Over time, more and more cities are facing a downturn in the real estate market. Whether it is new or second-hand housing, sales are declining, and the favorable policies released before do not seem to have achieved the desired effect. For the plight of the real estate market, the former mayor of ChongqingHuang QifanIt is proposed to abolish the purchase and loan restrictions and implement differentiationPropertyThe "good plan" of taxation, this initiative has aroused widespread discussion and support on the Internet. Then, once the purchase and loan restrictions are lifted,Room ratesHow will it change?**Will you let it go, let it goRoom ratesSelf-sufficientNext, we will look at this question from several aspects.
Recent real estate data shows that across the country, both new and second-hand homes are facing a backlog. For example, January-October 2022, nationwideCommercial housingThe area of sales fell by 223%。At the same time, the number of second-hand homes for sale in first-tier cities is also increasing rapidly, with the number of second-hand homes for sale in the Shanghai market increasing by 82% in just five months. This situation has arisen mainly due to recent yearsPandemicand the change of residents' consumption concept. On the one hand,PandemicIt has had a big impact on the income and employment status of residentsBuying a houseAs a result, the economic base is fragile;On the other hand, the current oneBuying a houseare more rational in decision-makingBuying a houseBe more cautious rather than blindly following the trend. And now everywhereRoom ratesIt is generally too high for the average family to bear, which also makes itBuying a houseDemand is further reduced.
FaceBuying a houseThe market continues to be sluggish, and various localities have taken a series of measures as much as possible, such as canceling purchase restrictions and loan restrictions, and raising the amount of provident fund loansBanksLower interest rates, and so on. However, even such loose policy dividends,Buying a houseThe market remains weak. This may confirm, to some extent, that the root cause of the current market downturn is not entirely policy. We have already mentioned it earlier,Buying a houseThe decline in capacity and a more rational consumption concept are the underlying reasons for the market downturn. Against this backdrop, policy easing, while meaningful, is far from enough to reverse the general trend of the market.
When the ** everywhere is in the predicament of "giving up**,Huang QifanThe suggestion seems to open a new door to solving the problem. He advocated the abolition of the policy of restricting purchases and loans, and at the same time expanded itPropertyWithin the scope of the pilot cities, differentiated taxation will be implemented. The goal of this series of measures is to return the market to a mechanism of supply and demand, rather than relying on administrative means to interveneRoom rates。As soon as the proposal was put forward, it immediately caused a heated discussion on the Internet. Proponents see this as a "good solution" to effectively deleverage and curb speculative investment demand. However, there are also concerns that once the purchase and loan restrictions are lifted, investors will flood the market and rekindle itRoom rates** Possibilities. In this regard, the author believes that the latter's concerns are unfounded. The real estate market in China today is very different from what it was a few years ago. On the one hand, experiencedPandemicSince then, many investors' capital chains have been broken and they are no longer able to participate in investment. On the other hand, even the generalBuying a houseThe demand side is starting to become cautious, not to mention the investorsTherefore, after the cancellation of the purchase and loan restrictions,Room ratesThe likelihood of a big rally is not high. On the contrary, without the interference of administrative intervention, the market** is easier to return toSupply and demand, the developer will also determine according to the actual situationRoom rates, which is undoubtedly more beneficial to the stability of the market.
InHuang QifanAt the same time that the "liberalization" proposal caused a huge response, China recently released a blockbuster news - in the next five years, it will vigorously promote the construction of affordable housing, strive to provide 6 million sets of affordable housing, and start the pilot trial in 35 large cities. This news was interpreted by the outside world as another clear statement on housing not speculation and city-specific policies. After all, the positioning of affordable housing is for low- and middle-income people, which is far below the average market price, which helps to help low- and middle-income groups solve their basic housing needs. ForCommercial housingIn terms of the market, this is also a tranquilizer, because the mid-to-high-end demand has been isolated and transferred, and the market will be more rational and stable.
To sum up, no matter whatHuang QifanThe proposal, or the first affordable housing plan, has released a clear signal: the policy will further promote the real estate market to return to the housing attributes, and regulate the market based on the relationship between supply and demand. In such an environment, everywhereRoom ratesThere will no longer be reliance on policy stimulus to sustain it, but a return to the marketSupply and demandof regulation. This is undoubtedly good news for ordinary people, as the cost of buying a home is expected to come down in the near future.