The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged since raising interest rates in July this year, although it has not explicitly stated that it will stop raising interest rates, but the market consensus is that three consecutive pauses mean the end of interest rate hikes. However, the Federal Reserve has been releasing policy signals that it is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, but the market has advanced the start of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle to March next year, and expects the Fed to cut interest rates 6 times next year, with a cumulative rate cut of 150 basis points, that is, by November next year, the U.S. federal interest rate will be 525%-5.50% to 375%-4.00% range, market expectations significantly exceeded the 75 basis point decline given by the dot plot of the Fed's December 2023 interest rate meeting.
It should be noted that the rapid decline in inflation in the United States is not based on the sharp decline in personal consumption demand, but more dependent on the repair of the system and the decline of energy.
Some analysts pointed out that the U.S. job market remains relatively resilient. As of November 2023, the U.S. unemployment rate is 37%, up 03% (3. as of January 2023.)4%), and the non-farm job vacancy rate was 53%, from the peak of 7 in March 20224% fell by 2 percentage points, and the labor force participation rate was 628%, up nearly 3 percentage points from the low level since the epidemic. In addition, a premature policy pivot will inevitably affect the effect of the previous policy, and inflation may return. Therefore, there is an expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates a little later than expected.
At the same time, the US ** in November next year will also be an influencing factor, and the Fed may also choose to avoid this time in order to avoid being tied to **, so the best time is more likely to be the middle of next year.
On Thursday local time, one of the most hawkish members of the ECB's Governing Council.
1. Robert Holzmann, head of the Austrian Central Bank, said that it is too early to talk about reducing borrowing costs, and that such a move in 2024 is uncertain.
"Even if the ECB has already experienced an unprecedented ten consecutive rate hikes, there is no guarantee that it will cut rates in 2024," he said. Monetary policy normalization has already shown its impact on slowing inflation, but it is too early to consider a rate cut. Holzmann also noted that eurozone inflation could reach the ECB's 2% target within the next two years, although the road to achieving this target will be fraught with "challenges".
Although the market's expectations for interest rate cuts are still hot, the central bank's ** is still "stubborn". Earlier this month, the ECB left interest rates unchanged for the second time, though President Christine Lagarde said it might be too early to bet on a rate cut as early as March next year. The current slowdown in inflation is partly due to base effects, and consumers** are likely to pick up again in the coming months.