Will the U.S. economy recession?This is probably the biggest headache for investors since the Fed started raising interest rates.
On the one hand, the classic recession indicator (US Treasury yield inversion) flashed wildly, and the surge in oil prices** and gold prices also pointed to the prospect of a recession, while on the other hand, the US GDP data and labor market remained strong, and with inflation lowering, a soft landing gradually became the widely expected future.
Even institutional investors can't understand it. D**id Neuhauser, chief investment officer at Livermore Partners, said in an interview on MondayThe market is still confused about the future of the US economy, and the signals of different asset movements are diverging from each other, and "someone must be mistaken".
According to D**ID Neuhauser, the current trend of various assets points to the opposite future
"When you look at the oil and ** markets, it shows that a recession is just around the corner. But when you read what analysts, economists think about the US economy, they tell you that a soft landing is coming. ”Brent*** trading on Monday morning ** due in February next year is about 75 per barrel$67, down more than 20% from September's peak of about $97 per barrel.
Spot** has also recently surged from a low of $1,810 in early October and reached an all-time high of $2,100 at the first reading earlier this month.
Both oil prices and gold prices indicate growing fears of a recession.
At the same time, the bond market has continued to decline, with US Treasury yields continuing to decline in recent months, with the yield on the 10-year benchmark US Treasury falling from a high of nearly 5% in October to the current 4235%，A number of high-profile investors, including Bill Ackman, have announced that they have stopped shorting U.S. Treasuries, and the market is eagerly awaiting further confirmation of a soft landing.
Neuhauser added:
"What I'm trying to tell you is that someone got it wrong. It's hard to describe who got it wrong. So, I'm just waiting and watching to determine what is the right path. ”Many investors are hoping for "goldilocks" in the U.S. economy, in which the economy neither overheats nor shrinks too much. But the premise underpinning the soft-landing narrative is that the Fed cuts interest rates.
He also believes that, on the face of it, the U.S. economy is indeed heading for a soft landing.
Recent employment data and inflation data have strengthened hopes that the US will avoid a recession. The number of non-farm payrolls for November released on Friday exceeded expectations, and the inflation data for October also exceeded expectations, with the CPI unchanged from the previous month and up 32%。
Neuhauser added:
"But at the same time, under the surface, you're going to see a lot of cracks. ”U.S. consumer spending is already showing signs of weakness, the global economy is similarly weak, and many countries are still plagued by inflation.
"Will we see the United States start falling off a cliff?Or will we land safely and corporate earnings will be protected from the storm?”Wall Street news, welcome **app to see more.