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Today, we will focus on interpreting yesterday's Zhongyang Economic Work Conference in great detail to analyze its important guiding significance for the future development of A-shares and the direction of sector investment.
This high-level economic work conference is mainly to arrange next year's economic work and set the tone for next year's economic work, which is often an important indicator of the trend and points directly to the direction of the trend.
By comparing the presentations of last year's meeting, the primary concern is the degree of positivity of the overall tone. Last year's meeting emphasized the principle of "stability first" and the indispensable principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability," which can be summed up in just one word. But what about this year?The expression of this year's meeting is different, and it should be noted that the emphasis on "seeking progress while maintaining stability" focuses on the word "progress", which opens up a policy space conducive to stabilizing expectations, growth, and employment, and provides flexibility for the transition from stability to good. To summarize simply, 2024 will be more positive than 2023, focusing on "progress", do you understand?
Let's look at the specifics.
The conference emphasized the importance of scientific and technological innovation and the construction of a modern industrial system, such as new industrialization, digital economy and artificial intelligence, in the first place.
Combined with the current trend of U.S. stocks and European markets, the key point is that next year's A-share trend will also tend to this direction. In addition, the conference also mentioned commercial aerospace, which is also an important branch of science and technology. At the same time, the meeting called for strengthening the main position of enterprise scientific and technological innovation, and putting scientific and technological innovation in the first place.
Secondly, the meeting focused on the expansion of domestic demand, and also talked about several directions, we focus on electronic products, consumer electronics will have a big wave in 2024, because it has both technology and consumption dual attributes.
Compared with last year, there are big differences in the judgment of the situation this year and next year, mainly reflected in the lack of effective demand, overcapacity in some industries, weak social expectations, and more risks and hidden dangers. In terms of overcapacity, we can think of the current situation in new energy fields such as lithium carbonate and photovoltaics.
Now the social expectations are weak, which is confirmed by the pessimism at the bottom of the market, so we say that next year is to seek progress while maintaining stability, in order to enhance market confidence and confidence. Overall, next year's ** should have a good performance, I believe this is also a situation that everyone is looking forward to and can't believe, after all, who can you love if you have been broken.
In terms of fiscal policy, this year it was clearly stated that it would focus on supporting scientific and technological innovation and the development of the manufacturing industry, once again highlighting the theme of big technology. In the monetary policy, financial institutions are required to increase support for scientific and technological innovation, digital economy and other fields, which was not available last year. In the description of the modern industrial system, new energy, artificial intelligence, biomanufacturing, green and low-carbon, quantum computing and other contents were mentioned last year, but this year only some contents such as biomanufacturing, commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and quantum life science were retained.
Note that the new energy is gone and has been deleted, so, therefore, for investors who are optimistic about the prospects of new energy, it is still necessary to remain cautious, and friends who are bullish on new energy in 2024 should be cautious.
On the whole, compared with last year, this economic work conference is more active, and the development direction is more focused on the fields of big science and technology and science and technology.
The above only represents personal views, not investment advice, Today's hot analysis is here, if you think the big volume makes sense, you can pay attention, if you refute it, then you are right. We'll see you next time.