Block 815,690 is the latest outlier to cause speculation. The block was mined on November 7 and took 1 hour and 9 minutes. Public interest in confirmation times longer than an hour is not an occasional event. About once or twice a year, the agency reports on a very long block validation activity and decides to cover the story.
On October 17, 2022, a well-known crypto news** reported on a block that took 1 hour and 25 minutes, triggering a series of similar reports. As the story went viral on social media, some fans were excited about the relative speed of their favorite centralized altcoin.
The report eventually caught the attention of Lighting Network founder Tadge Dryja, but he was clearly unmoved.
As Dryja pointed out on X (formerly Twitter):"Every 34 days or so, there will be an 85-minute block interval (assuming there are no difficulty changes, etc.). ”
Dryja's point is clear: a single block mined for a long time does not cause panic.
While almost everyone who knows Bitcoin knows that Bitcoin's proof-of-work consensus mechanism is a computational guesswork puzzle, the math that underpins this knowledge is extremely difficult to understand.
The probability of a block time of up to 1 hour is relatively low. Most of the time, blocks mined for a longer period of time will not be noticed, at least not noticed.
This may help explain why it becomes a topic of conversation whenever someone stumbles upon a longer block.
In February 2021, Bitcoin Jack, a member of the cryptocurrency community on X, noticed that 1 hour and 46 minutes had passed between blocks 670,637 and 670,638. This is just one block confirmed, whereas 10 or 11 blocks are usually expected.
Jack tagged cypherpunk and Bitcoin advocate James Lopp, asking how common such incidents are. Lopp confirmedIn the last 12 years, 190 blocks have been mined for 106 minutes or more. However, it is worth remembering that in the earliest years, Bitcoin blocks tended to take longer to be mined, which makes the data slightly skewed.
Today, the average block interval (orange bar) relative to Bitcoin** (black line) is much more stable than it was in the earliest years.
Blocks that take more than an hour are more common than most Bitcoin enthusiasts think, but some are more extreme.
One such block appeared immediately after Satoshi Nakamoto mined the genesis block on January 3, 2009. This block is probably the most famous block in the history of Bitcoin. Understand that its inscription "03 01 2009 Chancellor of the Exchequer on the brink of a second bank bailout" is actually the right of way for Bitcoin.
On January 3, 2009, Satoshi Nakamoto excavated the genesis block, and then such a block was created. That block is probably the most famous in the history of Bitcoin. Learning Xi inscription on it, "03 Jan 2009 chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks", is almost a traditional ritual in the Bitcoin community.
The next block in the Bitcoin blockchain is little known, but no less fascinating. It wasn't until six days later, on January 9, that the second block was mined. Bitcoin fans are speculating about what it means – or if it makes any sense at all.
Some theorists even claim that the six-day waiting period is a biblical parable – let Bitcoin appear. Regardless of the truth, the time gap between these two blocks is still the longest in Bitcoin's history.
On the other hand, some blocks have roughly the same timestamp as their predecessor, while others have a timestamp that predates their predecessor. Of course, timestamps aren't always accurate, especially since humans can adjust the clock of Bitcoin miners.
According to the timestamp**, Bitcoin block 156,113 was mined at 8:16 a.m. on December 5. These same ** show that Bitcoin block 156,114 was mined at 6:17 a.m. on December 5, i.e. one hour and 59 minutes earlier.
This would be a clever trick if accurate, but the likely cause of these time-related hoaxes is a clock calibration error on the mining rig.
Understanding block time is tricky because it relies on probability, but other factors further complicate the problem. On the one hand, the number of miners on the network is constantly changing.
To ensure that the 10-minute average is maintained, the Bitcoin mining difficulty can be adjusted every 2016 blocks. If the average score is too high, the difficulty is reduced; If it's too low, the difficulty increases.
When Lopp investigated Bitcoin block times in 2021, he concluded, "By analyzing the actual distribution of block times, we can see that the mathematics behind the 10-minute block times positioned over the past 12 years is fairly stable, and the anomalies in a few edge cases can be easily explained." ”
Bitcoin average block interval (in seconds).
Over the past five years, the average block interval on the Bitcoin blockchain has dropped by less than a minute from the target for all but one month. In 3 of the last 5 years, the annual average was within 10 seconds of the 10-minute target.
Through these indicators,The Bitcoin network has become more stable and reliable over time.
A single "edge case" from this period occurred in June 2021. At the end of May 2021, Bitcoin mining was banned in China. The result is a sharp drop in the computing power of the network mining blocks. In June, as the network coped with the ripple effect, Bitcoin averaged 732 seconds to a block time, more than two minutes longer than the target time.
It wasn't until December 2021 that the network computing power returned to its previous level, but the 10-minute window was re-established in July due to difficulty adjustments.
In November 2018, during the crypto winter, the average block time rose to 670 seconds. This happens because miners shut down old, less efficient mining rigs that are no longer profitable in the case of Bitcoin***.
In both cases, the network self-corrects itself in the following month. When it comes to longer blocks, the Bitcoin network is a battle-tested self-righting machine.
Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute any investment advice, investment is risky, and participation should be cautious.