Today, the A-share Jedi counterattacked. But I looked at the data, except for a certain SSE 50, I didn't see a large increase in other ETFs. So it has little to do with the national team, mainly because of the spontaneous behavior of the market.
1 Bull and Bear.
For friends who are full of real estate, liquor and Hang Seng Technology, it is still a bear market today, with a decline of more than 1%.
As I have analyzed before, these three sectors can be classified as pro-cyclical, which has more to do with the macroeconomy.
If you forgot this conclusion, then let's just look at a picture.
The picture below isThe trend of liquor and Hang Seng Technology in the past two years is almost the same, even if they are in completely different industries and trading in completely different markets.
Could it be that the overall trend is very close?
Definitely. The other sectors (value, cyclical, pharmaceutical, new energy and technology) are not at all aligned with these two. You can compare and analyze it yourself, so I won't repeat it here.
Therefore, the continuation of liquor and Hang Seng Technology has little to do with fundamentalsThe core still reflects the more pessimistic expectations of funds on the macroeconomy. And one thing to say, the recently released economic data such as CPI, PPI and PMI are indeed very average.
2 Consumption downgrade or upgrade?
As for the plate itself, I don't think there's anything wrong with it.
In fact, in many cases, it is not necessary to prove anything, just refute a few specious arguments.
Every time liquor**, someone will say: Young people don't drink liquor anymore. 」
The person who said this is either very young, or he is purely at home** or engaged in pure internal work, and has very little social interaction. Because of this society, you can not drink, but it is impossible not to have business banquets and social interactions.
Attend a bureau, and you will know what grade it is as soon as the wine is placed;Participate in the activities of family and friends, and you will know how important today's theme is as soon as you have a drink.
If you must sayChina's liquor culture is dross, so how to explain the various Western liquors (more than a dozen kinds of liquor, various raw materials, various production methods, various degrees, and the complexity is no less than that of China)?
From what I've observed, it's true that young people are drinking less alcohol now. But it's perfectly fine to get some good wine and drink it sparingly. And this does not affect the sales of high-end liquor, which has a penetration rate of only 10%.
In addition, if liquor means a paradigm change, then how to explain the following companies?
From Anta to Haier, to Budweiser and Tsing Beer, to Ctrip, China Duty Free, to Chow Tai Fook, Mengniu and Haidilao, the decline this year is generally 20% to 30%, which is greater than the decline of liquor.
Now young people not only don't drink liquor, but also don't drink beer, don't buy clothes, don't buy electrical appliances, don't travel, don't drink milk, and don't eat hot pot
Of course, at this time, there is a new way to be bearish, which is said to be a consumption downgrade -
Simply put the entire consumption on death row. In particular, the comprehensive rise of Pinduoduo, whose stock price surpassed that of Alibaba and crushed JD.com, seems to provide an extremely powerful example.
It's easy to refute this. Pinduoduo's European and American version of Tume is crazy in Europe and the United States. **Volume has long dominated the top three**, and by next year, Tume's U.S. sales will enter the U.S. TOP3, second only to Amazon and Wal-Mart. And to do this, Pinduoduo actually only took a year.
The super low price of tume is its main feature, and the ** of a hairpin is only 1 10 or even 1 20 on the Amazon platform. That's why its advertising slogan in the Super Bowl (the equivalent of the American Spring Festival Gala) is very straightforward and violent: go shopping like a millionaire.
With the rise speed and low price characteristics of tume, can we think that American consumption has been greatly downgraded, and even deduce the old American pill?
In short, the evidence is not standing. Many times, a phenomenon does not mean anything, and there is no need to over-interpret it.
It can only be said thatAt the moment of economic momentum transformation, in today's real estate, an important engine, consumption data is indeed very average. This is normal, but it is far from a consumption downgrade .
As Huang Zheng said, the consumption upgrade is not to let Shanghainese live the life of Parisians, but to let people in Anqing, Anhui Province have kitchen paper and good fruits to eat. From this point of view, consumption outside the Fifth Ring Road continues to escalate.
3 Today, unimaginable!
Finally, let's talk about consumption, especially valuation.
A very important reason why liquor has fallen a lot this year is that it fell less last year. In 2022, other sectors will generally fall by 20% to 30%, but only liquor will only fall by 12%.
To put it bluntly, many companies were undervalued last year, but consumer stocks such as liquor are still in a relatively reasonable position, and good companies have not fallen out of the good **. These have all been written before.
Now, with the gradual progress of making up for the decline, I think the cost-effectiveness of consumption has begun to appear.
Like beer and milk, the price-to-earnings ratio of PE has basically fallen to the level of 15 to 20 times. The dividend yield of Tsing Beer, A-share Heavy Beer and Yili in Hong Kong stocks has reached 4%.
Like Shuanghui, it is slightly affected by the pig cycle, but the overall performance does not fluctuate much, and the annual non-net profit remains above 5 billion. The key is to pay dividends every year, and the profits are almost fully shared, and 8 billion has been raised since the listing, but 54 billion in cash dividends. What is the dividend yield now?6.8%。
There is also Haidilao. In the first two years, relying on the economic chaos to open a store, it once lost money, but with the economic downturn, it began to shrink the front and improve the quality of profits. This year, profits and cash flow have reached an all-time high, with a price-to-earnings ratio of only 18 times.
In 2021, when the economy is particularly good and consumption is particularly hot, do you dare to imagine the above things?
I didn't dare to think about it at all. At that time, almost only banks could achieve a dividend yield of 4%, and they had to be the big five banks. After all, the dividend yield of China Merchants Bank at that time was only 2%.
All kinds of consumer stocks rely on the so-called "long slope and thick snow" concept to rise to the sky, and the price-earnings ratio is often tens or even hundreds of times larger. Haidilao's price-to-earnings ratio of 800 times and price-to-book ratio of 44 times in 2021 are still unlimited, and various tricky angles prove its reasonableness.
I have to say,A lot of recognized good companies, a lot of companies that used to think that there would be no good **, have really come to the cheap **. Regardless of whether there will be cheaper after being cheaper, but at this time, they stepped on it hard, saying that it was all garbage, the economy was not good, and there was no future. This kind of behavior, at least I don't understand.
Many value investing gurus have published books, from Munger to Howard Marks to García Parames.
When to take a heavy position, there is often one item in their checklist, that is, when the macroeconomic trough is low. At this time,The economy may be at a loss, but it is often low, and the opportunities are becoming more certain.
Of course, if you think I'm wrong, you're right.
Finally, the next grid refers to 233。Opportunity S+. I hope you will like and support more!