As a leading enterprise in chip manufacturing technology, TSMC has successfully developed the 3nm process and provided production for Apple's A17Pro, M3 and other chips. However, at the same time, TSMC's 7nm process has fallen into an embarrassing situation of sluggish sales. According to reports, TSMC's 7nm process capacity utilization rate fell below 70% last year, and this year it has dropped to less than 60%, and may even fall below the 50% level. In order to reverse this situation, TSMC had to cut prices to grab orders.
Why is the sales of 7nm chips not good?The reason is actually relatively simple and can be divided into two aspects. On the one hand, high does not succeed. The data shows that the proportion of chips using mature processes (28nm and above) has reached about 80%, and less than 20% of the market demand comes from chips below 28nm. This part mainly includes automotive chips, driver chips, etc., which basically meet the needs in terms of performance, so there is no urgent need to upgrade to more advanced processes such as 7nm. On the other hand, low is not enough. In the past, the 7nm process was mainly used in mobile phone SoC, GPU, AI, CPU and other chips, while other types of chips were not suitable for this process. As TSMC continues to launch more advanced processes such as 5nm, 4nm, and 3nm, chips such as mobile phone SOC, GPU, AI, CPU and other chips have also entered these new process stages. As a result, the market demand for the 7nm process is shrinking. After all, those chips that originally used mature processes will not be upgraded to 7nm, and the chips that originally used 7nm processes have been updated and upgraded to more advanced processes such as 5nm and 3nm, so the 7nm process naturally lost orders.
It is foreseeable that in the future, a similar situation may occur in other fabs, that is, there are orders between mature processes and state-of-the-art processes, while intermediate processes are facing the embarrassing situation of insufficient orders. TSMC either needs to upgrade the capacity of the 7nm process to a more advanced process level, or downgrade to a mature process, otherwise its capacity utilization rate will continue to be sluggish and difficult to recover.
Not only TSMC, but other fabs are facing a similar dilemma. With the development of science and technology, the research and development of advanced processes has accelerated, and smaller, higher-performance chip manufacturing processes have been emerging. However, this has also led to a divergence in fab capacity utilization, with large differences in order numbers between mature and state-of-the-art processes.
On the one hand, mature processes still have a wide market demand because of their stability and reliability. Many applications, such as automotive, industrial controls, communication equipment, etc., are already in demand for mature processes and therefore do not require an upgrade to state-of-the-art processes. On the other hand, the most advanced technology has huge advantages in the field of high-performance chips, such as mobile phones, high-performance computing, artificial intelligence and other fields. These areas require smaller, faster, and more energy-efficient chips to meet the growing demand, so there is a strong demand for state-of-the-art processes.
However, the problem arises with intermediate stage processes, such as TSMC's 7nm. These processes are neither mature nor advanced enough to meet the needs of some areas. The tasks that the mature process is still capable of doing have become the orders for the mature process, and the tasks that have been upgraded to the most advanced process have become the orders for the most advanced process, and the number of orders is insufficient for the intermediate stage process. As a result, fabs need to strike a balance between the two extremes to ensure that capacity is fully utilized.
For fabs, it is essential to accurately ** market demand and allocate capacity reasonably. On the one hand, fabs need to reasonably plan the R&D and production plans of different processes according to market trends and technological progress to ensure the rational utilization of production capacity and the stability of orders**. On the other hand, fabs also need to work closely with customers to adjust production line capacity in advance according to customer needs, so as to meet order demand in a timely manner.
Overall, the dilemma faced by fabs is not accidental, but is due to technological advancements and changes in market demand. Only through accurate capacity planning and market ** can fabs maintain a competitive advantage in the fierce market competition and achieve stable development.
The reason for the sluggish sales of TSMC's 7nm chips reflects a general trend and challenge in the technology industry. With the advancement of science and technology, the chip manufacturing process has been continuously updated, bringing smaller and higher-performance chip products. However, this progress is also accompanied by changes in market demand and the first chain, which makes some intermediate stage processes face the dilemma of insufficient orders.
From a personal point of view, I think there are the following thoughts on the reasons for the sluggish sales of TSMC's 7nm chips:
First of all, advances in technology don't mean everything can be transformed quickly. Although TSMC has successfully developed a more advanced 3nm process, this does not mean that the old process will be phased out immediately. There is still a strong demand for mature processes in some applications, so fabs need to find a balance between mature and state-of-the-art processes.
Secondly, changes in market demand need to be observed and adjusted in advance. TSMC's sluggish sales of 7nm chips may also be affected by changes in market demand. For fabs, it is an effective way to cope with market fluctuations by observing industry trends in a timely manner, maintaining close cooperation with customers, and adjusting production capacity early.
Finally, the stability of the ** chain is also key. The industrial chain that is highly dependent on chips needs a stable chain to operate smoothly. Wafer fabs need to establish long-term and stable cooperative relationships with upstream and downstream enterprises to ensure that the production, delivery and delivery of chips can meet customer needs.
In summary, fabs face a dilemma between mature and state-of-the-art processes, and need to respond by accurately market demand and rational allocation of capacity. For TSMC, price reduction and order grabbing is a temporary countermeasure, but in the future, it still needs to achieve long-term stable development through technological progress and market **. Only on the basis of continuous innovation and win-win cooperation can wafer fabs maintain a competitive advantage in the global chip manufacturing industry and achieve sustainable development.