Winter has always been the peak season for mutton consumption, but this year's winter mutton** continues to be sluggish, which is puzzling. AgricultureRuralMinistryMeat sheepXiao Haifeng, chief expert of monitoring and early warning, pointed out that the decline in mutton ** is not due to a decrease in consumption, in fact, the national mutton consumption has been growing. So, what is the reason for the continuous decline of mutton?This article will take a closer look at this issue.
1. Domestic mutton production is increasing
Since the beginning of this year, domesticMeat sheepThe market is relatively good, and the enthusiasm of farmers is high. Coupled with the promotion of multi-fetal sheep breeds, leading to our countryMeat sheepThe number of slaughters and the production of mutton continued to increase. AgricultureRuralMinistryMeat sheepMonitoring data shows that from January to October this year, the whole countryMeat sheepSlaughter increased by 3 year-on-year32%, the highest level since 2017. In addition, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, from 2013 to 2022, China's mutton production was annualYear-over-year growth rateThe average is 264%。From January to September this year, China's mutton output reached 3.64 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 52%, the largest increase in nearly a decade.
2. The increase in mutton imports has led to ***
At the same time, China's mutton imports are also increasing, which further impacts the domestic mutton market and promotes the growth of mutton. According toChina CustomsAccording to the data of animal products, from January to October this year, the cumulative import volume of mutton in China reached 36290,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2158%, which has exceeded the annual import volume of 2022 by 35790,000 tons;The average import of mutton** is 2907 yuan kg, down 2491%。It is expected that the import volume for the whole of this year will exceed the highest import volume in China's history, which is 41060,000 tons.
1. Pork ** continues to be low
AgricultureRuralAccording to the data of the ministry, since the beginning of 2023, pork ** has been hovering at a low level. Heading into the fifth week of November, pork ** was 2481 yuan kg, down 355%。The low cost of pork ** makes consumers choose pork more, thus replacing part of the consumption demand of mutton, and also has a lower effect on mutton**.
2. Changes in mutton consumption demand
There are certain changes in the demand for mutton consumption this year. Due to the persistence of lamb, some consumers are more inclined to buy pork. In addition, the society as a wholeConsumption structureThere has also been a change, with some consumers preferring other kinds of meat products. These factors have had a certain impact on the market demand for mutton.
In view of the trend of mutton ** in the future, Xiao Haifeng said that the weather has gradually become cold recently, coupled with the approach of New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, it is expected that the demand for mutton consumption will further increase. According to the pattern of changes in previous years, in the near futureMeat sheepThe number of slaughters will decrease. Taking into account the supply and demand of mutton, it is expected that mutton** will rebound in the near future, but it is difficult to reach the level of the same period last year.
To sum up, the increase in supply is one of the main reasons for the continued downturn in mutton**. DomesticMeat sheepThe increasing number of slaughters and the production of mutton, coupled with the increase in the import of mutton, has led to a significant increase in market supply. At the same time, the continued low level of pork ** and the change of consumers' consumption Xi have also led to the replacement of mutton ** and **. Although mutton** is expected to rebound in the future, it will be difficult to reach the level of the same period last year. For farmers, it is necessary to reasonably adjust the breeding strategy, adapt to market changes, and achieve sustainable development.