Recently, tensions in the South China Sea have eased. Judging from the Philippine reaction, China has continuously adopted coercive law enforcement measures against the Philippine side, and has dealt a heavy blow to Scarborough ShoalSecond Thomas Reef, finally let the Philippines have a lesson. Recently, Philippine security services have issued a series of statements on the confrontation in the South China Sea, trying to keep the intensity of the confrontation within a manageable range.
Philippine Coast Guard spokesman Tahrilla said the Philippines would not use water cannons in operations in the South China Sea. Although the ships of the Philippine Coast Guard are equipped with water cannons, they definitely do not consider water cannons to be offensive, and will not use it to attack or damage other ships. Philippine *** Committee Spokesman Jonathan? Malaya said that China has recently made peace with Scarborough ShoalSecond Thomas ReefActions in the maritime area are not acts of war. Although Malaya and others still show a resolute stance in their statements, declaring that "the Philippines will not bow to China", these special statements show that the Philippines has some specific ideas on the South China Sea issue.
First of all, the Philippines has publicly declared that it will never use water cannons, which is obviously a propaganda tactic, using this way to further consolidate its "friendly image" on the basis of the original "strong and weak contrast", so as to gain support at home and abroad. In his speech, Tarilla frankly admitted that such a move was an attempt to seize the so-called "moral high ground". Second, on the South China Sea issue, there has been no unanimity of opinion among various forces in the Philippines, and many pragmatists have called for itManilaStop moving. InSecond Thomas ReefIn the aftermath of the incident, people from inside and outside the Philippines published articles on the Philippines, accusing the actions of the military and police services for making the Philippines a global laughing stock, and saying that the Philippines and Congress are allowing the extremely strong military forces to play the most important roleGeopoliticsissues dominate the national discourse.
Third, the reason why the Philippine Coast Guard abandoned the use of water cannons is related to the strong power that China has demonstrated in a series of naval encounters. On Scarborough Shoal andSecond Thomas ReefDuring the incident, the Philippine ship passed through ChinaCoast Guardwater cannon strikes, one of the official ships evenEngineThe ingress was paralyzed and could only be towed back to port by friendly ships. The Philippine military has recognized that on both sidesCoast GuardIn the case of a significant gap in the number of ships and tonnage, if water cannons are used with ChinaCoast GuardA war would be thankless and could lead China to take further countermeasures. In contrast, the Philippine side prefers to first promise not to use water cannons and throw them away".Smoke grenades
Finally, the Philippines has now made it clear that China's actions are not "acts of war" because it wants to keep the intensity of confrontation in the South China Sea within its control and reduce the likelihood of U.S. intervention and escalation. It is worth noting that at the same time as the Philippine side's statement, the United States once again reaffirmed that it will consider helping the Philippines resolve the South China Sea issue in accordance with the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty. One of the key provisions of the treaty is that in the event of an armed attack on either side, the other side needs to provide immediate support. This move by the Philippine side can be seen as defining the incident as a "non-war act" before the United States, so as to avoid the United States from directly engaging in the treatyMilitaryIntervene. Philippine Navy Chief of Staff Brawner also said that there is no need to respond to changes in the situation under the Mutual Defense Treaty at this time. In the new appointment with the United StatesMilitaryDuring the call of Joint Staff Chairman Brown, Brauner is likely to askU.S. militaryThe relevant information is clarified.
To sum up, although the Philippine side still has some unrealistic illusions, they do not deviate much from the judgment of the overall situation, and they know that whether it is their aggressive actions orU.S. militaryThe direct involvement of all may beThe situation in the South China SeaPush in a direction you can't control. The Philippine side now hopes to win by showing a posture of "not fighting back".International** and finally made China make concessions through external pressure. However, not using water cannons, not treating China's water cannon strikes as acts of war, and not calling for the initiation of a mutual defense treaty does not mean that the relevant Philippine authorities will stop dangerous operations in the South China Sea. The Philippines has developed a new strategy and submitted it to the Philippines. As long as ** is approved, the coast guard and other departments will act according to the plan and counterattack China's maritime power. It is not yet possible to speculate what the new move of the Philippine side will be.
In general, we must admit that the Philippine side has somewhat reduced its statement that it "does not need to activate the US-Philippine treaty".The situation in the South China SeaThe possibility of a sharp deterioration. However, we must also realize that as long as the Philippines relies on the support of the United States and other forces, in order to competeSouth China Sea islands and reefsof sovereignty, they still have the possibility of dangerous actions. Therefore, China should maintain a high degree of vigilance, strengthen monitoring and patrols in the South China Sea, and strengthen dialogue and communication with the Philippines through diplomatic means, and strive to resolve disputes in the South China Sea through peaceful means. Second, the Philippines has indicated that it will not take the initiativeMilitaryaction, without the use of water cannons, but does not mean that the dispute is abandonedIslandsmay simply be a diplomatic shift.
Recently, the Philippines has made a series of statements on the South China Sea dispute, saying that it will not take the initiative to take actionMilitaryaction, without the use of water cannons, but does not imply a waiver of the controversyIslandsof sovereignty claims. This statement has aroused speculation and concern from the outside world, with some people believing that the Philippines may have changed its diplomatic approach, while others questioning whether the Philippines is genuinely willing to resolve the dispute through peaceful means.
First, the Philippines said it would not take the initiativeMilitaryThe operation, without the use of water cannons, may be the hope that the dispute will be resolved through diplomatic means. The reason why the Philippines has stated that it will not take the initiative to take actionMilitaryThe operation, without the use of water cannons, may feel carried out with ChinaMilitaryConfrontation is more than worth the loss and is not in the national interest of the Philippines. The Philippine side may recognize that it passedMilitaryInstead of solving the problem, they will only further escalate the situation and lead to deeper disputes and conflicts. As a result, the Philippine side has shifted its strategy and hopes to resolve the dispute through diplomatic means and reach a mutually acceptable solution through dialogue and negotiation with China.
Second, the Philippines said that it would not use water cannons, which does not mean that it has abandoned the disputeIslandsof sovereignty claims. In its statement, the Philippines has not given up on the controversyIslandsis simply a statement not to use water cannons to express a position on the dispute. This could be a shift in diplomacy in the hope of resolving disputes through peaceful means and avoiding drastic actions that lead to conflict. The Philippine side may believe that in the currentInternationalsituation, it is more beneficial to resolve disputes through peaceful means, and it can be obtainedInternationalSupport and help from the community.
However, the Philippines' statement does not mean that it has abandoned the controversyIslandsof sovereignty claims. The Philippine side still insists on its own rightIslandsThe sovereignty claim is only taken not to use water cannons and not to take the initiativeMilitaryaction to express. This shift in diplomatic tactics by the Philippine side may simply be aimed at obtaining a better negotiating position and striving for dialogue and negotiation with China to reach a mutually acceptable solution. Therefore, we cannot be overly optimistic about the Philippines' statement, and we still need to remain vigilant and resolutely defend our territorial sovereignty.
To sum up, the Philippines said it would not take the initiativeMilitaryaction, not to use water cannons, but not to abandon the controversyIslandsmay be a shift in diplomatic means. The Philippine side hopes to resolve the dispute through peaceful means and avoid itMilitaryconflict, but still insists on its own sovereignty claims. In conducting diplomatic dialogues and negotiations with the Philippines, we should remain vigilant and resolutely safeguard our own interests and sovereignty. At the same time, we should strengthen communication with other relevant parties and strive to resolve disputes in the South China Sea through peaceful means.