Cooling changes Possibility of frost damage to wheat?A comprehensive analysis of this year's situation
Preface. Farmers have successfully planted wheat in the rainy season and have taken various measures to promote the growth of winter wheat. However, the latest weather forecast shows that there have been some changes in the initial forecast of widespread cooling on the 14th and 15th, and it is now expected that from the 16th to the 23rd, Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi and other places will usher in a wide range of strong cooling weather, and the minimum temperature may reach about minus 20 degrees Celsius. Such low temperatures are quite rare for winter wheat, and there is almost no such weather in December except for the Northeast. As a result, wheat is likely to suffer from frost damage, and some even freeze to death.
The extent of this year's frost has a lot to do with the sowing conditions everywhere. Due to the good moisture conditions, the sown area is relatively large, the sowing amount has increased, and the wheat growth is more vigorous, far exceeding that of previous years. Plots that were strong, watered with cold water, suppressed or applied in advance were relatively less affected by frost damage.
On the other hand, plots that have not been watered, suppressed or applied with pesticides will also suffer from winter wheat frost damage to varying degrees due to this cold wave. Of course, the exact situation is uncertain, which is why I stressed earlier that people should take advantage of the fine weather from the 7th to the 9th to take proper precautions. While taking precautions does not guarantee 100% protection from frost damage, it can at least reduce or mitigate the degree of frost damage.
According to the latest weather forecast, there will also be rain and snow in many areas from the 10th to the 15th, with one or two snowfalls ranging in size in some areas. If it snows, it will be excellent for wheat. The snowfall is like a thick quilt covering the wheat, and even if the cold wave arrives on the 16th, the frost damage will be alleviated to a certain extent.
In addition, as I have already mentioned, the latest weather forecast shows that the big cold will be postponed until the 16th. You might say it's just a delay for a day or two, and it won't make a difference. But in fact it is not. Why is wheat suffering from frost damage to varying degrees this year?On the one hand, the temperature has dropped significantly, and on the other hand, this year's wheat has only one chance to be refined.
The postponement of the massive cooling actually gave the wheat a second chance to forge at low temperatures, a period of five or six days between the 10th and 15th. In this way, the wheat can undergo two low-temperature forgings, which improves the cold resistance and reduces the degree of frost damage. To sum up, this year's large area of moisture sowing, large sowing amount, vigorous growth of wheat, coupled with the high probability of obvious cold waves, resulting in a probability of frost damage to wheat is about 40%.
Finally, I would like to remind everyone that today is the 10th, the temperature is starting to drop, and there will be rain and snow in many places. Therefore, people should stop pouring frozen water, suppressing and using chemicals to avoid other problems caused by the drop in temperature. Thank you for your continued support of Fat Farmer. Continue*** to bring you more agricultural information. Finally, to sum up, the probability of frost damage to wheat this year is about 40%, which will have a certain impact on wheat yield.
Summary. Based on the analysis of data and expert opinion, combined with previous experience, I have come to the conclusion that the probability of frost damage to wheat is 40%. Hopefully, this information will help farmers better prepare for the coming cold weather and protect their winter wheat. At the same time, I hope you will continue to pay attention"Fertilizer farmers"and we will bring you more agricultural information. Thank you for your support!