Let's start with the viewpointNo particular chances, Commodities are still more expected and market sentiment, the reality is indeed very weak, and the far month can not be falsified and confirmed, and the disk is still expected. The overall stance of the ZZJ meeting on Friday was positive, but some new formulations appeared, such as "first establish and then break", what does it mean?What is it that stands?What does it mean to be broken?Friends can, the contemptible skills are not too high, and they can't see deeply. "Li" may refer to setting new standards, establishing ZF's credibility, and setting new ethical standards. "Break" is more obscure, most people think it is "broken", "broken", I am more positive, may mean breakthrough. **Don't talk about guidance, it feels like "one size fits all", Mr. Wu Jinglian's speech 10 years ago was 404 birds. A little bit of a disappointment.
No matter how you interpret it, this meeting still did not mention real estate, and the financial side insisted on not having systemic risks, so there is a high probability that there is no play, and the marginal elasticity of policy commissions is weakened. This week, let's see what the economic meeting on the 12th and 14th is, and whether there will be some specific measures.
The meeting pointed out that next year, we must persist in seeking progress while maintaining stability and promoting stability through progressFirst stand and then breakWe will strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical macroeconomic policy adjustments, and continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. The proactive fiscal policy should be moderately strengthened, improve quality and efficiency, and the prudent monetary policy should be flexible, moderate, precise and effective. It is necessary to enhance the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation, and strengthen economic propaganda and guidance. It is necessary to lead the construction of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation, and improve the resilience and safety level of the industrial chain. Efforts should be made to expand domestic demand and form a virtuous circle in which consumption and investment promote each other. It is necessary to deepen reforms in key areas and continue to inject strong impetus into high-quality development. It is necessary to expand high-level opening up to the outside world and consolidate the basic market of foreign trade and foreign investment. It is necessary to continue to effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas, and resolutely adhere to the bottom line of no systemic risks. It is necessary to make unremitting efforts to do a good job in the "three rural" work, and promote the integration of urban and rural areas and the coordinated development of regions. It is necessary to further promote the construction of ecological civilization and green and low-carbon development, and accelerate the construction of a beautiful China. We must persist in doing our best and doing what we can to effectively protect and improve people's livelihood.Overseas needs to pay attention to Japan's interest rate hike expectations, vaguely remember 06 years "devil" made once, when a large amount of yen flowed back to the country, the peripheral liquidity tightened periodically, triggering a chain reaction. In addition, the strong non-farm payrolls data in November, the expectation of a recession in the market trading is further postponed, and if the CPI of the old United States in November is further reduced, then the market's expectation that the easing will begin in June next year will be falsified.
At this stage, commodities have entered a period of moving positions to change months, and the logic of the industry has begun to take place in recent months, and the macro is expected to price far-month contracts, and the opportunities between the months may be better than unilateral.
Let's talk about the meal first, the top is suppressed by the weather, and Uncle Liang keeps buying it. In the short term**, there is no particularly big **, last time mentionedM1-5 washed back and forth for more than 200 points, and the little friends who insisted on the right set tasted the sweetness, but this is a point in time and can't be seen too high, and it can be derived if there is a profit. The trading weather is the most uncertain and even more so in South America: the rains in Mato last week were not bad, but they were not as expected, mainly because the heavy rains on 4 days ** did not materialize. According to the latest**, the rain will be better in the coming week (12 11-12 17), mainly concentrated in 12 11-12 15;The next second week (18-12 24) will have very good rain every day.
The oil is also biased towards chicken ribs, the origin is not sold if it falls more, and the boat is less when it rises, and it washes back and forth!Last week, it was obviously to go to the library, but the disk did not reflect well, and it felt like it was about to reach the bottom range. Therefore, it is not easy to do, 80% of the business is loss-making, and there are those who run away and thunder, and it is advisable to trade fast in and out, and whether there is a possibility of inflation next year.
Pigs at the end of November went a wave of demand was falsified, strong expectations led to a panic of pigs, 3 days to go to the bird, the short-term bottom is out, but it is just a **, after all, the spot bottomed out. If it is a medium and long-term fund, you can pay attention to the general logic of the multi-CPI empty real estate end, and the asset allocation can be gradually involved.
Local research down, residents' consumption is generally stable, mainly the pork consumption of catering has been reduced by two, three percent, this year is a cheap pig price, the people should eat, there is no deliberate province. If the 23-year-old ** had not been greatly disturbed by the epidemic, it should have been able to come out. In the first two years, the spread at the end of February was -2570 and -2675 respectivelyLH03-05 can be paid attention to!
In addition, the number of times the FGW** pig food ratio began to increase, which can be used as a policy signal, and the following quotation is for reference only.
[The national *** pig grain price comparison on December 6 was 550, month-on-month **018%] According to national data, as of December 6, the national pig market was 1463 yuan kg, than November 29 **135%；The main wholesale market corn ** is 266 yuan kg, than 1 on November 2948%；The price of pig grain is 550, than 0 on November 2918%。
This wave of industry is completely wrong, in recent months 01 liter of water spot 100+, a lot of hedging and futures traders entered, including some glass factories, it is estimated that there are about 30-60w tons of volume, it depends on who can stick to the end, the market is weak and the reality is strong, ** pull the spot, the typical is expected first, the reality does not follow the problem. Therefore, it is recommended that everyone do it in the early stageThe idea of glass reversal is right, but it is close to the "extreme" range, and the partner needs to take profit and control in stages, and pay attention to the positive set of FG5-9.
Soda ash, on the other hand, has always been spot strong. Of course, the reversal of the hedge in the past few days may have a certain relationship with the longs and expected preferences, and the general trend is not much different from the last mention. Soda ash insists on doing the right set, the big discount can be configured, there is a "moth" event YX as a backing, there will not be too many variables, unless YX talks about "martial arts", soda ash to participate in only one variable a day, arbitrage in the month for the time being, wait and see, is too high, dare not participate in the bird.
The old rule starts with the point of view:Not bearish on domestic commodities. The "periphery" is so poor--- geopolitics, Sino-US confrontation, entrepot restrictions, economic downturn under the big cycle, and the path dependence of domestic stimulus is expected to always exist. At the same time,Foreign countries cannot be recycled, and the huge domestic "production capacity" cannot be digested, so the economy can only be maintained through internal circulationThe issuance of treasury bonds is the first step, and it will be seen whether the PSL can be landed.
The recent performance is also black stronger than other commodities, the policy expectations are too much to fall, ** should give a good opportunity to get on the car, continue to rush and need stronger expectations and reality, so still wait for a good **, and then discuss. In terms of strategy, it is recommended that you do RB1-3 in the right set:
1.The warehouse receipt of thread 2401 is less, and it is currently known that 1w tons of Hubei steel, 2w tons of new steel, and 08w tons, there are 42w positions on the disk 01, and it is difficult to fall if you squeeze 01;
2.Thread 2403 someone's seat is too heavy, and it's all procedural, as shown below. After December, it will be necessary to limit positions, and will face liquidity and position restrictions in the future.
Sorb1-3The positive set is possiblePay attention, there is still a possibility of reaching 100 in the future。FYI!
The above views and some strategies are for your reference only.