Yuan Wei recently conducted research on Zhifei Biotechnology and released a research report "Proposed Acquisition of Chen'an Biotechnology and Business Extension to the Field of Metabolic Diseases", this report gives Zhifei Biotech a ** rating, and the current stock price is 5778 yuan.
Zhifei Biotech (300122).
Brief evaluation of performance. On November 23, 2023, the company announced that the company and Chongqing Chen'an Biopharmaceutical***Chongqing Zhirui Investment*** Zhang Gaoxia reached a preliminary intention on Zhifei Biopharmaceutical's intention to acquire 100% of the equity of Zhirui Investment and Chen'an Biotechnology held by Zhang Gaoxia in cash and signed the "Equity Acquisition Intent Agreement". In order to deepen the company's self-developed technology and product layout in biopharmaceuticals and achieve the development goal of building a "world-class national biopharmaceutical enterprise", the company intends to inject Chen'an Biotechnology into the company through this transaction, and the company's business territory will be extended to cover the field of metabolic diseases such as diabetes and obesity, and the company will also enter the field of first-class biopharmaceuticals. The specific pricing, timing and proportion of payment of the consideration shall be determined by the parties separately through negotiation and signing of the definitive equity purchase agreement or similar transaction documents.
Business analysis. The target company focuses on diabetes, obesity and other fields, and a number of drugs have entered the clinical stage. The target company to be acquired, Chen'an Biotech, is a biopharmaceutical company relying on the recombinant protein technology platform invested and incubated by the Zhirui investment platform, focusing on the field of metabolic diseases such as diabetes and obesity, and has formed a clear pipeline layout of GLP-1 similar drugs and insulin analogues. Up to now, Chenan Biotech has 6 drug candidates that have entered the clinical stage, among which recombinant liraglutide injection and insulin degludec injection have completed phase III clinical trials and are in the application and marketing stageRecombinant semaglutide injection has been in the phase III clinical trial. In addition, the GLP-1 GIP dual-target receptor agonist and oral semaglutide tablets are in the preclinical stage. In terms of production capacity, Chen'an Biotech has built 1 preparation workshop and 2 API workshops.
The R&D and innovation capabilities have been continuously strengthened, and the construction of independent products has been accelerated. According to the company's investor relations documents, as of November 2023, the company has 29 independent research and development projects, 16 projects have entered the clinical trial and registration application stage, and a number of products are in the product application stage or phase III clinical trials, including quadrivalent influenza virus split vaccine, freeze-dried human rabies vaccine (MRC-5 cell valent pneumococcal tuberculosis vaccine, quadrivalent flow brain conjugate vaccine, Fuchsonnei dysentery bivalent conjugate vaccine and other products. The company will continue to increase its scientific research efforts and make every effort to promote the progress of clinical trials of various pipeline products under development.
Earnings**, Valuations & Ratings.
Temporarily ignoring the contribution of the target company to be acquired to the performance, we maintain profitability**, and it is expected that the company will achieve net profit attributable to the parent company from 2023 to 2025. $100 million (+13%). The corresponding EPS of the company from 2023 to 2025 are: 42 yuan, corresponding to the current PE are times. Maintain the "** rating.
Risk Warning. R&D progress is not as expected;Product promotion and sales are less than expected;**Policy adjustment risk;Bad debts increase risk.
*According to the calculation of the research report data released in the past three years, the research team of Huang Hanyang of Xingye has conducted in-depth research on the stock, and the average accuracy of the stock in the past three years is as high as 9765%, and its ** attributable net profit in 2023 is 902.7 billion, and the **PE converted according to the current price is 1545。
The latest profit** breakdown is as follows:
A total of 25 institutions have rated the stock in the last 90 days, with 23 ** ratings and 2 overweight ratingsThe average institutional price target over the last 90 days is 766。
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