Is the real estate trend becoming clearer? In the next five years, more than 40% of families will face three major challenges
After entering the month of 2023, the trend of the national property market has gradually become clear. From January to November this year, the sales area of commercial housing in the country was about 121.2 billion square meters, down 233%；The sales volume of commercial buildings is about 118600 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 266%。
At the same time, in November, the average second-hand housing in 100 cities across the country was 1540,000 yuan, down 056%, a decrease of 011 percentage points, has been 19 consecutive months of year-on-year decline, the annual decline expanded to 321%。Housing prices in large and medium-sized cities across the country are generally on a downward trend.
There are three main reasons for the obvious adjustment of the current real estate market: First, there is a large surplus of domestic housing. According to some data, China has 1200 million vacant houses, enough for 3-400 million people. In addition, as of the third quarter of this year, the area of commercial housing for sale in the country reached 6400 million square meters, an increase of 179%。It has already reached the level of 2015.
In addition, more than 96% of the country's residents own a property, and the number of households with two or more properties has reached 415%。The real estate market is becoming saturated. With the end of urbanization and the advent of an aging society, there will be less and less demand for buying just-needed properties in the future. Therefore, a long-term recession in the real estate market is inevitable.
Second, people's incomes have fallen and they can no longer afford the high prices of buildings they are looking at. In the past, many people dared to take out a loan to buy a house, mainly because they were confident in future income growth and believed that income would continue to increase. After a three-year pandemic, people with reduced incomes or unemployed are cautious about future income growth.
This situation means that residents' ability to buy homes has been severely weakened, and at the same time, there is a lack of confidence in future income growth. As a result, residents' demand for housing has begun to weaken, and their desire to buy a house has become much worse than before. The phenomenon of impulsive and blind buying of houses as in the past will no longer occur.
Third, the long-term adjustment of the real estate sector has paid off. China began to adjust its real estate sector in 2016 with the aim of curbing housing prices**. In 2021 alone, the regulation of the real estate sector will increase by 650 times. As a result, the long-term real estate regulation will gradually ferment in the property market, and the inflection point of the property market will come in the second half of 2021. Once the property market adjustment trend is formed, it will enter a long-term adjustment channel.
In fact, for families with only one property in the country, the impact of the property entering the adjustment cycle is not great - after all, the family only has one house, and the purchase of a house is also for self-occupation. But for more than 40% of families who own more than 2 properties, they may face 3 problems in the next 5 years, let's find out:
Problem 1: The market value of the home will continue to fall.
This round of property market adjustment began in the second half of 2021, starting with housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities around Beijing such as Yanjiao and Zhuozhou**. Subsequently, the housing prices of second-tier cities represented by Zhengzhou, Shijiazhuang, Tianjin, and Wuhan **. After entering 2023, housing prices in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen will be obvious**.
Taking a dilapidated old house in Jing'an District, Shanghai as an example, the house price in 2021 peaked at more than 100,000 square meters, and has now fallen to 6-70,000 square meters, and the house price in some areas has fallen to more than 50,000 square meters. In the next five years, housing prices will continue to be ** and gradually linked to the income of local residents. At that point, families with two or more homes will have to face the pain of a sharp drop in market value.
Problem 2: It's getting harder and harder to make money from a house.
In the future, families with more than two properties will face the problem of becoming more and more difficult to realize, mainly for two reasons: First, due to the loss of the money-making effect of the property market, many property speculators will take out the excess houses**. At present, the number of second-hand houses listed in major cities has exceeded 100,000 units. After recognising the house and not recognising the loan, the number of second-hand houses listed in Beijing exceeded 150,000 units, and the number of second-hand houses listed in Shanghai exceeded 180,000 units.
On the other hand, China has launched a new round of housing reform, which will provide 6 million affordable housing units to low-income groups in the next five years, which will seriously divert demand from the commercial housing market. Therefore, it is advisable for families who currently own multiple properties to monetize their homes as soon as possible.
Difficulty 3: There is increasing pressure to own multiple properties.
Nowadays, the vast majority of families in China buy houses through bank loans. Therefore, the pressure on monthly mortgage payments is undoubtedly much greater for households with multiple homes than for families with only one property. After 3 years of the pandemic, many families with more than 2 homes still have to repay their bank loans every month despite the reduced income, which is simply conceivable. In addition, families with more than two homes are responsible for various expenses such as property fees, maintenance**, heating costs, etc. What's more, as prices continue to rise, these costs increase to varying degrees every year.