It has been more than 660 days since Russia launched the so-called "special military operation" against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and in this "short" 660 days, it has had a considerable impact on the whole world, so much so that it is jokingly called"Fight the poor three countries, fight the rich three countries".
There are quite a few military enthusiasts who are puzzled by this - "how can there be a gap between the rich and the poor in 6 countries when there are only 2 countries that are at war".
In fact, in wars throughout the ages, the truth is similar - the impact of war is often not limited to the two countries in the battlefield, or even limited to a few alliances in the battlefield.
As the 20th century wore on, the term "war impact" began to become a product with global implications.
The main battlefield of the First World War was actually in Europe, but it still had a great impact on countries around the world, and it was in such times that several countries at the center of the vortex of war were in serious crisis:
Britain's national strength was greatly consumed by the First World War, France's development potential for the next few decades was completely depleted, the army of the German Empire was consumed in a long tug-of-war, and the Austro-Hungarian Empire, which was recovering from the sun, was directly shattered by ......the war
But in World War I, there was also a country that made a fortune and even reached the pinnacle of national fortunes - that is, the United States.
Yes, after the end of World War I, the United States made great progress in its national strength by virtue of its unique characteristics and advantages of "coastal" and "untouched territory" -- before the start of the war, the United States was unable to produce machine guns in large quantities, and was forced to purchase the French-made "Shaosha" light machine gun and stumbled over imitations.
After the end of World War I, the United States has established a whole industrial system adapted to the war, from simple clothing to trucks, artillery, warships, and even tank prototypes of various countries have to be renovated and repaired by American "Holt" tractors.
From past experience, it is not difficult to see that after entering the 20th century, the impact of war can easily fall into "globalization", making the world enter a situation of "affecting the whole body", and this is similar in the "special military operation" between Russia and Ukraine.
In the more than 600 days since the beginning of Russia's so-called "special military operation" against Ukraine, all kinds of countries have stood in line, and Ukraine, which intends to join NATO, is naturally in this incidentThe worst beatingsIf you want to talk about "who will be poor after the start of the war", then there must be a share of Ukraine.
According to Yulia Sveritenko, then First Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine and Minister of Economy, in 2022:
"2022 was the worst economic downturn Ukraine has suffered in more than 30 years."We are not correcting the "degree of economic decline in Ukraine" proposed by the finance minister (after all, the "economic collapse" of Ukraine in the 80-90s was not inferior to this one), but we can still see the seriousness of the problem in his rather frightening description:
And according to the statement issued by the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine on January 6, 2023, it is easy to know: Ukraine's GDP in December 2022 is estimated to be year-on-year34% reduction, November 2022 year-on-year37% reduction
In the span of the last year alone, Ukraine has beenMore than a third of the gross national product has evaporatedand, as the battle progresses, the further effects of the war will continue to reduce its economic capacity.
We can clearly see that Ukraine is now in complete "poverty" economically no matter what it is in this war.
Worse still, due toAfter the collapse of the USSR, UkraineBlindly copying the "advanced economic experience" of the West, which has led to problems with both its economic strength and economic strength, resulting in Ukraine's own high debt.
After Russia's "special military operation" against it in 2022, Ukraine has received tens of billions of various types of military aid and economic aid (mostly in the form of loans).Borrowing in disguiseThis has further exacerbated Ukraine's debt problem.
According to published data, Ukraine's debt level has now been reachedThe highest level in historybillion dollars, which is equivalent to more than the GDP of Ukraine in the whole of 2021 without war, not to mention that Ukraine itself is now burdened by this long war$411 billion in reconstruction costs
There is no doubt that Ukraine's economy is in serious economic problems in this war – in other words, the fabled "the more you fight, the poorer you get".
A significant number of other countries that have sided with Ukraine in the united front have also fallen into economic trouble, such as the European Union and the United Kingdom, which jumped up and down in this war.
As early as 2022, after the start of Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine, the German newspaper ** quoted the evaluation of relevant personnel on the German side and said alarmistically:
"Considering that gas, coal, and oil are the three major fossil energy sources that are being shut down due to sanctions against Russia. There is no doubt that in order to follow the United States in the fight against Russia, the politicians in the arena agreed without blinking an eye - you know, this will cost us 70% of our enterprises!This is the path to bankruptcy!And this behavior starts with the seemingly innocuous energy price increase of consumer goods!”Admittedly, 2023 may seem alarmist today, but if you have heard of Europe's environmental climate and heating needs**, you should also understand that such fears are not groundless.
As early as 2022, as the European Union sided with the United States and Ukraine and imposed "comprehensive sanctions" on Russia, these political actuaries made the "petrochemical resources" that account for the majority of Russia's exports the top priority and carried out a "vigorous and resolute attack".
As a result, the EU, the beneficiary of "globalization", is simultaneously engaged in a "hard decoupling" from Russia in terms of economy and energyDue to the failure to prepare and evaluate accordingly, as a result, the ** authorities of European countries have to try to weaken the daily welfare of civilians, including but not limited to:
Reduce subsidies for domestic gas heating and electric heating;Raise taxes on gas and electricity;Accordingly increase taxes on various chemicals that rely on gas;In addition, under the name of "ways to deal with the energy crisis and save water and electricity bills" on television, we promoted the need for residents to "save energy and reduce emissions".
Civilians in the European Union have long been surprised by this - in the past, the authorities have come out every time they impose sanctions against Russia, and the gas bill has never been reduced in the slightest after the restoration of Russia.
Even in the eyes of some EU civilians, the so-called "response to sanctions" is nothing more than a "scapegoat" pulled up to violate the slogans of their original election campaign.
After all, for Europeans, heads of state campaigns have always gone to great lengths to try to build a "better future when they come to power", promising cheap heating and a comfortable lifestyle.
And now, they're being forced back to a worse life – and here's whyThe so-called "sanctions against Russia", which they do not care about at all.
From the perspective of European citizens, the wars between the far-flung "barbaric countries of Eastern Europe" such as Ukraine and Russia have little to do with them – and even if they do, they can't be anything to do with making life worse.
When the cost of living is on a Europe-wide scale, not only the French are prone to it, but also people in other EU countries are increasingly expressing dissatisfaction and anger.
Italy, for example, according to Italian citizens on social **:
"Sanctions against Russia have actually turned into a nightmare for EU citizens themselves. While the authorities of the European Association are still craning their necks and waiting for the "destruction of the Russian economy", the "destruction of the economy" is already taking place within Europe. ”In this state of mind, the internal activities within the EU have begun after the body **gas** in March, and in April, there was a trend of spreading and spreading.
On this basis, the EU countries represented by Germany decided to "tighten their belts" to send ** and resources to Ukraine, in order to "let the war end as soon as possible" to facilitate the resumption of energy transportation, and at the same time let the imaginary "defeated Russia", which is "powerless" in the face of heavenly soldiers, use "more fair" ** to provide gas to European countries to tide over the difficulties.
But the facts clearly exceeded the expectations of the European Union, which implemented it"Hard decoupling sanctions".In the short term, the effect is really limited - "Europe does not buy energy, naturally someone fills the gap in the market", at this time, maintaining sanctions on Russian energy has become a long-term job.
The EU was full of expectations beforeThe theory of "heavenly soldiers help Ukraine win quickly".It is also obvious that it is bankrupt - the many big ** that Ukraine has organized from 2022 to 2023, and at the same time that the results of its battles are becoming less and less, and the collapse of Russia is getting farther and farther away.
At this time, the economies of European countries fell into a strange circle, with the most powerful economic strength in EuropeGermanyFor example, its 2023 yearThe amount of debt is as high asbillion dollars, which is already approaching its all-time high debt, and its GDP for the whole year is not enoughbillion dollars
In other words, its debt has risen to the point where it cannot repay the country's GDP even in one year.
This is still the economic situation of Germany, which is the most powerful country in Europe, and what if it is changed to other countries?Take, for example, Greece, which is known as the "European Pig Four" (i.e., the acronym "pigs" of the four economically weak countries in the European Union, namely Portugal Portugal, Italy Italy, Greece Greece, and Spain Spain).
GreeceThe debt in 2023 is:6073.5.5 billion eurosAlthough it sounds like a lot less than Germany, it is not much more than a total of Greece's GDP for the whole year$219 billionIts debt problem is obviously far worse than that of the European leaders.
From the above facts and economic data, it is not difficult to see that as EU countries standing with Ukraine, whether it is Germany as the leader, or Greece as the tail of the EU crane and one of the "European pig four", they are all in a situation of "fighting more and poorer" in Russia's "special military operation" that began in 2022.
As one of the protagonists of this "special military operation", Russia's performance in the frontal battlefield and the economic field has exceeded ordinary people's expectations.
From the perspective of a normal person, in the special military operation that began in February 2022, Russia, with its strong military strength, should have been able to achieve a "7-day victory" similar to the 2008 Georgian War, but economically it would be hit hard again after being collectively sanctioned by large economies represented by the United States and Europe.
But the reality is that Russia was quickly contained by Ukraine in the assault and advance on the frontal battlefield, and the "quick victory" was obviously hopeless, but its strength in the economic field surprised almost everyone.
In 2022, Russia's economic situation will only suffer "flesh wounds" under the "unprecedentedly severe" sanctions imposed by Western countries, and the Russian economy will only suffer "flesh wounds", and it will not hurt its muscles and bones, and even show it"Amazing resilience".
And in December 2023, when the global economy is experiencing varying degrees of downturn, Russia's economy has unusually grown in a state of war, so much so that it is called by The Economist quite "can't eat grapes and say grapes are sour"."There is a risk of economic overheating".
Obviously, Russia does not care too much about this issue - according to Russian Prime Minister Mishustin
"Despite the difficulties caused by Western sanctions to Russia, the Russian economy has not collapsed as expected by the West, and the Russian economy will perform much better than the eurozone in 2023. ”And based on the actual data, we can easily come to similar conclusions:
According to official data from the World Bank, Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022 is:22404.$200 million, in the context of the global economic downturn compared to 2021 before the war, even appeared5.5%**
So what is the debt situation in Russia?Russia ** does not actually have so much debt. One of the elements of the "Russian fortress" strategy is to build Moscow's balance sheet, mainly through foreign exchange reserves and some **, and then keep the debt level low.
According to the relevant data, Russia last yearThe domestic debt is only 13 per cent of its GDP, while Russia's external debt although there are 150 billion dollars, of whichOnly $45 billion actually belongs to Russia**
Judging by the economic data, Russia's external debt pressure does not seem to be so bad compared to EuropeThere is even a trend of "stability and improvement".
Some may wonder what about Russia's debt default, since Russia's economy is not in a bad stateThis has something to do with another country that "became poorer and poorer" during the Second Five-Year War.
Russia defaulted on its foreign currency debt in 2023 for the first time since 1918, but this time the default is interestingExceptionsNot because of lack of funds, whileIt is because Western sanctions have cut off Russia's payment channels to overseas creditors, triggering a debt default almost compulsorily.
In fact, the root cause of this "debt default" lies inThe United States has continuously squeezed Russia's financial resources and prevented Russia from repaying its debts normally through foreign exchange deposited in US financial institutions, artificially creating the risk of Russia's debt default
From this political game, the United States seems to have achieved a "victory", but this "financialization" is a kind of "credit default", which is undermining the core strength of the United States' financial hegemony - the national credit of the United States and the world's confidence in the financial system dominated by the United States.
It is worth mentioning that, in fact, the United States did not only launch a "1,000 kills and 1,500 self-losses" against Russia this time"Financialization".Attack, as early as 2022, it also launched a similar attack on the Gulf countries through similar methods.
After Russia launched a "special military operation" against Ukraine, due to the gas and oil **, on May 5, 2022, the United States passed a draft antitrust legislation called "NOPEC" (prohibition of oil production and export cartels), trying to once again use the long arm of US law to govern the decision of Middle Eastern countries to reduce production on oil production.
And the reason for doing this is also very simple - due to the new round of recurrence of the new crown epidemic and the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, all kinds of commodities in the market have appeared to varying degrees**, and oil and natural gas**, as a traditional energy source, are also among them.
Since then, Europe has begun to choose to declare "sanctions against Russia" for various purposes, which has further pushed up fuel oil on the international market**, which has pushed the already serious inflation problem in the United States to historic highs.
In this context, Biden has put pressure on OPEC countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia to increase oil production and lower international oil prices and alleviate inflationary pressure in the United States, but they have been strongly rejected by the countries concerned.
In such a situation, Biden was even forced to sign a decree to use the strategic reserves of the United States to ease oil prices**, while targeting OPEC countries.
The passage of the NOPEC Act at that time undoubtedly changed the entire antitrust law of the United States, allowing American prosecutors to file lawsuits against any energy industry group in the United States federal court at any time on the grounds of "antitrust practices" and "market manipulation".
This move has completely exposed the façade of the "international free market" that the United States has always emphasized
OPEC is acting entirely on the logic of the international market, and its position in the oil sector is not at the level of a "monopoly" (because the United States itself is already one of the world's largest energy exporters), and its rejection of the United States' demand for production increases is also in its own self-interest.
And in 2022,It is just a violation of the United States' demand to "increase oil production and suppress inflation in the United States"., let the United States ** not hesitate to amend the law to force others to comply.
This kindIt has abandoned the "golden signboards" of "freedom" and "market freedom" in the post-Cold War era in which the United States dominates the international orderThis behavior is really ridiculous and pathetic.
Even to this extent, judging from the realistic data,The economic situation in the United States has also not improved much after Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine
According to the official data released by the United States, its GDP in 2023 is:0 billion US dollars, annual growth rateReluctantly3% (note that this is the result of the US as it continues to eass and print money).
And now the size of the US federal debt has reached31.$46 trillion, as a percentage of its GDP evenMore than 120%.
InOn the basis of shaking the national capital, it is still heavily indebtedIt is easy to conclude that after the "special military operation", the US economy has also fallen into the EU-Ukraine style "getting poorer and poorer".
Since the beginning of Russia's "special military operation" in 2022, there has been an unexpected growth in the economy of one more country - India.
Yes, if readers who still have an impression of 2022 should still have the impression that with the EU launching comprehensive economic sanctions against Russia, "fuel and gas resources" are also included, which has led to its ** soaring.
But Europe's urgent need for natural gas remains unchanged – even as a result of the panic storage on a larger scale.
Quite "coincidentally", in the first half of 2022, India imported a large amount of Russian discounts** and reaped rich benefits, which also made India an important country with a significant increase in fuel and gas exports after Russia launched its "special military operation".
It is difficult to say what role India has played here.
But there is no doubt about itAfter Russia launched the "special military operation", India took advantage of the "energy business" and its special geographical position to knock on the bamboo pole of Europe and the United States.
This has also led to India's economic growth in the last yearShows a phenomenal increase (up to 5%), becoming one of the countries that has "fought more and more" since Russia launched its "special military operation" against Ukraine.
Some people may be disgusted by this economic growth, but if you know:
As the international oil giant "Shell" oil, it mixes different oils from all over the world and refills the mixed oil, claiming that "no more than 49% of all oil sold comes from Russia."9%", in order to circumvent the global "oil sanctions" against Russia, and who will blame India for its behavior in this matter?
As the classic moral dilemma goes: "There are two drops of oil, can you tell me which one is noble and which one is dirty?".”
At a time when the war between Russia and Ukraine is in full swing, China's attitude is very clear: that is, "China upholds justice, seeks peace, has a long-term perspective, always stands on the right side of history, opposes hegemonism and power politics, and works with the international community to safeguard the peace and tranquility of mankind".
But as the article said at the outset, after the 20th century, the term "war impact" began to become a product with global ripples – and in our case, we were no exception.
fromRealistic perspectivesBefore the overall deterioration of the situation between Russia and Ukraine, China signed an agreement with the United States and Russia on the import of grain, fuel and other resources that soared after the warThe further impact of Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine has been greatly reduced
And our country due toThe "degree of internal circulation" of the economy is quite highThis also allows our country to be resistant to international economic fluctuations to a considerable extent.
That's right"Sailing against the current, if you don't retreat, you will advance".From this point of view, our country is undoubtedly one of the countries that "fight more and get richer" with the deepening of Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine, but our country is not actually a participant in the war, and even appears as an advocate for peace.
This is fundamentally different from other countries in the world that are "getting richer and richer the more they fight", and it is also fundamentally different from the so-called "China and Russia in one trench" claimed by the United States.
In terms of status, China is now far more neutral than the United States was in the early days of World War I.
After all, Japan did not directly participate in the victory of the First World War, as the United States did, but has been calling for calm and peace in all countries.
Project Sword
References:
[1] Xinhuanet, "Ukraine's official preliminary estimate of economic contraction in 2022 is 30."4%》
[2] Xinhuanet, "The Ukraine crisis caused Ukraine's GDP to drop by 29 last year."1%》
[3] ** Economic Net "Ukraine - Foreign Debt".
[4] UN News, "Latest Assessment: Ukraine's Reconstruction Costs Rise to $411 Billion".
[5] **Economic Net, "Germany - GDP".
[6] **Economic Net, "Germany-Foreign Debt".
[7] **Economic Net, "Greece - GDP".
[8] ** Economic Net "Greece - Foreign Debt".
[9] The Economist, "Russia's Economy Revives" (2022).
[10] The Economist, "The Russian Economy Reaches a Dangerous Hot Spot" (2023).
[11] Al Jazeera, "Q&A: What happens if Russia defaults on its debts?".》
[12] The Paper, "Rich but Can't Pay, Russia Staged the First Foreign Currency Sovereign Debt Default in 105 Years".
[13] Xinhua News Agency, "Russia is expected to avoid a "debt default", and the United States may have no solution to the "credit default".
[14] Al Jazeera, "For the benefit of local consumers, the U.S. Congressional Committee Passes the NOPEC Act Against the Monopoly of Petroleum Exporting Countries" (2022).
[15] Xinhua News Agency, "The 103rd!The U.S. Congress adjusts the debt ceiling again
[16] Economy** "Commentary on the World Classics|".The foundation of India's economic development is hardly solid".
[17] Xinhua News Agency, "Xinhua**: China's Responsibility to Promote the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis".
[18] Xinhua News Agency, "Wang Yi Expounds China's Five-Point Position on the Current Ukraine Issue".