We have just been hit by a major crisis, and history is repeating itself

Mondo History Updated on 2024-01-28

On December 5, EU President Ursula von der Leyen saidThe EU will not accept a long-term imbalance with China, the EU has the tools to protect its market.

On December 6, a reporter asked about this, and Wang Wenbin, a spokesman for China, said: I want to tell you one thingChina has never deliberately pursued a surplusOn the contrary, we continue to promote high-level opening-up by actively holding the China International Import Expo and the International Chain Promotion ExpoWe welcome all countries to better share China's huge market of more than 1.4 billion people

What does the European Union mean?

What is a long-term imbalance?

Because of the Central European ** in China,China has been in a surplus for a long time, and the surplus is widening.

China has always been the EU's largest partner, and in 2022, the EU imported 6,260 euros of Chinese goods, but only exported 2,303 euros to ChinaThe deficit amounted to 395.7 billion euros

After reading this data, the EU got angry and said that what you are doing is not right, isn't this a typical half-sided exchangeI bought so many of your things, why don't you buy my things?

China says, this blames me?

I'm not buying your stuff?

I've spread out all my national markets to you, and I'm completely sharing them with youUh, you can come and sell at any time, and I welcome you to come and sell.

But you have to have it, what do you have for me to buy?

China says that there are so many countries in the world, and I am the only one who is engaged in the import expo, so I want to buy your things, but you have to have something for me to buy!Indeed, in our daily life today, we hardly see European manufacturing, nor do we see any European brands.

3 years ago, we really wanted to buy European lithography machines, but Europe held the lithography machine as a treasure, especially the United States threatened, Europe did not dare to sell, ASML said that China will never be able to make lithography machines.

As a result, in just 3 years, we came up with our own chips, and no one paid attention to the lithography machine, and Europe was dumbfounded.

Of course, Europe doesn't sell nothing.

In 2021,Very unfortunate things happenedChina has become the world's largest luxury market, with a rapid growth of 18% compared to 2020, with total consumption reaching US$146.5 billion, nearly 1 trillion yuan, accounting for 46% of the global market.

Europe has made a lot of money as the world's largest producer of luxury goods, and brands represented by Hermes have soared all the way in ChinaThe wool is soft, and the scythe is cut by cutting leeks, they buy 6,000 yuan for a 6 yuan keychain, and they sell a 300 yuan bag for 30,000 yuan.

20 years ago, it was 300 million pairs of jeans for an airplane;

Today, it's 10,000 Chinese phones for an Italian or French purse.

Luxury goods are the last glory of Europe, and they have supported the ** of France and Italy. In addition, Europe also sells good agricultural products, imported fruits, Nordic seafood, Dutch milk, German beer, and French wine.

China's exports are mainly mechanical and electrical products, large machinery, electronic parts, home appliances and computers.

The EU is also selling education products well, in the past 20 yearsTheir economic development is very stable and stagnant for a long time, and China's economic development is very unstable, all the way to the sky.

This has made countless Chinese students Xi to Europe to study economicsThink about how you can keep the economy stable, revitalizing the European economy.

However, among European countries, the UK economy is in the worst recession, so the number of Chinese students studying in the UK Xi is also the largest, and the EU will become less attractive to China after Brexit.

To sum up, now a bunch of Chinese are frantically paying IQ taxes to Europe, but Europe is still in a huge deficit, with a large amount of foreign exchange outflows every year.

If one day Europe's brand power weakens again, and luxury goods cannot be sold, it may really collapse.

In fact, China does not only have a surplus with Europe, in 2022, China's surplus will be as high as 670 billion US dollarsIt accounts for more than 1 3 of the total global surplus

Moreover,China is almost the only country in the world with a surplus in industrial goodsOther countries have surpluses, either like Australia selling ore or Saudi Arabia selling energy, and there is no technical content to speak of.

The embarrassing question comes, the crown jewel of industry has almost been picked by us,In the future, there will be fewer and fewer things that can attract us to buy abroad

Moreover, China's automobiles have only begun to exert their strength, and in the future, they will surely beat the world on their own, especially after the rise of new energy, China's surplus will expand.

This reminds me of more than a thousand years ago, after the Silk Road was developed, China continued to spread culture and technology to the West, at that time China's silk, ceramics and tea were the only recognized luxuries for the West, and only the royal family deserved to enjoy, such as silk to Rome was almost equivalent to **,But the Western world has never known what to offer China.

During the Ming Dynasty, the Western world went crazy in the Americas and then took more than 300 million taels to China to purchase "Made in China", which was shipped back to Europe thousands of miles away, but it couldn't go out of ChinaBecause Europe cannot offer anything attractive to China

From 1405 to 1433, the Ming Dynasty sent Zheng He on seven voyages to visit more than 30 countries and regions, reaching as far as East Africa and the Red Sea.

Don't think that China's great voyage is for what to show its national strength, let alone to show off its ambitionPeople aren't that stupid, okay, Zheng He also wants to do ** and bring products back to China for sale.

In the early days, Zheng He's trip to the West was actually profitableBecause I found the core product - pepper!

The pepper bought in Sumatra is only 0 per catty for local procurement01 taels, and when it was shipped back to Daming, the price skyrocketed to 0 per catty2 taels, there is a full 20 times the price difference, even if all the freight and costs are thrown away, such a profit is particularly considerable.

However, because Zheng He's transportation volume to the West was huge, the ** of pepper immediately plummeted, and the second ** dropped directly to 01 tael per catty, after the 5th time, Daming simply took the pepper as a piece and sent it to Daming**, Daming** didn't want it yet.

The only core product is gone, how can you make money in the West?In the field of consumer goods, in addition to pepper, what history records is that Zheng He can bring back is Sumu.

What is Sumu, many people don't know, it is a herbal medicine, which has the effect of invigorating blood and removing blood stasis, reducing swelling and relieving pain.

At a glance, you can see that it is impossible to expect to make money by selling this.

The West's voyage had a clear goal, because not only Chinese luxury goods, but also Indian spices were also their commercial goals. But what are our business goals?

We can sell a lot of things when we go out, but what can we buy back?Da Ming didn't think about this problem for 100 years, and finally had no choice but to stop the voyage.

In 1784, the United States specially built the Empress of China to go to China to do oceans**, and the porcelain, tea, ivory carvings, etc. imported from China quickly became the best-selling products in the United States, and even Washington** bought hundreds of porcelain.

Morris, who planned and supported the Empress of China, was appointed as the first Secretary of the Treasury by the United States, and the U.S. Congress issued a letter of commendation to the nation for the maiden voyage.

But the question soon arose, Chinese goods are very popular in the United States, but what can the United States sell to China?

American wool, lead, and fur could not be sold in the Chinese market at all, and American ginseng was the only goods that could be sold reluctantly, and as a result, every time the American merchant ship returned to the sea, the Chinese goods were sold out in one day, and after the American merchant ships arrived in China, their goods could not be sold for half a year.

This will soon be untenable.

Therefore, the EU says that it is unbalanced with China, and China says that you beep less, in fact, I am more anxious than you, the key is what can you sell me?

Why are we in a hurry, because if this is the case again, we won't be able to do it.

Another example is the internationalization of the RMBIf China wants the renminbi to become an international currency, it is impossible for China to have a large surplusOtherwise, other countries only want to buy Chinese things, and they have nothing to sell to China, so how can they have foreign exchange reserves in RMB?So why has history come to this point again?

Because in the past few decades, China has been rushing all the way, overcoming one technical difficulty after another, but the United States has taken the lead, and the entire American and Western bloc is playing worse.

In particular, Europe is the most down-to-earth, and in the past 20 years, almost no new technology has come out, whether it is the Internet or artificial intelligence, no achievements have been made!So they have less and less to sell.

As I said last time, by next year there will be more than 30 bankrupt cities in the UK, and that's the case, what else can be offered?China says that when the world is better, China can be better, and this is definitely a sincere statement.

China said that Europe, you should develop quickly, so that I can import a little more. As a result, Europe says that you don't fool people, and whoever wants to compare well with you, we will compare badly.

China said that you can study hard Xi work hard, if you don't do this, you can't go on, you can't go on with half of it, I can't take away all the surplus.

The United States said that I am a learner, I want to brush the short drama app designed by you, and I want to watch the counterattack of the domineering president and Dicks.

Unfortunately, history has once again come to reincarnation.

In 1840, Britain and the United States really had nothing to sell to China, so they hit China with iron ships and cannons, began to sell opium, and finally reversed the ** deficit.

In 2023, the US-Western bloc said that you have to buy my stuff too, otherwise I will conduct a ** investigation.

China also feels that it can't do business "half of the way", pinching its nose to buy soybeans from the United States and beef from the United Kingdom, and really don't know what to buy no matter how much it is.

After the C919 breakthrough, Airbus and Boeing's products could not be sold.

After the status of the king of new energy was established, their cars could not be sold.

It can only be said that fortunately China does not have oil, otherwise we would have taken more than half of the global surplus.

If China discovers a super iron ore mine, the consequences will be even more serious, and the business will not be able to continue.

But history can only be reincarnated halfway, can the US-Western bloc still sell opium?

They didn't even dare to move this thought, because we had Dongfeng Express.

Moreover, the world's largest drug market has long been determined, and it is in the United States!

China single-handedly took 1 3 of the world's surplus, and the United States single-handedly consumed 50% of the world's opioids.

China has become a global industrial hegemon, and its industrial output value has surpassed that of the United States, Germany, Japan and South KoreaAnd the United States has become the world's largest drug market, properly beating the world;The United States said that you see me as awesome or not, and I take more drugs alone than all of you combined.

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