On April 25, 2020, China's total holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds reached a staggering 11.3 trillion US dollars, but after that, my country began to ** US debt.
According to data from September this yearChina now holds only $778.1 billion in U.S. bonds, and in just three years, China's U.S. bonds are nearly $360 billion.
In addition to China's large number of U.S. bonds, Japan, the United Kingdom and other countries are vying to follow suit, and some data show that there are now 27 U.S. bonds.
Incredibly, at a time when countries are scrambling for U.S. debt,A mysterious force was born, buying US bonds on a large scale, directly sweeping away 75% of the US debt share!
Who is this mysterious force?
In fact, as early as 50 years ago, there was a spectacular sell-off of U.S. bonds, which made many financial elites on Wall Street fearful!
However, it was still spent by the United States without dangerToday, U.S. Treasury bonds are considered one of the safest assets in the world.
I believe that many people think that U.S. debt is a bargaining chip, but it is not.
In addition, there are many people who believe that China's dumping of US bonds is a game between China and the United States.
According to the analysis of financial bloggers, the reason why China has a large number of US bonds is because of its distrust of the US economic recovery, in addition to meeting the needs of China's development.
In May this year, in addition to China, the United States' good brothers Japan and the United Kingdom are also in the United StatesAmong them, Japan sold 30.4 billion in May, and the United Kingdom sold 14.1 billion.
Although they did not agree on it in advance, the common reason for their sell-off was concern about the prospects for the US economic recovery.
U.S. energy deployment data shows that electricity consumption in the U.S. fell by 4 percent overall in the first quarter of this year4%, of which the electricity consumption of residents fell by 81%, and the commercial sector fell by 14 percent, while the industrial sector fell by 2 percent3%。
Over the same period, China's overall electricity consumption was twice that of the United StatesIndustrial electricity consumption is five times that of the United States, although the residential and service industries are almost the same as those in the United States.
But this also proves the fact from the side, that is, the current world factory is still in China, and there is no return as the United States hopes.
Fears that the U.S. economy has entered a recession are the core reasons for the U.S. bonds of major countries, including China.
The second is the change in foreign exchange reserve investment brought about by China's diversification, and the total deployment data of the customs shows that in the first half of this year, the United States fell from our first largest partner to the third.
The top two countries in China's foreign trade list are ASEAN and the European Union, in addition to Russia, the share of the Middle East is also rising rapidly.
* The change of diversification has also made China's foreign exchange reserves diversified, which has directly led to the continuous weakening of the demand for U.S. bonds, which is one of the reasons for China's large ** U.S. Treasury bonds.
There are other reasons for China to sell US bondsAs we all know, Silicon Valley Bank occupies a pivotal position in the United States, and Silicon Valley Bank in the United States is equivalent to the status of China Guangfa Bank and Bank of Beijing in China.
It can be seen that the position of Silicon Valley Bank in the United States is that such a bank has failed in the United States, although its failure has a certain impact on the American economy, it also reflects the existence of very serious problems and risks in the financial industry in the United States.
In addition, the U.S. debt crisis continues to expand, and relevant data show that the U.S. debt has exceeded the 300,000 mark, which completely exceeds the maximum carrying capacity of the U.S. economy.
In the event of a collapse in the United States, China's overseas assets may "disappear completely".
Affected by the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Western countries, led by the United States, temporarily abandoned the principle of "inviolability of private property" because they forcibly confiscated Russia's overseas assets.
In addition, the United States has repeatedly wanted to take action against Chinese enterprises and interfere in the development of Chinese enterprises, so China's first-class U.S. bonds are also a way to reasonably avoid risks.
In order to contain China's rise, the United States has continuously introduced policies aimed at, and China's U.S. debt is also one of China's countermeasuresIt also allowed the United States to see China's determination to defend itself and fight back, and severely thwarted the United States' sharp spirit.
The U.S. debt problem is now far beyond what the U.S. federal government can afford.
So can China's U.S. bonds affect the United States?
According to relevant data, the size of the US national debt has soared from $10 trillion in 2008 to $32 trillion today.
China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds are only 0At $85 trillion, China's holdings account for only 2 percent of the total U.S. debt in the face of inflated debt6%, in other words, even if China's clearance **, it will not have any substantial impact on the United States.
However, from some perspectives, China's large number of U.S. bonds may hit the world's confidence in holding U.S. bonds and may shake the status of the U.S. dollar as an international currency.
After all, whether it is the deep water area of the great power game or the world's second largest economy is not optimistic about the world's first economy, its influence far exceeds that of the IMF and the World Bank, and the development of the US economy.
Otherwise, why would Kissinger, who is 100 years old, make a hurried business trip to China across the Pacific Ocean to seek new diplomatic mediation?
With the rapid development of the motherland, China occupies a pivotal position both militarily and economically, and some countries regard China as a reference.
Some countries have cited China's choice as a reference.
Just when many countries were surging US bonds, a large number of "receivers" of US bonds suddenly poured out to buy US bonds.
They are residents of the United States, and some data show that the personal investment of American residents has directly increased the holdings of U.S. bonds by 17 trillion, accounting for an astonishing 75%.
In June this year, Biden and Kevin McCarthy, then Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, finally reached a proposal for a federal limit after several rounds of negotiations and exchanges.
The proposal successfully avoided a catastrophic default by the United States, but the $4 trillion quota has already been consumed in less than half a year6 trillion dollars.
1 leftWill the $4 trillion quota survive 2024?Economists in the United States do not dare to give a definite answer to this question.
And the main culprit of the current predicament of the United States is the United States itself, after the end of World War II.
The United States began to take advantage of the hegemony of the dollar to "borrow" money from other countries around the world to meet its own increasing spendingIt took only 70 years for the United States to go from $300 billion to $30 trillion today, and some economists believe that the scale of the tax cuts during the Reagan era led to a surge in the US national debt.
The Bush ** period experienced two conventional local warsThe global economic crisis in 2008 directly caused the total amount of US Treasury bonds to grow at a record high, resulting in the US Treasury bonds remaining low.
In the case of Wall Street issuers, the U.S. can continue to issue U.S. bonds to sustain domestic spending.
The Founder dollar is now in a hegemonic state, and as long as the dollar does not collapse, the U.S. bond market will always be stable.
But the reality is not as rosy as they imagined, and now many countries around the world are accelerating the process of de-dollarization.
It is worth noting that countries around the world are now trying to use their own currencies for calculations when conducting **, so as to get rid of their dependence on the US dollar.
This also indirectly proves that the confidence of the countries in the world that the United States can repay its debts on time is weakening, and this also reflects that the United States has now seen a crisis in its position in the international community.
The American people can only temporarily alleviate the crisis of the US debt, but they cannot solve the US debt problem in the long run.
If the United States cannot implement any forward-looking plans on its own, it will be difficult to get out of its current predicament.
Unlike the United States, with the rapid development of China in recent years, it occupies an increasingly important position in the world, and now many countries are "looking forward to" China!
I wish our motherland better and better!