The latest data shows thatThird- and fourth-tier citiesThe new housing de-conversion cycle has reached 263 months, a record high. This foreshadowsChina's property marketThere will be a long destocking period. Third- and fourth-tier citiesDue to the slow growth of the population,property marketThe imbalance between supply and demand has led to a continuous rise in the destocking cycle. According to the relevant regulations, cities with a digestion cycle of more than 36 months should stop supplying land, therefore, some cities have reached the conditions for stopping land supply. PlusUrbanization rateReach a higher positionDemographic dividendThe effect of the gradual endThird- and fourth-tier citiesproperty marketThe situation is even more dire.
StillThird- and fourth-tier citiesThe de-escalation cycle is not static, and has changed due to the impact of new additions** and sales speed in the last 3 months. If the sales volume is not **, even if there is no new land**, the house in some cities can be sold for several years. However, cities with relatively long de-escalation cycles have not reduced land**, which will further exacerbate the imbalance between supply and demand in the market.
The main reasons can range from decreasing population growth, lack of competitiveness of cities, and moreproperty marketPolicy adjustment and other aspects of the analysis.
1.Decreasing population growth: In recent years, China has added new onesUrban populationNoticeably reduced. Urbanization ratehas reached a high level,Demographic dividenddisappears, new every yearUrban populationDramatically reduced. This makesThird- and fourth-tier citiesofproperty marketThe increase in demand has fallen sharply, leading to an increase in the de-cycle.
2.Lack of competitiveness of cities: relative to first-tier cities and strong second-tier citiesThird- and fourth-tier citiesThere is a big gap in the competitiveness and attractiveness of the industry. The lack of an advantage to attract talent and businesses has led to slow or even lost population growth in these cities. citiesEconomyCan't be sustainable, rightproperty marketDemand creates pressure.
property marketPolicy adjustment: for stabilityEconomyGrowth and employment, first- and second-tier cities are gradually lifting purchase restrictions, leading wealthy households to invest their money in big citiesproperty market。This kindTransfer paymentscausedThird- and fourth-tier citiesofproperty marketThe imbalance between supply and demand has further intensified.
The next 10 years will be a period of widening urban disparities. Fiscal revenues have decreased, manyThird- and fourth-tier citiesof public services are difficult to improve, infrastructure and publicTransportationand other areas will be affected. The loss of population will lead to the closure of kindergartens and primary schools, and the loss of young families will also increase.
Due to the sluggish growth of fiscal revenue, the fiscal revenue of land and housing decreasedThird- and fourth-tier citiesofproperty marketThere will be a longer period of downtime. Therefore, it is wisest to reduce the supply of land and exchange time for space. Third- and fourth-tier citiesEfforts are still needed to destocking new and second-hand homes. However, it is unlikely that the state will carry out another large-scale currency reform. Therefore, this requires more pragmatic measures for cities to respondproperty marketChallenges.
Fixproperty marketprocess,Third- and fourth-tier citiesThe growth of fiscal revenue will face greater difficulties. Fiscal revenues from land and housing will be reduced, and the city's investment in public services and infrastructure will be limited. Population loss will also trigger educationTransportationand other fields. Third- and fourth-tier citiesThe outlook for the future is worrying.
In the future, the gap between cities will widen even further. Large cities will continue to absorb people and money, whileThird- and fourth-tier citiesThe outlook for development is relatively sluggish. Reduced revenues and increased pressure on infrastructure will be a problem. Third- and fourth-tier citiesofproperty marketmay continue for a longer period of repair, policy adjustments andEconomyStructural transformation isCritical
In short,Third- and fourth-tier citiesproperty marketThe dilemma of destocking is the result of a combination of factors. The gap between cities will widen furtherThird- and fourth-tier citiesThe outlook for development is relatively sluggish. Policy Adjustments andEconomyTransformation will be a response to the dilemmaCritical