Any circle has its own spell, and ** circles are no exception.
The 3 spells that were widely circulated before were the 10 billion spell, the 88% spell and the champion ** spell, especially the champion ** spell, which basically will be fulfilled and often taken out for walking.
Now, with the development of the market, the curse of the ** circle may have to add another member.
Morningstar recently conducted a review of the public offerings that have been liquidated in the past ten years, and when counting the survival period of all liquidations in history, it was found that most of them closed early in life, and about 85% of them** did not survive to the fifth year.
Morningstar also calls this phenomenon the "five-year curse" of survival.
Data**: morningstar direct;Data cut-off date: November 30, 2023.
Liquidation may become the norm
From the perspective of the past ten years, the liquidation of ** has basically shown an upward trend in the past five years.
According to wind data, as of December 26, the number of liquidations** this year reached 256, which has surpassed the 254 in 2021 and hit a new high in the past five years, second only to 2018.
There are several main characteristics of this year's liquidation.
First, the number of liquidations has increased and hit a record high of 61, while the more popular bond type ** this year has only 36 liquidations, the lowest in the past five years.
Second, the number of FOF** liquidations has begun to rise, with 12 FOF** liquidated, three times that of last year, and last year was also the first time that the public FOF** was liquidated since its launch in 2017.
Third, the popular ETFs have not escaped the fate of liquidation, with the number of liquidations reaching 32 this year.
But if you look at 2018, it is actually a relatively benign incremental state, after all, over the years, the number of ** establishments has gradually increased.
Reasons for winding-up
The number one reason for being liquidated is that it is too small, and if you want to increase the scale, the most important thing is to rely on performance, good performance, and there are always people who follow the taste and come to the door.
Just like Sima Yimaimaiti's Internet celebrity bond base, it was bought by everyone as soon as it opened the door, and Jin Yuan Shun An Yuanqi, who has already become a shop window, still has people squatting at the door and begging to open the door.
The other is to rely on differentiation, buy things and pay attention to shopping around, even more so when buying **, the products on the same track will definitely be compared, and in this case, often the Matthew effect is significant, unless the performance is extremely outstanding, it is difficult to get a piece of the pie.
For example, because of the recent surge in overseas markets, everyone snapped up India's **LOF, and Southeast Asia technology ETFs. The former was directly bought to suspend the subscription, and the latter was at a premium of 7% intraday, allowing the ** manager to urgently come out for risk warning.
Secondly, some industries, or themes, will rise and fall because of the industry's rotation, and when it is bad, they can only suffer.
Take a certain CSI Beverage ETF established this year as an example, it was established at the end of 2021, and the subsequent liquor sector has been in a state.
This kind of inopportune time can only make ** regret the exit in the end.
In addition, the organization will generally enter liquidation after completing its mission, and when the closed operation expires, it will also choose to be liquidated naturally or turn to open.
Of course, there are some extreme cases, such as the first year of liquidation in 2018, when the number of liquidations reached 430, which is the highest in history.
The main reason is that the introduction of the new regulations on asset management has led to the gradual withdrawal of capital preservation and grading, and the background of strict supervision, deleveraging and nesting of bank outsourcing funds has also accelerated the liquidation of the company.
Moreover, 2018 itself is a cold winter for the city, and the cost and performance pressure of the company itself is large, and it can only reluctantly liquidate its own "mini**".
Who has broken the five-year curse
The end of the year is approaching, and another batch of ** is about to enter the final critical period of the five-year curse.
At present, there are 945 ** that have been established for 4 5 years, and about 22 have been determined to have broken through the "curse" of debt base and equity**.
Note: Selection criteria: 1. The scale is more than 1 billion yuan;2. The return has been positive this year and since its inception.
The main breakouts of equity are:
Western Profit Quantitative Growth, Southern Information Innovation and Wanjia Artificial Intelligence, Southern Information Innovation, Wells Fargo Alpha Two-Year Holding, etc.
The secondary debt base mainly includes:
Bank of China Zhaoli, Harvest Zhi'an, E Fund Hengsheng, etc.
The main exponential types are:
CSI Dividend ETF, Dividend ETF E Fund, Central Enterprise Innovation ETF, etc.
There are two main reasons why these ** can break through and maintain a good performance in the past 5 years:
Clause. 1. Stepping on the wind in a few periods, such as Southern Information Innovation and Wanjia Artificial Intelligence, which are both heavy TMT plates;Guorong Rongsheng's leading company carefully selects the layout of computing power semiconductors and focuses on the optical communication industry chain in computing power.
Clause. Second, it is in line with the current mainstream aesthetics, such as dividend ETFs and quantification;
Clause. 3. Low volatility is stable, and the holding experience is better. For example, E Fund Hengsheng 3-month fixed opening and Bank of China Zhaoli bonds, etc., the equity center of such secondary bonds is low, basically maintained at about 5%, and the bonds are mainly convertible bonds, perpetual bonds, and financial bonds.
Looking down, if you want to break the curse, you basically can't do without the two points of wind outlet and performance, everyone still has to remain rational, fully understand, make investment judgments according to their own risk tolerance, and don't be lost by short-term high returns.