According to North Korea's judgment, 2024 could become the year of the outbreak of the North-South conflict. This judgment is mainly due to the actions of the South Korean side and the posture of the United States. South Korea conducted a series of military exercises in late 2023, including special forces winter training, army artillery firing and maneuver training, navy artillery firing and maritime maneuver training, aiming to verify its ability to cooperate with the U.S. military. South Korea's ** Yoon Suk-yeol ordered when inspecting the South Korean Army's Fifth Infantry Division that "if you are provoked, you can retaliate first and then report it." Such statements and military actions have raised concerns in North Korea, as such an order could become a trigger in the event of a conflict.
In addition, North Korea is aware of the presence of the United States behind it. With the gradual easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, it is possible that the United States will shift its attention to the Korean Peninsula. The United States has been deploying a large number of nuclear submarines, aircraft carriers, and strategic bombers on the Korean Peninsula, which shows its concern for North Korea. Moreover, the actions of the United States can also be interpreted as the protection of its Asia-Pacific allies and the suppression of China. If a conflict breaks out between the North and the South, it will bring huge trouble to China, which will not only slow down China's development, but also put pressure on China's situation in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and other places. This is in line with the interests of the United States to maintain its hegemonic position and will help Biden gain an electoral advantage.
North Korea's judgment of the U.S. to free up its hands is mainly based on two reasons: the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
First of all, North Korea observed that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been going on for almost two years, and judging by the situation on the battlefield, it is impossible for Ukraine to defeat Russia. The more the Ukrainian side drags on, the more the United States gets bogged down. Now, the US side has lost patience and is seeking a solution to end the conflict. It is rumored that the White House has sent a similar message to the Kremlin, which means that the Russia-Ukraine conflict may be coming to an end. In this way, the United States will be able to concentrate more on problems in other regions, including the Korean Peninsula.
Second, the easing of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict also provides an opportunity for the United States to quickly free up its hands. The United States withdrew the aircraft carrier USS Ford from the region, while Israel announced the withdrawal of its troops from the Gaza Strip. Israel's move has reduced tensions in the Middle East and allowed the United States to consider a gradual withdrawal from the region. In this way, the United States will turn its attention to the Korean Peninsula, which has been one of the regions with the most U.S. nuclear deployments over the past year. This shows that the United States has always maintained a high level of interest in the movements on the Korean Peninsula and is unlikely to remain indifferent.
To sum up, North Korea's judgment that the United States is quickly freeing up its hands is well-founded, and China also needs to be vigilant.
If a North-South conflict breaks out, it will bring enormous pressure and uncertainty to China. China is already facing issues such as the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, and if the situation on the Korean Peninsula deteriorates further, it may trigger a chain reaction and force China to take more urgent and forceful countermeasures. This will distract China's attention and resources, and it could slow down China's development, which is exactly what the United States wants to see.
For China, the key to dealing with the situation in North Korea is to maintain a high degree of vigilance and flexibility. First, China needs to strengthen communication and cooperation with the DPRK to avoid a conflict between the North and the South as much as possible. At the same time, China should also maintain close ties with key countries such as the Republic of Korea and work together to promote the process of dialogue and reconciliation.
Second, China needs to further strengthen cooperation with other countries to form a consensus on the situation in North Korea and a strong response mechanism. This includes strategic communication and consultation with countries such as Russia and the United States to avoid uncontrollable situations arising from miscalculations or misunderstandings.
Finally, China should actively improve its overall strength and response capabilities, including strengthening its military strength and the use of diplomatic means. Only on the basis of its own strength can China better safeguard its own interests and security.
In short, North Korea judged that a conflict between the North and the South could break out in 2024 and believed that the important factor behind it was the actions and posture of the United States. For China, changes in the situation in the DPRK are crucial to safeguarding its own interests and security, and it needs to maintain a high degree of vigilance, respond flexibly, and strengthen international cooperation to maintain regional peace and stability.