Judging from historical data, the probability of the incumbent ** running for re-election and success is about two-thirds, which means that the Democratic Party has a high probability of taking control of the White House again after November 24 (non-**, only from historical data);With multiple state redistrictings and the chaos presented by Republicans in the current House, there is a good chance that Democrats will flip control of the House;In the Senate, the Democrats will face an extremely unfavorable campaign pattern (the chart below shows the 34 senate seats to be re-elected next year), and it is not surprising that the Republicans will regain control of the Senate.
If this script develops, next November will create two precedents in the history of the United States in the past 100 years, the first is that the control of the Senate and the House of Representatives will be swapped between the two parties, and the second is that Washington will be formed, and the Republican-controlled Senate will oppose the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives and the White House (the above is only a relatively high probability of happening, non-**) The following figure is the control of the Senate and the House of Representatives and the White House since 1968.
The impact of the 1968 election on Washington's bipartisan landscape continues to this day, with the collapse of the New Deal coalition and the reorganization of the electorate that year, with Republican Richard Nixon winning 43 for the first time4：42.7% narrowly won *** but unfortunately failed to reverse the Democratic Party's long-term control of the Senate and House of Representatives, even when Nixon won a landslide victory in 49 states when he ran for re-election, the Republicans still did not flip either house of Congress. The Democrats held a firm grip on the House of Representatives from 1954 to 1994, and similarly, the Democrats controlled the Senate during the same period, with the exception of 1980-1986.
In the past 54 years (1969-2023), only 16 years have been controlled by **, which is controlled by Jimmy Carter, the first two years of Bill Clinton, George WBush's 4 years, the first two years of Obama Trump Biden (see the chart above, the last column is unified), and the other ** did not enjoy the treatment of their own party's full control of Congress.
Another change in the past 54 years is that moderate Republicans have gradually disappeared from New England and the Pacific coast, white Democrats have also disappeared from the Southern Confederate states and Plains states, red states have become more and more red, and blue states have become more and more blue, so that among the 50 states in the United States, only Maine, Montana, Ohio, West Virginia, and Wisconsin are left with two senators from different parties, and the remaining 45 states are from the same faction, if West Virginia is joe next November Manchin (D-WV), Jon Tester (D-MT) of Montana and Sherrod Brown (D-OH) of Ohio were flipped by Republicans, leaving only two states in the United States with senators from different parties (based on the fact that Kyrsten Sinema, Angus King, and Bernie Sanders are counted as Democrats).
With the changes over the past 50 years or so, the Republican Party's advantage in the Senate election pattern will become more and more obvious, the constitution is not based on the number of people but evenly distributed to each state of the two senatorial seats, if a ** faction wants to control the Senate, it must win half of the state seats (+1) When a state's population is smaller than the national average, the state can gain a greater say in the Senate that does not match the population, which is beneficial to the Republican Party, and the following figure is the 2020 census data of the 50 states in the United States (red font, the population of each state is ranked from less to most):
The median population of the 50 states is 4.58 million, and the population of Kentucky in the chart above is 4.51 million, which means that from Kentucky to Wyoming, the least populous state in the United States, there is a disproportionate representation in the Senate.
The chart below shows the racial composition of each state released by the U.S. Census Bureau in 2020, with the median white non-Latino population in all states being 58 percent, and only five of the 25 least populous states having less than this figure, and Mississippi and Alaska slightly less than 58 percent.
The chart below shows the percentage of white populations without higher education in the 25 least populated states in 2018, with a general rule that states with fewer populations have higher percentages without higher education, excluding Indiana, Ohio, and Wisconsin with large populations.
About 25% of the population lives in rural areas, and the 25 least populous states tend to have more than 25% of the population, as shown in the figure below, for example, Alaska and Alabama account for 53% and 51% of the state's population, respectively.
In the above three aspects, the 25 states with smaller populations tend to be more inclined to the Republican Party, taking the 6 times *** during the 2000-2020 period as an example, 14 of which all chose the Republican ** candidate, 7 states all chose the Democratic candidate, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Iowa have their own wins and losses.
So why hasn't the Republican Party been able to gain control of the Senate on a continuous basis in recent years?There are two reasons: the quality of the candidates and the rise of the Democratic Party in the southern states. For example, in last year's midterm elections, two Republican Senate candidates, Mehmet Oz and Herschel Walker of Pennsylvania, were in negative press, and even if they could attract Trump's base to win the primary, they would be at a disadvantage against their Democratic opponents in the runoff.
The rise of the Democratic Party in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico is also an important reason, in 2002, the Republican Party still had 6 senatorial seats in the above four states, but in 2022, all of them were won by the Democratic Party, and the Republican Party continued to overturn in Georgia, resulting in even if the overall Senate race pattern is in favor of the Republican Party, the Democratic Party can still control the Senate by a narrow margin.
However, under the influence of factors such as population size, ethnicity and rural population in all 50 states, even if the Republican Party loses control of the White House and the House of Representatives, the Senate campaign pattern will still favor the Republican Party for some time to come.