Luke is working hard to revise The Burning Kingdom of Heaven, and the author of this article is stormy.
On the evening of November 22, 2023, in the southeastern Ukrainian town of Avadiivka, the harsh winter has come, the cold wind is blowing, a group of soldiers walk on the street with expressionless faces, no one speaks, no one even raises their heads, and there seems to be no sound around except the cold wind.
This is the unit that the Ukrainian army has just withdrawn from the industrial zone in the southeast, the industrial zone is an important peripheral position in Avadiivka, and the Ukrainian troops responsible for garrisoning it are the 53 brigade and the 110 brigade.
As a fortress built by the Ukrainian army for eight years, once Avadiivka is lost, another fortress Marinka will inevitably not be able to be saved, and the Ukrainian army will not only lose the ability to threaten Donetsk City, but also the Red Army City, which is the supply hub of the Ukrainian army in Don Oblast, will face the Russian army.
Around November 22, the situation in Avadiivka).
As for the reason for the defeat, the 110 Brigade blamed the 53 Brigade for leaving its position without authorization, resulting in the exposure of its own flanks, while the 53 Brigade said that the responsibility was all on the 110 Brigade, and no one on either side would give in, and this infighting was only a microcosm of the current state of Ukraine.
Because of an even bigger infighting, the infighting between Zelensky and the commander-in-chief of the army, Zaluzhny, is already being staged, and things have to start from the beginning of November.
At the beginning of November, Zaluzhny gave an exclusive interview to the British ** "The Economist" on the matter of "Zaporozhye Da**".
Since June 4 this year, the "Zaporozhye **" has attracted the attention of the world, if the Ukrainian army can succeed, Russia is likely to lose the war completely, for this reason, the West has given a lot of assistance, and also specially trained 9 NATO brigades for the Ukrainian army, commonly known as the "Nine King Kongs".
In terms of combat methods, the Ukrainian army tried to replicate the victory in Kharkiv in September last year, and directly used a wave offensive to split the Russian army in Ukraine into two, but it turned out that in the face of the Russian defense line that has become a fortress, the Ukrainian army cannot rush at all, and can only fight hard.
After several months of attacking the fortified positions and paying the price of tens of thousands of people, the Ukrainian army only took 10 villages, and it was hopeless to reach the coast of the Sea of Azov, and there was an excellent opportunity such as the Wagner mutiny in the middle, but the Ukrainian army failed to seize it, and by October, the Ukrainian army was obviously unable to move.
At the beginning of November, the 47th Brigade of the main forces of the Ukrainian army in the Kuban direction was transferred to Avadiivka, and several Marine brigades of the Ukrainian army in the direction of Veliko Novosilka were transferred to the Kherson direction, officially announcing the end of "Zaporozhye **".
The big ** failed, and Zaluzhny, as the commander-in-chief of the army, of course, had to come out to explain the situation, so there was this interview.
Commander-in-Chief Za said that "the battlefield has reached a stalemate", "just like in the First World War, it is difficult for the Ukrainian army to make a far-reaching and beautiful breakthrough." ”
This statement is already quite euphemistic, at least it did not directly admit defeat, but unexpectedly, it caused Zelensky's strong dissatisfaction.
On the same day, Zelensky announced that the commander of the special forces, Viktor Khorenko, would be removed and replaced by Colonel Sergei Lupanchuk, which was a very strange appointment, Khorenko was very confused about his removal, he said that he had not received any news in advance, and he knew that he had been removed from the news afterwards.
The general interpretation of this appointment by the outside world is that Zelensky is attacking Zaluzhny, because Khorenko is Zaluzhny's person.
On the left is Khorenko).
The day after the bizarre appointment, Zelenskyy's office condemned Zaluzhny, arguing that he should not have said something like "stalemate", which would only cause panic among Western allies and encourage Russia.
It is equivalent to making the contradiction between the two public.
Then, even more bizarrely, on November 5, Zaluzhny publicly said that his deputy Chastyakov was killed on his birthday, how did he die?
Chastyakov received a gift box on his birthday, he opened it without suspicion, there was a grenade in it, he thought it was a gift blind box, so he picked it up, and then ** happened, he died on the spot, and one of the children present was seriously injured.
Whether this was an accident, or Zelensky was warning Zaluzhny, or something else, we can only wait for time to give an answer.
On December 1, Mariana, a member of parliament from the Servant of the People Party of Ukraine, publicly called for Zaluzhny's resignation, and in the face of the continuous offensive of his opponents, Zaluzhny's camp did not show weakness.
On December 3, Kyiv Mayor Klitschko said in an interview that "Commander-in-Chief Za is telling the truth about the situation at the front, the battlefield has reached a stalemate, and it is the duty of certain Ukrainian politicians to explain and recognize the current state of affairs to Western partners, but in reality they do not listen to the truth".
"Certain Ukrainian politicians" here, apparently, refers to Zelensky.
Klitschko further stated that "Ukraine's future has become no different from that of Russia, and it is sliding towards authoritarianism".
According to Ukrainian law, the term of office is 5 years, Zelensky came to power in 2019, and it should be ** next year, but Zelensky refused to hold ** some time ago, on the grounds that the country is in a state of war, and he, as a wartime **, should be directly re-elected.
This attitude has aroused the dissatisfaction of many Ukrainian politicians, Klitschko is one of them, and the above remarks are in the connotation that Zelensky wants to use the wartime state to engage in personal ** and continue to be re-elected.
On December 4, "Ukrainska Pravda" stabbed out a fierce revelation that Zelensky was bypassing Zaluzhny and directly commanding the Ukrainian army on the front line, and those who were willing to accept direct command of the Ukrainian army were called "good troops", and those who did not accept it were called "bad troops".
At this point, the two factions have become on the same page, and Ukraine has come to a fork in the road.
It is clear that the enemy is currently in power, but the two factions in Ukraine are about to fight among themselves, and it is becoming more and more intense, what do you think?
Zaluzhny and Zelensky).
On the surface, the reason for the infighting is that after the Russian-Ukrainian war, because Ukraine's performance greatly exceeded expectations, it not only withstood Russia's attack, but also successfully implemented ** locally, shattering Russia's "second military power in the world" beauty filter, Zelensky, who is the number one person in the country, and Zaluzhny, who is the number two person, have gained great prestige.
Zelensky hopes to be re-elected with this political capital, as for Zaluzhny, it has been rumored that he will take off his military uniform and run for Ukraine in 2024.
But I think that the possible 2024 battle between the two is only a secondary factor, and the deeper reason is the disagreement between the two sides about the present and the future.
The current disagreement between the two sides lies in whether to admit the defeat of Zaporozhye, Zaluzhny admitted the defeat of the big ** according to objective reality, while Zelensky resolutely refuses to admit it, believing that the big ** is still going on, and it has only encountered a temporary setback.
In fact, anyone with a discerning eye can see that no matter how military novice Zelensky is, he won't be able to see it, why don't you admit it?
This is closely related to the first strategy after the start of the war in Ukraine.
After the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine has demonstrated excellent combat capabilities, on the one hand, through a large number of material dissemination (including but not limited to the "Bucha incident"), Ukraine has successfully put itself on the moral high ground;
On the other hand, in order to stabilize the hearts of the people and the army, the official figures of Ukraine to destroy the enemy are extremely exaggerated, according to the official figures of Ukraine, so far Russia has paid a heavy price of 300,000 killed, 20,000 tanks and armored vehicles, and hundreds of fighters, while the losses of the Ukrainian army itself are negligible, and the number of dead is more than 10,000.
In fact, people with a little military common sense know that if these figures are true, today the Russian army will not encircle Avadiivka, but to defend Moscow.
But fortunately, the military is an extremely niche field, most people in the world do not understand the military, coupled with the cooperation of the Western hegemony, the so-called "a lie repeated a thousand times is the truth", under the overwhelming draft, the Ukrainian army is brave and fearless, invincible, and the image of the Russian army is cowardly and incompetent, which has been successfully shaped.
Since the Ukrainian army is so brave and fearless, Zelensky, who is the first, will also become lofty, after all, if it is not the best leader, how can the Ukrainian army be reborn.
Frankly speaking, it is not Zelensky who is messing around with such a propaganda strategy.
Eight years ago, in 2014, the Ukrainian army was defeated in the confrontation between the eastern part of Ukraine and the Russian army, so that it had a deep psychological shadow on the Russian army.
So at the end of February last year, when they heard that the Russian army had sent troops in a big way, many Ukrainian troops were frightened, the Ukrainian army in Luhansk retreated to the twin cities in great strides, the Ukrainian army on the left bank of Kherson collapsed directly, and even the far-right Azov battalion retracted to the base camp Mariupol in panic, and the important strongholds on the periphery were not guarded.
In this case, Zelensky must first stabilize the morale of the army and the people, otherwise everything will not be discussed.
The easiest way is to publicize the war and exaggerate the results, and if there are really no results, then create the results. Therefore, in the early days of the Russian-Ukrainian war, we heard a lot of outrageous results of the Ukrainian army, such as a Ukrainian army destroying many Russian tanks with only one rifle, and the legendary Ukrainian ace pilot "Kyiv Ghost" who shot down many Russian fighters.
When the Russian army was forced to withdraw from the northern front in early April, Ukraine was reassured from top to bottom, and at the same time, many Ukrainians really believed in these myths, thinking that the Ukrainian army was really so strong, and the will to resist was greatly enhanced, and Zelensky's image became lofty.
In the subsequent battles, Ukrainian officials did not change this propaganda strategy, perhaps after eating the sweetness, they wanted to eat more.
After the successful Kharkiv counterattack in September, the mythical image of the Ukrainian army and Zelensky was once again strengthened.
However, this propaganda tactic has a great negative effect, and at the end of September last year, when the Ukrainian army made a huge breakthrough in Kharkiv and Redman, it should continue to mobilize heavy troops to attack Kreminna, the gateway to the twin cities of Luhansk.
However, the Ukrainian army did not do this, but played meat grinding with Mut and Wagner, and transferred more than 10 main brigades before and after, and in the end, **huge, **Mut did not hold on, and missed the best fighter since the start of the war in vain.
This is a puzzling thing from a military point of view, but from a propaganda point of view, it is clear.
Under the overwhelming exaggerated propaganda, the Ukrainian army is no longer an ordinary person, but has become a god, and God cannot defeat the battle, nor can he give up an inch of land, or have any retreating moves, otherwise the divinity will be shattered, and then there will be a huge backlash, so in the face of Wagner's harassment in **Muth, we must go back and fight Prigozhin to the end.
No matter how long it takes, it must be fought, and this is not a military issue, it is a matter of face.
And the same goes for "Zaporozhye Da**".
You know, the West has given a lot of aid for this time, and Ukrainian officials have also vigorously promoted it, and in the past, you could win if you didn't have much aid, but now with Leopard 2 and Bradley, you can only win and win.
If it fails, it will be a great slap in the face, and if you can't get the bubble created by the past propaganda, it will burst because of it.
Therefore, from the point of view of Ukraine, it is absolutely impossible to admit defeat, it is only a temporary setback, and Zaporozhye cannot be hit head-on, so change the location of ** to the left bank of Kherson, and constantly send marines to force landings from the right bank.
There are no logistical disadvantages in the Zaporozhye Plain, and there are a large number of heavy equipment, you can't even beat the Russian defense line, and now there is an extra Dnieper River hundreds of meters wide, and heavy equipment can't be transported, and it's impossible to move with infantry and light ** alone.
It occupies a half village on the left bank, and is shelled every day, just to perpetuate the propaganda bubble. No way, the propaganda bubble can't burst, at least not now.
Zaluzhny, who has been a professional soldier for decades and is the commander-in-chief of the army, still has basic military qualities, and he believes that there is no need to continue the suicidal offensive for the sake of promoting his image.
This is the difference between the two sides on the present, that is, the first difference. The second difference lies in the different judgments of the two sides on the future direction.
Zaluzhny saw that Western support for Ukraine has been weakened, and Ukraine's own industrial system has been crumbled, and at most it can produce some light **.
On the contrary, after the initial sanctions, Russia's industrial system has recovered to a certain extent, for example, this year it has achieved the localization of Iranian small motorcycles. Under the situation of eliminating the advantages of the other, I am afraid that it will be difficult to hold even the current front, and the last bit of capital will be lost, so we should cease fire on the spot, strive for time for obscene development, and then decide the winner in the future.
And Zelensky does not admit the stalemate, and he has a point.
First of all, in terms of national development potential, Ukraine is far inferior to Russia in terms of population and resources, and now it has been bitten down by Russia in five oblasts, and the potential gap is even greater.
You know this, I know it, Zelensky knows it better.
Moreover, Russia has not been seriously affected by the war, and the military industry has recovered to a certain extent, on the other hand, on the Ukrainian side, the original three major industrial areas: Donbass Industrial Zone, Kharkiv Industrial Zone and Dnipro Industrial Zone, the Donbass Industrial Zone was lost, and the other two were basically blown up.
Theoretically, it is possible to rebuild the industrial zone in Usi, but that is not something that can be done in three or five years, not to mention that Russia will watch you rebuild?
From time to time, there are two "calibers", or a large number of "small motorcycles", which investor dares to invest?
In this case, what do you use to fight for the future with Russia.
Moreover, obscene development requires industrial transfer, even if a ceasefire can be achieved, can Ukraine get industrial transfer from the West?
Basically impossible.
There are so many countries in Central and Eastern Europe, the only one that has received more industrial transfer after the Cold War is Poland, which is built as a model project, and the proximity to Germany, so many German companies have set up foundries in Poland.
In addition to Poland, the remaining Eastern European countries not only could not get industrial transfer, but also some of the original industries could not be maintained, such as Romania and Bulgaria, after years of deindustrialization, directly returned to agricultural countries.
In the context of the West's own "re-industrialization", how many industries can be distributed to others, Ukraine, as a peripheral country, far from the core area of the European Union, is destined to not have much meat.
The development potential can't be struggling, and there is not much hope for industrial transfer, so it is completely hopeless to fight for the future with Russia.
The only way out for Ukraine is to defeat Russia as soon as possible, even if it can't be defeated, while the West is still willing to support, and while the Russian-Ukrainian war is still hot in the world, even if it can't be defeated, it must regain a little more lost territory.
As for the price that needs to be paid, to be honest, it is possible to get a return for paying the price now, and in the future, when Russia digests the four states and stabilizes its position, even if it is willing to pay the price, there will be no return.
Besides, after the last three or five years, there is a big question mark over whether the West is willing to support Ukraine.
One side is pessimistic about the future and believes that Russia must be resolved now, while the other side is not necessarily optimistic, but realizes that Russia cannot be solved at the moment and can only be resolved later, which is the biggest difference between the two factions.
And this disagreement is tearing apart the Ukrainian army and spreading to the political level, and the continuation of infighting will inevitably lead to more losses on the front line, and the country of Ukraine has reached a fork in the road.
In fact, it is not only Ukraine that has come to a fork in the road, and the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the world is extremely far-reaching.
Prior to this, once a country encountered the extreme sanctions of the West, it was basically the rhythm of the end, and it had to shed its skin if it did not die.
But Russia, for the first time, has withstood the limit of sanctions, including the SWIFT financial nuclear bomb, according to the latest IMF **, Russia will achieve 22% GDP growth.
A country at war, a country with extreme sanctions, can grow by 22% is definitely the first time in history, which shows that Russia has passed the crisis, and the influence of Western sanctions on Russian society is getting smaller and smaller.
In everything, there is a first time, there is a second time, and then there are countless times.
In the past, the vast number of developing countries had to crawl under the feet of imperialism for a long time because they were afraid of sanctions, and their ideas, systems, and cultures were all based on the West.
And now, as the fear of Western sanctions fades, more and more countries will struggle to break free from imperialism, and when the vast majority of developing countries do so, a profound change is coming.
It is not only Ukraine that stands at the fork in the road, but also the world.
Luke has previously written two articles, "Ukraine Bows Its Head and Is Silent" and "Why Ukraine Has Arrived", which gave a detailed interpretation of Ukraine's history and political situation, and also recorded the process of Ukraine's decline step by step.
Readers who have not read these two articles can get it by private chat [Ukraine] in the background!!