1. Overall situation
As of December 1, 2023, the shareholding is as follows:
In the near future, a small amount of medical device ETF (listed in the table above), a small amount of Tencent Holdings (not yet listed in the table above, the main purpose is **operation, short-term will**, it is expected to be about 400), not to be mistaken, it should be about 300 Hong Kong dollars, a small amount of China General Internet ETF, with a current income of about 5%, and a small amount of Hang Seng Medical ETF, with a current loss of 5%. The parts not listed are intended to be sold in the short term. All Vanke positions were converted into Vanke H, and the premium rate increased from -40% to -37% at present, a relatively small loss of 3%. The following is the income of the previous period.
Relatively speaking, thanks to about 2% in two months, it is indeed really difficult to make money.
2. The operation of the shareholding company
COFCO Jiakang
3820,000 heads, a total of 40260,000 heads, basically equivalent to 4.1 million heads last year, 15% growth is 4.71 million heads, there is certainly no problem, 20% growth is 4.92 million heads, then the next two months may have to average 450,000 heads, to see if it is possible to reach 5 million heads, the company's slaughter is basically growing as planned, but the big cycle is really difficult to say, pig prices continue to be **, it is expected that this year's fair value adjustment before the basic profit of about 200 million. New Hope in the same industry will raise 7.3 billion yuan
It is said that it is used for debt repayment, equity collection, safety prevention and control, and digital intelligence upgrades, you must know that the total market value of COFCO Jiakang is only 8 billion Hong Kong dollars. It's better to take it all hahaha.
Maybe it's better to predict the wrong pig cycle and supplement the grain and grass.
The company intends to use no more than 100,000 of the proceeds in this offering00,000,000 yuan was used to acquire a minority stake in Shandong New Hope Liuhe Group, a holding subsidiary, and after the completion of this transaction, the company holds 100% equity of Shandong Liuhe.
That is, 926% of the equity is worth 1 billion, and the target company is valued at more than 10 billion... And the overall valuation of New Hope is only 41.4 billion... However, the operating income accounts for nearly 50% of New Hope's overall income, and my personal judgment may be that the actual debt of the previous period may be openThe subsequent acquisition is 500 million, accounting for about 18% of the equity. The valuation is also almost 3 billion.
The counterparty is also a bank-affiliated asset investment company.
Raising funds to repay loans is conducive to reducing interest expenses, saving financial costs, and has a positive effect on reducing the company's financing costs and improving the company's profits.
Remember that all the theories clearly prove that the cost of equity financing is higher than the cost of debt financing.
I can only say that this pig cycle exceeded many people's expectations (including myself, of course).
Vanke
Real estate is the mother of the cycle, and the thick-eyed Vanke is still difficult to say to lift the crisis after looking for the Shenzhen state-owned assets platform, but the first REITs have been approved recently (although the amount is not large, but it is also considered to have opened the path of realizing commercial assets that have been precipitated for many years, and it is estimated that the real estate industry is so sluggish that it has such an approved efficiency), and the announcement CMBS is approved for registration, and it seems that in terms of real estate financing, as long as you are willing, the regulator will fully support it. Sales in November increased year-on-year and month-on-month, with a third-party ** of 31.4 billion yuan, a total of 377 billion yuan for the whole year, and if it can maintain 40 billion yuan in December this year (39.7 billion yuan in December last year), it can basically be the same as last year's 4169 (it is estimated that it should be no problem).
Even in the case of concentration, the concentration of industries still cannot stop the decline of large industries. If you look at the right company, you can't resist the general trend.
The whole business logic of the real estate industry has changed, even if it is a land monopoly in the early stage, but there is no problem with sales at all, all are pre-sales, as long as the house is made, it will be sold out soon, which partially makes up for the disadvantages of supply monopoly, which used to be a passable business model, in the new situation, the monopoly of supply, without much brand effect of sales, has made the industry a relatively poor model, while the inventory has not been delayed for a year, increase a year of interest, and depreciation for one year. Due to the super land supply in the early stage, and at the same time the second-hand housing is expected to decline in the case (the holding cost is much greater than the holding income, interest, depreciation, price reduction), a large number of second-hand houses are listed, even if there is a desire to control the supply of primary land and achieve the purpose of maintaining secondary real estate, but the current large supply is no longer a monopoly of new housing, and there are endless second-hand houses, even if the local financial situation supports, not for land at all, the supply of second-hand housing will be digested for a long time.
At present, the real-time listing of second-hand houses in Wuhan is close to 260,000 units, and according to third-party estimates, the total number of houses that have been acquired in the early stage and have not yet been pre-sold or started is nearly 85.27 million square meters, at least from Wuhan, the stock is enough.
Tencent
Munger died, Kissinger died, Pinduoduo's market value officially surpassed Alibaba, and Toutiao's revenue and profit surpassed Tencent. A new king succeeds the old. So far, Tencent remains solid, with record revenue and profit in the third quarter (if memory serves). It's just that after the king, who couldn't find his opponent with a telescope, was inadvertently picked off the horse with a shot, I don't know who is eyeing Tencent in the dark. The Internet is always in danger.
Beijing New Building Materials
The third quarter report has been analyzed, there is no new view, Fushouyuan does not have a third quarter report, and other ETFs simply feel undervalued**.
Recently, I watched Mindray Medical, re-watched Xiaomi, watched CATL, watched LONGi, and also watched liquor, to be honest, the longer I have been in this market, the fewer companies can understand, and the more I dare not buy.
There is only one month left in 2023, and I hope to lose less.