U.S. GDP may decline slowly!Pausing interest rate hikes, U.S. bonds may become the biggest risk?

Mondo Finance Updated on 2024-01-30

The latest data showed that US GDP growth in the third quarter was revised up to 52%, however, the Atlanta Fed** expects growth in the fourth quarter to be only 12%。This kind of violent fluctuation is not helpingLenovoto the details and balance in cooking. The delicate management of market expectations is like a seasoning, with too much or too little to affectEconomyof "taste". Too high growth expectations can lead to over-optimism and imperative investment and consumption, while too low expectations can lead to a contraction in investment and consumption, which can drag them downEconomic growth

In addition, the current interest rate hike policy in the United States also needs to be watched. At this stage, a pause in rate hikes could raise potential risks. An abrupt halt in rate hikes could be interpreted by the market as a sign of policymakersEconomyuncertainty or pessimism about the outlook, which in turn leads investors to be biased about the long termTreasury bondsdemand increases, pushing up in the long termTreasury bonds**, lower interest rates. However, this rate decline is not based on:EconomyFundamentals, but based on the fear of future instability, may become newEconomyInstability.

GloballyEconomyAgainst the backdrop of heightened uncertainty, investors often seek safe assets andU.S. TreasuriesIt has always been seen as a safe haven. This demand, in turn, has supported the U.S. Treasury bonds, thus maintaining market stability in the short term. However, in such a situation, we need to think about whether US bonds will be the next risk point. When globalEconomyIn times of turmoil, investors buying U.S. Treasuries on a large scale can cause them to rise too highUnited States**'s debt burden has increased. In addition, globalEconomyWeakness could also lead other countries to reduce their exposure to the United StatesTreasury bondsthe demand for bonds, which in turn has an impact on U.S. Treasuries** and the United StatesEconomyCauses stress.

In the context of globalization, the importance of international affairs cannot be ignored. International** for the United StatesEconomic growthThe impact is crucial. This is despite the fact that the United States is the largest in the worldEconomybody, but itsEconomic growthHighly dependent**. The interdependence between the United States and the countries of the world makes it possibleFrictionAnd the uncertainty brought by the ** war to the United StatesEconomyThere was a serious impact. For example, the recent China and the United StatesFrictioncausedTariffsRise andBarriersIncrease, to the United StatesEconomyCaused a lot of stress.

However, it's not just an "external" factor, it's also deeply embedded in the United StatesEconomyInterior. From the chain to jobs, from consumers to corporate earnings, fluctuations will affect the United StatesEconomyWide-ranging impact. United States**Policies need to be carefully considered and weighed** to maximize the protection of domestic industry and employment while avoiding global triggeringEconomyof recession.

United States**EconomyFaced with the challenge of many internal and external factors. Market expectation management, interest rate hike policy, and internationalFrictionimpact, all on the United StatesEconomic growthIt had an important impact. In this delicate cooking process, it is necessary to balance various factors and maintainEconomystable and sustainable growth. However, the above views represent only personal analysis and opinions, and readers can keep correctEconomyKeep an eye on change and make decisions and investments based on your own situation.

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