1. On Monday, the world's most important ** market was closed because of Christmas, and northbound funds were also suspended from trading, and A-shares finally relied on their own strength to successfully hold 2,900 points again. The number of *** in the two cities is 2045, and the number of *** is 3126, from the perspective of the comparison of long and short forces, the bears still have the advantage. Judging from the time-sharing handicap, it is still mainly 28**, which shows that blue chips and white horses still have funds in active operation, which is also the main force to protect 2900 points.
Second, until December 18, the local property market all kinds of favorable relaxation policies more than 750 times, covering 330 large and medium-sized cities across the country, but the current situation is still very grim, the new housing market is still in the adjustment of the price of the market, the second-hand housing market is still depressed, the phenomenon of obvious recovery is not obvious, at present, the main reason is the expected decrease in residents' income, the trend of housing prices is increasing, and one of the more critical is that China's birth rate is negative, the future population Afford such a huge real estate market.
3. The offshore RMB exchange rate did not continue to fall on Monday, but turned up, which may be related to the Federal Reserve's early "interest rate cut" in 2024 and the announcement of a number of major state-owned banks in China to cut the listed interest rate on deposits. At the same time, China's CPI tends to decline, and the pressure on the US to raise interest rates has begun to reverse, which has also made it more difficult for the PBOC to cut interest rates. In addition, Commerzbank economist Tommy Wu also said that the People's Bank of China may further reduce the MLF rate and guide the bank to lower the LPR next year. As a result, the market expects the economy to continue its "recovery" next year, which could boost the value of the renminbi.
Fourth, the recent positive policies of the market have been accumulating, and they are still making efforts, and the bottom of the market has been consolidated. The current policy is still relatively positive, and various policies to stabilize growth are frequently introduced, and with the gradual emergence of policy effectiveness, the future economic data is also expected to gradually improve. At present, the domestic economy is generally showing a bottoming out and rebounding trend, and it is expected that the next ** field will show a high probability of rebounding, and the overall opportunity may be relatively balanced. The trend of A-shares is weak at this stage, mainly due to weak market expectations, limited incremental funds, and the strength of favorable policies in the early stage has not yet been able to reverse the situation. At present, most of the impetus of the market comes from the easing of overseas liquidity.