Hawking s prophecy or come true?Scientist The Earth may be at five catastrophic ecological tipping

Mondo Science Updated on 2024-01-29

Although nearly 200 countries and regions have pledged to reduce carbon emissions and achieve the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 15, or at least 2, but studies have shown that it is still difficult to achieve this goal.

On 8 December, the UK's National Weather Service** said that by 2024, the average global surface temperature could be 15, the probability may reach 27%. However, this situation does not mean that the 2015 Paris Agreement has been violated, as it may temporarily exceed 15℃。And if the temperature rises by more than 15, that first rise of more than 1The year of 5 is sure to be a landmark event in climate history. Therefore, many people are now starting to pay attention to whether the temperature in 2024 will be like the National Weather Service in the United Kingdom.

It is actually normal for scientists to have such a **, because in recent years, the earth's temperature has continued to set records, and this year, compared to before the industrial revolution, the average temperature increase from January to October is close to 14, while the temperature on November 17 was even 2 above the pre-industrial level07, this is the first time on record that the average temperature increase exceeded 2, and on November 18, the global average temperature increase level also exceeded 2, reaching 206 or so.

A previous study published in the journal Science suggests that under the current global warming scenario, the Earth may be on the verge of crossing 5 of the 16 known tipping points, as global temperatures rise closer to 15. Another 5 critical points may also be breached.

Johan Rockstr M, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Studies and co-chair of the Earth Council, said that global temperature rise is approaching 2-3 levels, and the planet may be on a path to cross multiple dangerous tipping points, and in order to protect humanity, we must take all possible measures to avoid them.

Earlier this month, climate scientists and representatives from nearly 200 countries and regions around the world attended the UN Climate Summit. On December 6, the Tipping Point Report, jointly issued by experts from more than 90 international agencies, was released, which identified five "tipping points" for the Earth's ecosystems. Let her if the average temperature of the earth rises by more than 15, then by the 2030s, there may be 3 more "tipping points" to come.

The five tipping points that the planet is facing today are the demise of the Greenland ice sheet, the total collapse of the Antarctic ice shelf, the widespread melting of permafrost, the death of coral reefs in warm waters, and the collapse of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation. If these five tipping points are breached, the crisis brought about by climate change is likely to multiply, and the planet may face "ecological collapse".

Seeing that the earth's temperature has been rising in recent years, coupled with the "Tipping Point Report" issued by the United Nations at the beginning of this month, the earth is facing many tipping points, and there may be many tipping points in the future.

Previously, the famous scientist Stephen Hawking has put forward many predictions, one of which involves the current problem facing our earth, that is, the problem of climate warming. Hawking said that with the rapid development of human society, we will consume more and more energy in the future, including some fossil fuels. In the process of consuming fossil fuels, a large amount of greenhouse gases are produced, and these greenhouse gases are emitted into the atmosphere, causing the earth to become hotter, and the earth may become a "fireball" by 2600.

Of course, although Hawking's prediction mentions that the earth may become a "fireball" in 2600 years, it is only a prediction made by him based on the warming of the earth's climate, not that the earth will really no longer be habitable by 2600.

Although there is no evidence that Hawking's prophecy will come true, and there is no need to worry, we still need to pay attention to the prophecy he mentioned. Because many studies have shown that the temperature on the earth is indeed higher than before the Industrial Revolution. There are many factors that contribute to the rise in temperatures, such as the fact that El Niño has now occurred and is expected to continue until the beginning of next year, which will also lead to an increase in temperatures. In addition to this, carbon emissions are also the main reason for the rise in temperatures. In other words, the earth is so hot right now that we humans need to bear a considerable part of the responsibility.

Whether it is from the perspective of responsibility or from the purpose of protecting the earth's homeland, it is very important and urgent to alleviate the trend of climate warming. Earlier this month, the United Nations convened the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) to discuss how to limit global warming to 15℃。

In fact, many countries are taking measures to deal with the problem of climate warming, and in this regard, our country's achievements can be said to be remarkable and have achieved great results. At the General Debate of the 75th Session of the United Nations General Assembly on 22 September 2020, we announced that we will take stronger measures and policies to reduce emissions, and strive to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.

Although many countries have expressed their commitment to achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality, we will achieve the world's highest reduction in carbon emission intensity, and it will take the shortest time in the world's history to achieve the transition from carbon peak to carbon neutrality. You must know that the process from carbon peak to carbon neutrality in those developed countries takes a long time, generally more than 40 years, and even some countries take almost 70 years, while our process from carbon peak to carbon neutrality only takes about 30 years. This also shows that we are a responsible major country and take the initiative to take responsibility.

In order to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality, we have also taken a lot of measures in recent years. For example, we have vigorously developed clean energy and built the world's largest clean power generation system, with the country's installed renewable energy capacity exceeding 1.3 billion kilowatts as of the first half of this year. We are investing heavily in renewable energy, which makes a significant contribution to reducing emissions around the world.

More than half of the world's new energy vehicles are in China, the number of new energy vehicles exceeds 16.2 million, and the output of our new energy vehicles from the 10 million to more than 20 million took only 17 months.

In addition to reducing carbon emissions at the source, we are also actively taking measures to improve the "carbon sink" capacity of ecosystems, that is, to build forest "carbon pools". Over the years, we have actively carried out afforestation activities, and the forest coverage rate has reached 2402%, by 2025, China's forest coverage rate will reach 241%。

All these measures we have taken are effective and can slow down the trend of climate warming. However, since climate warming is a global problem, it does not mean that a single country can completely solve this problem, and there is no "safe zone" for global warming, and only by working together can the world achieve the most ideal results.

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