[**Analysis and Interpretation] 202
As of noon, on the whole, the three major indexes collectively opened low in early trading, and then showed a narrow range** trend, with more and less ups and downs in the two cities, with a half-day turnover of nearly 500 billion and a net inflow of northbound funds of more than 3 billion.
Recently, I saw two interesting but somewhat contradictory news. On the one hand, CCXI issued an announcement maintaining China's sovereign credit rating at AA+G with a stable outlookOn the other hand, Moody's Ratings issued a report that did not change China's sovereign credit rating, but revised the outlook from stable to negative.
From these two news, we can see that the market's views on China's economy are divided, but in any case, as an ordinary investor, I personally believe that at least until next spring, we should still be cautiously optimistic, because in the past period of time, a series of economic stimulus policies have been introduced, all of which indicate that the above wants to rush at the end of the year and give a good start to next year, but at the same time, we cannot ignore Moody's negative outlook, which may mean some potential risks, if next spring** And the economy has not yet felt a significant change, so we have to consider changing paths.
In this context, investors need to pay more attention to risk management, not too aggressive, perhaps consider some stable portfolios, focus on some relatively stable industries, or, can also focus on some areas with greater support.
In addition, there are many markets in the near future, and some high-quality targets may have some low valuations, so you can consider absorbing some potential sectors on dips, and there may be good returns in the long run. Of course, it is also necessary to pay attention to diversification and avoid concentrating too much risk in a certain sector.
From the plate, new energy vehicles, batteries, new energySectors led the rally todayBig technology, traditional Chinese medicine, computersSectors led the decline today.
From a financial point of view, steel, agriculture, anime gamesNet inflow of main forcesHigh-end manufacturing, big technology, smart homeNet outflow of main forces.
Looking at it exponentially, CS rare metals, industrial metals, new energy batteriesThe daily gains were among the highest；Critical Telecommunications, CSI Traditional Chinese Medicine, and CNI CommunicationsThe daily gains were the least.
[Technical].
Let's take the SSE Composite Index as an example:
Weekly chart (weekly update):5 weeks**Death fork 10 weeks**;The MACD indicator is dead, the green bar is shortened, and the indicator line is running below the 0 axisThe golden cross of the KDJ indicator spreads upward, and the J value is passivated at the top;The Boll channel opening spreads, and the stock index runs above the lower band.
Analysis:In the medium term, the index walked out of the long lower shadow line last week and stood on the 5-week **, but last week it walked out of the long upper shadow line and was suppressed by the 10-week **, indicating that the probability of the index in this range is relatively large, but these two ** are downward trends, so the index is still a little more likely to decline in the medium term.
Daily chart (daily update):On the 5th, 10th, and 20th, ** died respectively;The MACD indicator is dead, the green bar is expanding, and the indicator line is running near the 0 axis;The KDJ indicator is dead fork downward, and the J value bottoms out;The Boll channel opening spreads, and the stock index runs near the lower band.
Analysis:In the short term, the index not only fell below the support of the 5th, but other technical indicators also opened a downward channel, but the magic nine turns have appeared 9, and there may be an overfall, but the follow-up index wants to **, it may be more difficult.
[Fundamentals & News].
Shenzhen issued an action plan for the high-quality development of computing infrastructure, and the computing power industry ushered in continuous catalysis. (Hashrate).
According to the data, by 2025, the R&D investment intensity of textile enterprises above designated size will reach 13%, 70% of textile enterprises above designated size have basically realized digital networking. (Textile).
The Ministry of Transport (MOT) has issued the Guidelines for Transportation Safety Services for Autonomous Vehicles (Trial) to guide the development of autonomous driving technology. (Autonomous driving).
The 2023 World New Energy Vehicle Conference will be held soon. (New Energy Vehicles).
The Ministry of Finance said that China's economy has great resilience and potential, and the long-term positive fundamentals have not changed, and it will remain an important engine of global economic growth in the future. (Economic).
In November, Caixin's services PMI was 515, up 11 percentage point;Caixin's composite PMI was 516, up 3 from the previous month2 percentage points, both hitting a new high in the past three months. （pmi）
[Valuation Surface].
Shanghai Composite Index: P/E ratio of 1257, underestimated;
Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index: P/E ratio of 2110. Undervaluation;
GEM refers to: P/E ratio 2744, undervaluation;
Science and Technology Innovation 50: P/E ratio of 4367, normal valuation;
CSI 300: P/E ratio of 1082, underestimated;
SSE 50: P/E ratio 953, undervaluation;
CSI 500: P/E ratio 2215. Undervaluation.
[Plate Analysis].
BondsRecently, the ** market has shown some bright signs, and the new ** issuance market has shown signs of recovery in November. According to the statistics of wind data, 136 new ** were added in November, and the total issuance share reached 13109.7 billion copies, which not only returned to the 100 billion level, but also hit a new high since April this year.
Interestingly, among these new **, bond ** accounts for the vast majority, and the issuance scale is more than eighty percent, in addition, there are some bond ** at the end of the month to end the fundraising ahead of schedule. Behind this phenomenon, it is related to the unsatisfactory performance of the equity market this year, the performance of equity assets is relatively weak, and the performance of the bond base is quite bright.
From an investor perspective, market funds seem to be more inclined to seek safe and safe haven options, with new and existing bonds** attracting more funds due to lower overall market risk appetite. In this context, the bond base has become a safe haven in the eyes of investors, and its relatively stable income and relatively low risk characteristics are more in line with the current market investment trend.
For investors, they should look at market trends rationally, especially the downturn in the equity market. In the current economic environment, bonds**, as a relatively safe asset allocation, provide a more reliable and stable income for portfolios. However, investments are not set in stone and need to be reasonably allocated according to personal risk tolerance and investment goals.
When choosing a bond type**, investors can pay attention to those products with rich management experience and stable performance**, and pay attention to the characteristics and risks of various types of bonds. Diversification, not just investing in a certain type of debt base, to further reduce the risk of the overall portfolio.
Daily review
Disclaimer: The content of the article is a record and self-retention of the author's personal subjective trading ideas, and the analysis of the indices and ** involved does not constitute any investment and application advice.