ATFX Futures Market:The November non-farm payrolls report, released on Friday, showed that 19 new non-farm payrolls were added90,000, much higher than the previous value of 150,000 and the expected value of 180,000, and the unemployment rate also increased from 39% down to 37%, which means that the US macroeconomy has not experienced a significant recession due to high interest rates, but the demand in the labor market is unusually strong. Affected by the beautiful non-farm payrolls data, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 42780%, which means that the bond market has increased the funds betting on the Fed to raise interest rates. Interest rate hike expectations drive the U.S. index **035%, * will fall sharply in the opposite direction25%, the lowest touched in 2010$6 to the week's highest of 21523 calculations, a drop of nearly $150. Yield inversion in the bond market remains: the three-month Treasury yield is 544%, higher than the semi-annual Treasury yield of 54%, which means that between three months and six months, the Fed will likely cut interest rates. Once rate cut expectations re-escalate, it will bottom out.
ATFX diagram.
From a technical point of view, COMEX is in a medium-term bullish trend, but since last week, it has entered the stage after the surge. The MA20 short-term** is still above the MA30 long-term**, which means that the bullish trend is still continuing. The red line running through the recent ** is the pivot line, which has a traction effect on the market price. Last week's continuation** is leading to the increasing traction of the Tropic of Cancer, and once a bottom fractal support structure appears in the future, there is a high probability that the rally will be restarted.
From the perspective of the global macroeconomy, the annual rate of GDP growth in the United States in the third quarter of this year was 3%, rising for four consecutive quarters. The GDP growth rate of the euro area in the third quarter was 0% on an annual basis, lower than the previous value of 06%, and has declined for six consecutive quarters. Japan's GDP grew at an annual rate of 16%, down from 2% in the previous month. On the whole, except for the United States, where the economic outlook is relatively good, the macroeconomies of other countries are facing varying degrees of downward pressure. Even with the OPEC+ production cut plan of 2.2 million barrels per day and the frequent hawkish speeches from Russia, international oil prices are still falling, which means that global demand is sluggish and economic recovery momentum is insufficient. Eastern Europe and the Middle East are facing geopolitical problems, and there is no end to the conflict in the short term, and the turbulent situation will inspire risk aversion. Most of the above factors are bullish, so from the perspective of the medium and long-term cycle, the international gold price will most likely maintain a bullish trend.
ATFX Risk Warning, Disclaimer, Special Statement: The market is risky, and investment should be cautious. The above content is the opinion of the analyst and does not constitute any operational advice. Please do not rely on this report as the sole reference. Analysts' views are subject to change at different times and will be updated without notice.