On Monday, the three major indexes collectively closed down, and the two cities as a whole fell more and rose less, with a total of more than 2,700 **. Concept sectors such as jewelry, AIGC, and Internet celebrity economy rose highly, while pharmaceutical concepts such as CRO, medical services, and innovative drugs collectively plummeted. Northbound funds rose in the afternoon, with a net sale of 14 throughout the day4.1 billion yuan.
At the macro level, domestic demand and export prosperity both shrank, the PMI data in November fell further, the improvement and repair of economic activities showed signs of slowing down, and the economic fundamentals still need to be consolidated. However, the weak economy has also opened up the imagination space for strong policy, and the December ** economic work conference meeting is expected to have a more positive statement, with the decline in inflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve is approaching the time to cut interest rates, and the fiscal and monetary policy governance space is also opening, and it is expected that there will be more intensive policy measures to improve pessimistic economic expectations.
The logic of this article. 1. Investment outlook.
2. Recent market review.
Third, the trend of market funds.
Fourth, the market temperature.
1. Investment logic.
Strategy Forward: Narrow bands are hard to break, and new variables are needed to maintain. Recently, overseas pressure has eased, with the weakening of U.S. CPI, PMI, and non-farm payrolls data, the Federal Reserve's stance has begun to turn to **, and the U.S. bond interest rate and the U.S. dollar index have fallen sharply to drive the RMB exchange rate**, and northbound funds have been around the country for 4 consecutive years. However, some macro data show that there is still great uncertainty in the domestic economic recovery, which has suppressed market sentiment to a certain extent in the short term, making it difficult for the market to continue to rise. With the December economic conference approaching, the main contradiction of the market is switched to domestic policy stimulus expectations, and the follow-up is likely to be "buy expectations and sell cash", and the most important point is the policy guidance given by the important meeting. Judging from the previous financial work conference and the statement of the regulatory authorities, the meeting is likely to continue to focus on the two major risks of real estate and local debt, alleviate market concerns, and there is a high probability that fiscal policy and monetary policy will also have a more positive statement, so as to form a catalyst for the recovery of A-shares, and can focus on big finance, technology, medicine and other sectors, taking into account the winning rate and odds.
From a technical point of view: Recently, the Shanghai Composite Index has maintained a weak** pattern, which has always been suppressed by the 5-day ** and has been moving lower along the 5-day **, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index are generally similar. The turnover of the two cities has always remained around 800 billion, and the volume and energy have never been boosted. Judging from the daily MACD indicator, the three major indices have all appeared dead forks, the green column is still amplifying, and the momentum has not yet reversed. In order to return to the ** structure in the future, it is also necessary for the index to stand firm for 5 days**, and further increase the volume to confirm, so as to rebuild confidence and gather popularity.
Market direction: Recently, the spot market continues to refresh the record high, and the end of the year is the peak period for marriage, and consumer demand is expected to increase significantlyRedmi, Meizu, Honor and other manufacturers released their annual flagships, and the "Double 12" shopping festival is approaching againHuawei has been very successful, plans to set up Huawei car BU, has issued invitations to Celis, Chery, JAC, BAIC to invest in new companies, and hopes that China FAW will join. Specifically, three lines are recommended:
1) Approaching the peak sales season, the jewelry industry chain is expected to drive enterprises to actively improve: With the weakening of the US CPI and non-farm payrolls data, the market has begun to reprice the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, and the decline in the US Treasury interest rate and the US dollar index has driven *** sharply**. The end of the year and the beginning of the year are the peak period for marriage, driven by the psychology of "selling up and not buying down", the investment and consumer demand are expected to continue to increase, and the production and sales are booming, supporting the performance of related companies to improve, and the stock price.
2) The smartphone industry chain of leading manufacturers releasing new phones and approaching the peak sales season again: Recently, manufacturers such as Redmi, Meizu, and Honor have successively released annual flagship models, and the positioning of the above manufacturers is mainly concentrated in the mid-range models in the 2000-3000** range, and the volume advantage cannot be underestimated. Judging from the sales volume of Huawei, Xiaomi, and Apple, consumer demand for replacement is relatively strong, and with the Double 12 approaching again, the corresponding models are expected to achieve good sales results.
3) Accelerating the integration of the industrial chain, and the performance of the intelligent driving and new energy vehicle industry chain is expected to increase rapidly: Huawei officially released the HarmonyOS Intelligent Vehicle Technology Ecological Alliance, HarmonyOS Zhixing, and issued invitations to Celis, Chery, JAC, and BAIC to invest in new companies, and hopes that China FAW will join. As a leading player in the field of intelligent driving in China, Huawei's move is expected to further accelerate the integration of the intelligent driving and new energy vehicle industry chains, promote the increase of market concentration, enhance the comparative advantages of related enterprises in the stock game, and promote the company's performance to maintain high growth.
2. Recent market review.
a) a**field.
Last week, the volume of A-shares continued to shrink, and the overall remained at around 800 billion. The Beijing Stock Exchange has been sharply killed, and the previous hot ** has decreased sharply, and from the perspective of market style, the growth performance is better than the value, and the science and technology 50 is 0The 32% increase ranked first, and the GEM index did not fall much. The small-cap outperformed the mid-cap, and the CNI 2000 also came in at 0The 28% gain became one of the few sectors to close in the red, and ** stocks performed the worst, with the CSI 300 and the SSE 50 each -156%、-1.A 63% drop was the last.
In terms of sectors, the 13 primary sectors performed well that week, unchanged from the previous week, so the money-making effect was poor. The top gainers are concentrated in coal, social services, media and other fields. It is mainly due to the strong demand in winter, the increase in stable growth expectations, and the over-falling back-up in the early stage. The largest declines included real estate, beauty care, building materials, etc. A few sectors performed better than the previous week, with 12 sectors continuing to rise or narrowing their declines. Overall, the week was poor.
b) ** market.
Last week, the major ** indices performed poorly. Currency ** is 004% of the increase ranked first, and the rest of the **indexes across the board**. The performance of U.S. stocks was average, Hong Kong stocks fell sharply, the RMB exchange rate remained **, and the QDII type ** suffered a double kill of stocks and foreign exchange at -1The 07% decline was the worst. Due to the influence of the equity market, important indices such as ** type and mixed type are also basically across the board. The bond market performed poorly, and the bond** also fell slightly by 007%。
Last week, the yield center was relatively consistent with the index, with the commodity type performing the best, with 1The 16% increase ranked first, and it also rose sharply by 2 from the previous week40pct, mainly because of *** lasting**. Currency and bond types also closed slightly in the red, and the rest of the ** weekly yields were basically all lowered. From the point of view of the annual return center, the QDII type ** has sharply given up the gains since the beginning of this year, falling by 2 in the week99pct, **type, mixed** is also continuing**. The rest of the types** have been slightly fixed, but not by much.
3. A-share and ** market capital trends.
a) a**field.
The main funds had a net inflow for the week. From the perspective of Shenwan's primary industry, there were 22 inflow industries, with a net inflow of 51 billion yuan in the past week, an increase of about 12.7 billion yuan from the previous week. Among them, the net inflow of pharmaceutical biology exceeded 11 billion yuan, the net flow of automobiles exceeded 9 billion yuan, and the net inflow of media, electronics and computers exceeded 7 billion yuanIn terms of net outflow, the net outflow of real estate exceeded 2.5 billion yuan, and the net outflow of non-bank financial and banking exceeded 1.5 billion yuan.
Northbound funds were net **16 for the week0.8 billion yuan, which turned into net ** again after 3 weeks. The net inflow of major integrated circuits, chips, medical devices, etc. exceeded 2.5 billion yuan, and the net outflow of e-commerce and big data exceeded 2.5 billion yuan. Haiguang Information, United Imaging Medical, Inovance Technology, Celis, Kweichow Moutai, Changan Automobile, WuXi AppTec, MGI, etc. ranked among the top in net purchases.
Southbound funds were net **34 for the weekHK$8.7 billion, which turned net again after 2 weeks. Among them, Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect net **33HK$3.5 billion, Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect net**1HK$5.2 billion. Xpeng Motors, Leapmotor, SMIC, CNOOC, Akeso, etc. ranked among the top net buyers.
b) ** market.
Last week, 75 companies were open for subscription, involving 36 ** companies such as Bosera, GF, Huaxia, E Fund, Bank, and Ping An. a total of 53.7 billion yuan, an increase of about 27.8 billion yuan. Weekly subscription** includes 15 active equity, index, bond, fixed income+, money market, FOF, QDII**. On the whole, the number of establishments, the number of subscriptions and the amount have increased significantly during the market downturn.
Fourth, the market temperature.
Judging from the quantile values in the past 5 years, the valuations of the six major indices last week were all ** except for the Science and Technology Innovation 50. The valuation quantile of the SSE 50 is significantly **799pct, falling back to the 30% quantile again, and the valuation quantile of the rest of the indices fell by about 2% on average. The growth style is relatively more resistant, and the science and technology 50 is slightly **178pct, the GEM value also showed good resilience, only a small **016pct。On the whole, the current price-performance ratio of A-shares has rebounded again, which can be slowly measured.
From the perspective of the quantile value of the sector since its listing, as of December 4**, only 15 sectors have revised their valuations upward, and the valuation quantile has risen by 019pct。Computer valuations recovered the most, +470pct, mainly boosted by the news and over-falling in the early stage;Media, social services, coal and other industries also rose well. The median valuation of the sector is textile and apparel (20.).86%), the median value continued to fall, indicating that the divergence between industry sectors has intensified.
From the perspective of the price performance of 3-year stocks and bonds, as of December 4, the reciprocal price-earnings ratio of Wind All A is the same as that of 10-year treasury bonds (2.69%)19, +001, while the historical average is 19. It is at a neutral high level in the past 3 years, and the historical quantile value is at 8762% (i.e. better value for money than 87.)62% of the time), +181pct。The historical quantile values of the CSI 800, CSI 300, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are at 97 respectively78% (+555 pct.66% (+3. QoQ.)02pct.17% (+1. QoQ.)95 pct) and 3213% (-028pct）。Compared with the previous period, the overall cost performance of small ticket investment fell slightly, the attractiveness of micro-cap stocks remained in the low range, and the attractiveness of medium and large tickets came to the high range againThe probability of profitability is 100% for 3 yearsThe 10Y Treasury rate was -134bp。
Note: The market is risky, and investment should be cautious. In any case, the information or opinions expressed in this subscription account are only an exchange of views and do not constitute investment advice to any person. Unless otherwise noted, the research data in this article is supported by Straight Flush iFind].
This article was originally written by "Xingtu Financial Research Institute", and the author is Wu Zewei, a researcher at Xingtu Financial Research Institute.