future, China's relations with ASEAN will be more stable, and the situation in the South China Sea will also be more stable.
The failure of the US "discord plan" is not only the Philippines, but also a major failure. That is the recent change in the situation in Myanmar.
Myanmar was once a wedge that the United States wanted to drive into Southeast Asia. Aung San Suu Kyi was also once regarded as the best person in the United States and the West.
Although Aung San Suu Kyi once controlled Burmese politics, she did not become a pawn of the United States, as the United States wanted. Despite this, the government was overthrown by a military coup.
Aung San Suu Kyi is not strong, after all, she still wants to promote Western-style democracy, that is, there is still hope for change. But the army ** is different. It completely shattered the hope of the United States to turn Myanmar into a wedge.
In the recent turmoil in Myanmar, the United States has not been able to intervene at all, nor has it dared to intervene, but this time the political turmoil has helped China a lotIt will help China completely eliminate those China-related criminal groups.
Although the current wave of turmoil in Myanmar has been implicated in China, ASEAN countries have unanimously remained silent. In fact, it is tacitly accepted that China alone is in charge of the overall situation. Even Europe is silent.
A few days ago, the Myanmar military held peace talks with the Kokang, De'ang, and Arakan armies in China, and reached agreements on such matters as a temporary ceasefire and maintaining dialogue. This is the result of China's mediation. On the surface, the relationship between China and Myanmar will be strengthened. This is equivalent to the complete failure of the previous Myanmar strategy of the United States, and it also shows the high degree of strategic mutual trust between China and ASEAN.
ASEAN is an important fulcrum of the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, and it cannot be effectively advanced without or without the ability to build this important fulcrum. It can be said that the Indo-Pacific strategy is basically dead.
Instead, the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy emphasizes an American-style vision of freedom, openness, and prosperity. This will obviously contribute to the promotion of a Chinese-style free, open, inclusive, equal, mutually beneficial and prosperous Asia-Pacific geopolitics.
ASEAN, India, and the South Pacific island countries are the three fulcrums of the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy. ASEAN can't count on it. India is also always half-hearted. Nearly half of the South Pacific island countries have friendly relations with China. At present, only Japan and South Korea are still firmly positioned, and the Indo-Pacific strategy of the United States cannot be promoted.
The definition of the United States is currently an era of great power competition in which Sino-US competition reconstructs the world order. The next decade is a critical period.
But the United States' key strategy cannot be advanced. It can be said that the strategic initiative is being lost.
At present, the cooperative relationship between China and Middle Eastern countries is entering a new era. However, the major readjustment of the US Middle East strategy and the current Israeli-Kazakhstan war have caused the Arab countries in the Middle East to alienate themselves from the United States. The de-Americanization of geopolitics in the Middle East is accelerating.
Cooperation between China and the five Central Asian countries is also constantly being strengthened. At present, only India in South Asia and Japan and South Korea in Northeast Asia are uncertain.
In this situation, the United States also wants to compete with ChinaI am afraid that the strategic dominance of the Asia-Pacific region will be out of play. China is making its final sprint to become a modern power. However, the United States is powerless to accelerate its efforts to get rid of China, nor can it concentrate its efforts on stopping China's rapid progress. Instead, he fell into a strategic dilemma. The United States needs time to readjust its China strategy and concentrate on competing with China。While suppressing China, the United States is also creating good strategic space and time for China, and it is also creating impetus for China. I really have to thank the United States.