Recently, there has been heavy rain and snow in many places across the country, which has a great impact on electricity, transportation and the production and life of the masses. The situation of disaster prevention and relief is grim, and we must attach great importance to it. It is necessary to strengthen traffic and power inspections, remove ice and snow in a timely manner, and ensure the safety and smoothness of the transportation network and power grid. It is necessary to improve the capacity of coal, electricity, oil and gas, strengthen emergency rescue preparations, and do a good job in energy security and warm supply. It is necessary to increase overall planning and scheduling, strengthen the production, marketing and supply of important livelihood commodities, and maintain stability.
Bureau of Statistics:In November,The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6 percent year-on-year6%, up 087%；The total retail sales of consumer goods were 425 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101%。The surveyed urban unemployment rate nationwide was 50%, unchanged from the previous month. From January to November, the national investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 4608 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29%, of which, private investment fell by 05%。
SSE News:A number of banks in Shanghai have adjusted their housing loans according to the new policy, and the interest rate on the first home loan has been reduced to 41%, second home loan interest rate as low as 44%。Bank officials said that the newly accepted loans will be implemented according to the new policy, and the existing housing loans before the new policy will not be adjustedAt present, "whether to adjust the interest rate of existing housing loans" is being discussed and discussed, and no notice has been received yet.
Macroeconomics
1. Central Bank:Comprehensively use a variety of monetary policy tools to maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity. We will increase counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, guide the rational growth and balanced allocation of credit, and improve the quality and efficiency of financial support for the real economy. We will continue to deepen the market-oriented reform of interest rates and promote a steady and moderate decline in the cost of comprehensive social financing. Actively revitalize the financial resources that are inefficiently occupied and improve the efficiency of capital use. We will continue to improve the managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, adjusted with reference to a basket of currencies, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.
2. Ministry of Finance:January-November,The national general public budget revenue was 200131 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 79%。The national general public budget expenditure was 238462 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49%。* Transaction stamp duty was 169.7 billion yuan, down 33.3 billion year-on-year4%。
3. Central Bank:At the end of the third quarter,The total assets of financial institutions were 45282 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 95%，Among them, the total assets of banking institutions were 40977 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 96%；*The total assets of the business are 1346 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46%；The total assets of insurance institutions are 2959 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 108%。The liabilities of financial institutions were 4133 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 97%, of which the liabilities of banking institutions were 37638 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98%；*The liabilities of the business institution are 1011 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44%；The liabilities of insurance institutions were 2681 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 118%。
4. Ministry of State Security:At present, the economic field has increasingly become an important battlefield for great power competition, and the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment have risen, which will further promote the economic recovery, and it is necessary to overcome some internal difficulties and deal with some external challenges. Adhere to the equal emphasis on crackdown and prevention, management and services, and the overall internal and external situationMulti-means, all-round and efficient response to new challenges in the economic field.
5. CCTV News:The full-time equivalent of R&D personnel in China increased from 324 in 201270,000 person-years increased to 635 in 202240,000 man-yearsRanked first in the world. The number of highly cited researchers in the world has increased from 111 in 2014 to 1,169 in 2022, ranking second in the world. More than 80% of the participants in the National Key R&D Program are under the age of 45.
6. China Securities Association: It is recommended that the deficit rate can be moderately increased in 2024To improve quality and efficiency, promote the boost of domestic demand and market confidence, monetary policy should pay more attention to the coordination of aggregate, structure and rhythm, effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas, and accelerate the construction of "three major projects" such as affordable housing. Looking ahead to 2024, policies to expand domestic demand are expected to support consumption to continue its moderate recovery.
Real estate dynamics
1. Bureau of Statistics:January-November,The national real estate development investment was 104045 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 94%；The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 831345 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 72%。The area of new housing construction was 874.56 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 212%。The sales area of commercial housing was 100509 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 80%。The sales of commercial housing were 105318 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52%。At the end of November, the area of commercial housing for sale was 653.85 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 180%。
2. Shanghai:On December 15, the second round of the four batches of land auctions this year was held. This time, 4 residential lands were transferredAll of them were sold, and the total transaction price was about 213900 million yuan. The most popular is the 45-02 plot of MHPO-1102 unit in Jiangchuan Community, Yuanqiao Town, Minhang District, with a transaction price of about 252.4 billion yuan, the transaction floor price is 32,230 square meters, and the premium rate is 10%.
3. Bureau of Statistics:In November,Among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, 59 and 69 cities saw a month-on-month decline in the sales of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing, respectivelyThis is an increase of 2 and 3 respectively from the previous month. Sales of newly built commercial residential buildings and second-hand residential buildings** in first-tier cities decreased by 03% and 14%。Sales of newly built commercial residential buildings and second-hand residential buildings** in second-tier cities decreased by 03% and 07%, the decline was 01 percentage point and 02 percentage points.
4. **Times:The first private enterprise consumer infrastructure REITs, and the first community-based commercial REITs project with supermarket retail formatsJia physical beauty consumer REIT was officially approved. The underlying assets are 4 community commercial properties, all of which are located in the core area of Beijing, with a total construction area of about 7790,000 square meters, and the total appraised value of the target real estate for the current period is 100.2 billion yuan.
Stocktaking
On Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 294256 points, **056%, with a turnover of 32208.4 billion. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index was reported at 938533 points, **035%, with a turnover of 41112.4 billion. GEM index reported 184850 points, **065%, with a turnover of 17236.4 billion. Overall, there are more than 3,400 stocks in the whole market, and the turnover of the two cities is 733.2 billion, a decrease of 3.8 billion from the previous trading day. In terms of sectors, short dramas, e-commerce, media, real estate and other sectors were among the top gainers, while innovative drugs, traditional Chinese medicine, pharmaceutical business, and CPO were among the top decliners. Northbound funds sold a net of 41 throughout the day6.6 billion, of which 33 were net sold through Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect7.3 billion yuan, and the net selling of Shenzhen Stock Connect was 79.3 billion yuan.
Friday,The Hang Seng Index rose 238%，1679219 o'clock. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 222% at 378069。The state-owned enterprises index rose 228%，reported 570039 points. On the disk, Sunac China rose more than 16%, Jingdong Group rose more than 6%, and Oriental Selection fell more than 5%. Southbound funds were net sellers of 39HK$6.3 billion. Among them, Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shanghai) net selling 16HK $7 billion, with a net sale of 22 in Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shenzhen).HK$9.3 billion.
As of December 15, there were 236 listed companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange, and there were no new ones on the same day. The total market capitalization is 41298.6 billion yuan, with a turnover of 15.3 billion3.1 billion yuan.
4. Financing balance of the two cities:As of December 14, the financing balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was reported at 83721.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 4 from the previous trading day9.4 billion yuan;The financing balance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was reported at 75950.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 17 from the previous trading day0.2 billion yuan. The two cities totaled 15,9672.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 21 from the previous trading day9.6 billion yuan.
5. CCTV News:In order to help Xiong'an New Area undertake Beijing's non-capital functions, improve the service of the headquarters of central enterprises.
2. Functions of subsidiaries or innovative business sectorsHebei Equity Exchange recently moved to Xiong'an New Area and changed its name to Xiong'an Equity Exchange.
6. China Securities Regulatory Commission:The Rules for Share Repurchase of Listed Companies were revised and promulgated. Relaxation of the existing conditions for buybacks that are "necessary to preserve the value of the company and shareholders' equity".The trigger condition "the company's *** decline has reached 30% in 20 consecutive trading days" has been adjusted to "the cumulative decline has reached 20%".Lower the trigger threshold. Add the condition of "necessary to maintain the company's value and shareholders' equity" to repurchase, and take "** lower than the highest *** 50% in the most recent year" as one of the trigger conditions to increase the convenience of repurchase.
7. China Securities Regulatory Commission: approved Wuxi Guolian Development (Group) to become a major shareholder of MinshengGuolian Group was transferred to Minsheng in accordance with the law**34700,000,000 shares.
8. Gravitational Media (22 days and 12 boards):The company's main business is brand marketing, performance marketing, social marketing, e-commerce marketing and operation services and data consulting services. Currently,The company's main business does not involve Douyin short ** paid business. The market will use the company as a short drama concept stock. The company is not involved in the production, operation and other related businesses of short drama content.
9. Shengxiang Biotechnology: did not consider participating in the equity transfer of Kehua Biotechnology. In May 2021, Shengxiang Biotech announced that it planned to take 19500 million yuan purchased Kehua Biotechnology 1863% of the shares, but the transfer was terminated three months later due to the failure to complete the equity transfer.
10. Sound Fly Storage (4 boards):The company has no ** reports or market rumors that need to be clarified or responded to, and there are no other major events that may have a greater impact on the company's stock priceIt does not involve humanoid robot products and artificial intelligence products.
11. Fulai New Materials (3 plates):The company's main business is advertising inkjet printing materials, label printing materials, electronic functional materials, new film materials, adhesive materials and other industrial consumer goods and high-end intelligent equipment. As of now, there is no revenue or profit from sensor-related businesses.
Wealth Spotlight
1. State Administration of Financial Supervision: Non-financial institutions shall not become controlling shareholders of pension insurance companiesThat is, shareholders who hold more than 1 3 shares of the company, or whose capital contribution and voting rights are sufficient to have a controlling influence on the resolutions of the shareholders (general meeting) of the insurance company.
2. Foreign Exchange Trading Center:Starting from December 18, the trading hours of interbank foreign currency pairs and foreign currency money markets will be adjusted from 7:00-23:30 to 7:00-3:00 the next dayExtended trading hours for interbank foreign currency pairs and foreign currency money markets. The foreign currency pair market includes spot, forward, swap, currency swap and options.
3. Financial breakfast:Hot spots out non-stop, track what you want to hear. What's going on with the "dirty stalls" that young people occupy in front of the school?Why do young people retaliate and crowd 35 points hotel?Young people are keen to be cyber judgesHow do young people live in a nursing home?Friends of the wealth, quickly scroll to the end of the article to view today's financial secretary tracking @trend
Industry Watch
1. State Administration of Foreign Exchange: Decided to expand the implementation of the pilot high-level opening policy for cross-border investment in Shanghai, Jiangsu Province, Guangdong Province (including Shenzhen), Beijing Municipality, Zhejiang Province (including Ningbo City) and Hainan ProvinceFacilitate more business entities to handle cross-border investment business in compliance with regulations, and promote high-quality development with high-level opening-up.
2. Wang Bohua of China Photovoltaic Industry Association:From January to October, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 14256 GW, up 145% year-on-year and a record high. Up to now, more than half of the country's new installed power generation capacity comes from photovoltaic power generation. Investment in solar is expected to reach US$382 billion in 2023 and US$371 billion in oil. This means that for the first time in history, solar investment will surpass oil.
3. China Audio-video and Digital Publishing Association:In 2023,The actual sales revenue of China's e-sports game market was 13294.5 billion yuanA year-on-year increase of 1285%。The e-sports game market is gradually showing a rebounding trend, and the growth of e-sports game product revenue is mainly due to the long-term operation of the top e-sports games, and the fundamentals are stable.
4. The Paper:Overseas short dramas have become the most popular content outlet this year. At present, more than ninety percent of the Chinese film and television teams in Los Angeles have made short dramas, and the director's schedule is generally scheduled after March next year. Skit actors** have risen to about $400 a day, close to the middle of the American film and television industry.
5. South***Wenjie, Great Wall, Geely, VOYAH, Kia and many other car companies have questioned the results of the winter test of Chedi. The healthy development of the automotive industry requires the establishment of a scientific and standardized evaluation system for new energy vehicles.
6. Energy Bureau:In November,The electricity consumption of the whole society was 763 billion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 116%。In terms of industries, the electricity consumption of the primary industry was 9.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 122%；The electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 527.7 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 98%；The electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 132.1 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 209%。
Released the Three-Year Action Plan for "Data Elements" (2024-2026) (Draft for Comments). By the end of 2026, the breadth and depth of application scenarios of data elements will be greatly expanded, and a number of data vendors and third-party professional service providers with strong innovation capabilities and great market influence will be cultivatedThe average annual growth rate of the data industry is more than 20%, and the scale of data transactions has doubled.
8. Shanghai Municipal Government and other five departments:Formulate the "Implementation Measures for Encouraging the Purchase and Use of New Energy Vehicles in Shanghai". On the whole, the previous round of policy arrangements has been continuedIndividual users and unit users will continue to be supported by free special license plates for the purchase of new energy vehicles.
9. Seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology:Accelerate the cultivation of specialized and new "little giants" and individual champions in the field of commercial display, vehicle audio-visual, and audio. Support backbone enterprises to become bigger and strongerSupport artificial intelligence enterprises to develop large models of audio-visual applications. Promote enterprises to establish an advanced quality management system, carry out quality management ability evaluation, and encourage enterprises to climb to excellent quality.
10. State Administration of Radio, Film and Television:Accelerate the development of ultra-high-definition television, and promote the optimization and upgrading of the entire ultra-high-definition end-to-end industry chain. Accelerate the construction of new radio and television networks, and accelerate the realization of the goals of "one province, one network" and "one national network". Continue to deepen and promote the three-stage TV "nesting doll" charging and complex operation governanceAdhere to both the symptoms and the root causes, lead from point to area, and promote the high-quality development of the industry with the effect of "dual governance".
11、semi：Storage-related capital expenditures will see the largest decline in 2023 due to weak demand for memory from businesses and consumers. DRAM equipment sales remain stable, with modest growth of 1% in 2023 and 3% in 2024, and 20% in 2025to $15.5 billion.
12、canalys：Q3,Global shipments of personal smart audio devices increased by 3% year-on-year to 1100 million units,Developed regions have struggled, while emerging markets have seen strong growth. Due to the continued penetration of TWS in the mass market, TWS accounted for 73% of overall personal smart audio device shipments.
Company news
1. Xinhuanet:On the evening of December 15, a screenshot circulated on the Internet showed that Liu Qiangdong's vice president of human resources had gone to Shaanxi to recruit Dong Yuhui with Liu Qiangdong's autograph, and the talks went smoothly, and it was very likely that he would go to JD.com. JD.com has not responded to the incident. In response to this rumor,Dong Yuhui said that it is not true and has not contacted any company at present.
2. Kuaishou: The commercial promotion and launch of the third-party micro-short drama mini program will be officially stopped at 20:00 on December 31. This is to guide the healthy development of the paid short drama business and consolidate its own short drama content and industrial ecological construction.
Global vision
1. CCTV News:December 15th,The snow in Moscow has reached 49 centimeters. This figure reached the highest since meteorological records began in Moscow. Recently, many places in Russia have been experiencing snowstorms, and some areas have been interrupted by extreme weather**.
2. IMF: Even if the Fed signals that it will pivot policy next year, other central banks around the world will not rush to ease their efforts to fight inflation. Some countries declared victory prematurely, and then inflation became more entrenched, making the battle even harder.
3. Japan:In the week of December 4-10, a total of 166,690 cases of influenza were reported from about 5,000 designated medical institutions across JapanThe average number reaches the alert level.
Financial data
Domestic
1. State Administration of Foreign Exchange:In November,The bank settled 1,241.2 billion yuan of foreign exchange, sold 1,417.3 billion yuan, and had a deficit of 176.1 billion yuan. From January to November, the cumulative foreign exchange settlement was 140988 billion yuan, the cumulative foreign exchange sales were 145913 billion yuan, and the cumulative foreign exchange settlement and sales deficit was 492.5 billion yuan.
On December 15, a total of 6,266 companies were listed, a decrease of 2 on the same day, and the turnover was 28.3 billion. The three boards were reported at 90373，Up 003%，Turnover 17.9 billion.
3. Domestic commodities**As of the afternoon of December 15th**,Lithium carbonate rose more than 3%.** Up nearly 3%, low sulfur fuel rose nearly 2%, fuel oil, bean two, PVC, PTA, ferrosilicon, etc. rose more than 1%;In terms of decline, urea, iron ore, European line container transportation, and glass fell by more than 1%.
4. Treasury bonds:On December 15, the main contract of 2-year treasury bonds** TS2403 stabilized at 101158；The main 5-year Treasury bond ** contract TF2403 rose 006% to 102305；The main contract of 10-year treasury bond ** T2403 rose 010% to 102530。The 10-year Treasury rate fell 149bp, to 262%；The interest rate on the 10-year CDB fell 220bp, to 273%。
5. Shanghai International Energy Exchange:On December 15, the main contract was 2402, with 5466 yuan barrel**, 155 yuan, an increase of 292%。All contracts traded 188825 lots, and open interest decreased by 4,922 lots to 75,111 lots. The main contract traded 97,114 lots, and the open interest decreased by 1,193 lots to 32,844 lots.
6. Central Bank:On December 15, 50 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase and 1.45 trillion yuan of 1-year MLF operations were carried out, and the winning interest rates remained unchanged. 50%。On the same day, 197 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 650 billion yuan of MLF expired. The central bank injected a net of 800 billion yuan through MLF, the largest single month on record.
7、shibor：Overnight 15940%，*3.40 basis points. 7-day report 17530%，*1.00 basis points. 3 months report 26010%，**0.40 basis points.
8. RMB:The onshore yuan was quoted at 7 against the US dollar at 16:30**0987, up 04404%, the central price of RMB was reported at 70957, up 01871%。NDF: 3-month report 70195, 6 months report 69995, 1 annual report 69295, 2 Annual Report 68095。
9. Shanghai Environmental Exchange:On December 15, the trading volume of carbon emission allowance listing agreements in the national carbon market was 612027 tons, with a turnover of 4,369440,000 yuan, ** price 7135 yuan ton, down 011%。
abroad
10. Asia: Nikkei 225 index rose 087%，3297055 points. South Korea's KOSPI index rose 076%，reported 256356 points.
11. U.S. stocks: The Dow closed up 015%，3730516 o'clock;The Nasdaq closed up 035%，1481392 points;The S&P 500 closed down 001% to 471919 o'clock.
12. Europe:Britain's FTSE 100 closed down 095% at 757636 points;Germany's DAX30 closed down 000% at 1675144 points;France's CAC40 closed up 028%，759691 points.
COMEX closed down 045% at 2035$7 oz.
WTI*** settlement price closed down 021% to 71$43 barrel.
15. Baltic Dry Bulk Index:Down 111% at 2411 points.
trend·
Young people are eating, eating:A large number of young people poured into the food stalls at the entrance of the primary school with their mobile phones, and experienced the low-cost life of buying 8 skewers for 1 yuan, a large bowl of sugar water for 2 yuan, and a box of cold noodles for 3 yuan. It's not that the shopping mall B1 can't afford to eat, but the entrance of the primary school is more cost-effective. In cities where the per capita restaurant is more than 100, they are addicted to spending a lot of money with only 20 yuan. Compared with the shopping mall B1, the entrance of the primary school has its own set of consumption philosophy. Here, there is no pressure of "less than 100,000 yuan in savings at the age of 30, and the future is bleak", as long as you have 1 yuan in your pocket, you can buy 1 yuan of fun.
Young people are hotly talking: "It's better to believe in your tongue than in ratings. ”Recently, the topic of "low-rated restaurants may be more delicious" has been on the hot search, and many ordinary netizens have shared in the comment area that they "stepped on thunder" in high-scoring Internet celebrity restaurants, and there are only 3 restaurants that love to eat5 points of experience. The background of this phenomenon lies in the fact that some review apps have scores and distorted praise rates. A lot of 4Restaurants with a score of 8 and thousands of reviews do not rely on delicious food to conquer diners, but rely on "off-board tricks" such as giving away dishes and providing discounts to brush up inflated reviews. Customers need to be wary of such influencer stores.
Young people as cyber judges:Meituan Judge, also known as Cyber Network Judge,They are active in food delivery software every day, but they do not order takeout, but follow the clues in one after another delivery murder cases and issue a just trialIn the end, the takeaway merchant or customer is innocent. Let's take a look at a case where a burger restaurant sells whole fried chicken, and the customer notes "chop and chop" when ordering, only to receive a whole one. And this is the case after clicking twice, so the customer gave a one-star negative review. Originally, I wanted to condemn the merchant, but the evidence given by the court showed that the customer wrote "chop" as "dundun". If there is no Meituan reviewer to clear the store, I don't know how many merchants will be wronged.
Young people want to care for the elderly: if you volunteer in a nursing home, you can live in a nursing home. Many young people expressed their kindness. Rent in a nursing home is very cheap, only $300 per month. So if young people want to live in a nursing home, is it difficult?One of the difficulties of the "Intergenerational Integration" project is the selection of volunteers. Nursing homes have set up a strict screening process, for example, no bad habits, have a regular job or Xi unit, have a sense of love and responsibility for the elderly, and other basic requirements, each nursing home will also assess their volunteer service hours and satisfaction, and those who fail to pass for 3 consecutive months will be disqualified.
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