Hello everyone, 2023 is about to pass in a blink of an eye, and when I think back to the beginning of the year, many friends have great expectations for this year, feeling that after the epidemic control is relaxed, this year will be a year of economic recovery, and there may be a round of retaliatory consumption.
In fact, everyone's consumption this year is still relatively cautious.
There are many people who travel during the January and National Day holidays, but the per capita consumption expenditure has not returned to the pre-epidemic level.
In terms of investment, it seems that it is not ideal, and several major broad-based indices of A-shares have generally fallen this year, and the better performance is the micro-cap stock index, which has risen nearly 50% year-to-date.
Overseas markets are booming, with not only traditional U.S. stocks performing strongly, but also Japan** and India** hitting new highs this year.
On the other hand, the a** field, ** is hovering below 3000 points again, and it is estimated that many people are now more confused
Can A-shares do well next year?
If the downturn continues, what investment opportunities do we have?
Let's talk about this topic today.
First of all, let's take a look at the performance of the United States ** field this year.
In 2023, the overall trend of U.S. stocks has risen sharply, with the S&P 500** exceeding 20% and the Nasdaq 100** exceeding 50%:
Source: Wind app
On the economic front, the resilience of the U.S. economy exceeded market expectations, with year-on-year GDP growth from the first quarter to the third quarter of 2023 respectively. 9%, the reason for this is the consumption and investment of the residential sector and the ** sector, which has boosted GDP:
Due to the relatively stable economic growth, the inflation rate (CPI) in the United States has been relatively stubbornly maintained above 3%, so the Federal Reserve has not stopped raising interest rates this year, and the overall interest rate is still high (the federal benchmark interest rate has been maintained since the beginning of the year 4.).33% to 533%）。
Although theoretically speaking, interest rate hikes will generally suppress the first space, but in reality there are many factors that affect the rise and fall of the world, if the overall economy is improving, most of the corporate earnings growth rate is high, which can also offset the unfavorable factors of interest rate hikes and support the upward trend.
Secondly, let's take a look at the a** field.
This year, the CSI 300 Index** exceeded 13%, the CSI 500 Index** exceeded 7%, and the CSI 300 in particular hit a new low since 2021 on Friday.
In fact, since the beginning of the year, the overall trend of A-shares has remained upward, in May, the Shanghai Composite Index touched the highest above 3400 points, but then ** began to slump:
Source: Xueqiu).
At the end of August, the state launched a series of favorable policies such as halving the collection of stamp duty, but only stimulated the first day of high opening and low walking, after which the stock index slowly declined, falling to a minimum of 2923 points at the end of October. Until recently, the Shanghai Composite Index was still hovering below 3,000 points.
Why is the domestic ** performance so sluggish?It is mainly related to the slower than expected economic recovery.
A brief review of the domestic economy this year.
Overall, the domestic economy has ushered in a weak recovery after the epidemic, with real GDP growing by 5% year-on-year in the first three quarters2%。
At first glance it may seem good, but this result builds on last year's low base.
If we take 2021 as the base, the two-year average growth rate is only 41%；If we take 2019 as the base, the four-year average growth rate is only 47%, which is significantly lower than the pre-epidemic level and lower than the pre-epidemic level of domestic and foreign institutions on China's economy
Real economic performance vs. long-term growth trend (**
* China Macroeconomic Forum (CMF).
In the first quarter of this year, social finance and credit did usher in a good start, the main body of the economy is in the euphoric period after the restart, the backlog of consumer demand is released in retaliation, and enterprises have greatly increased production and inventory, which is reflected in a large round of growth
Since the beginning of the second quarter, the pent-up demand of economic entities has been released, the total demand has fallen sharply, enterprises have drastically destocked and cut prices, some industries have overcapacity, and the economy has begun to bottom out again.
In the third quarter, the state promoted a series of fiscal policies, monetary policies, real estate stabilization policies and policies to resolve local debt risks, so that economic activities stabilized at a low level.
An indicator that more intuitively reflects the economic situation this year is the trend of CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index).
* Huafu **.
We see that CPI and PPI are falling at the same time this year, and the past two months have been negative growth, and the PPI is lower reflecting the pressure of weak industrial demand and overcapacity, and commodities and industrial products are declining
The lower CPI is due to weak consumer demand and overcapacity of pigs, because the weight of pork ** in the CPI is higher, and this year's pork *** has also pulled down the CPI.
Under the pressure of the economy, the monetary policy this year is generally relatively loose, and the central bank has arranged multiple rounds of RRR and interest rate cuts under the pressure of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates
* Huafu **.
The RRR and interest rate cuts were originally intended to encourage banks to lend to enterprises and individuals, promote investment and consumption, and thus stimulate economic growth.
However, if people are not optimistic about the economic recovery and are unwilling to borrow, the funds will be deposited in the banks and fail to flow into the real economy, thus affecting the progress of the economic recovery.
This shows that people's confidence is also important, and if companies and individuals are worried about the uncertain future, they may choose to act conservatively, which will offset the strength of the central bank's monetary policy.
At the ** economic work conference held in December, it was mentioned that the difficulties and challenges faced by the economy this year were mainlyEffective demand is insufficient, overcapacity in some industries, and social expectations are weakWait a minute.
The state is well aware of some of the existing problems and is also beginning to deal with and solve them, and we must see that the general direction of the economic rebound has not changed, and we still need to enhance confidence and confidence.
Finally, let's talk about investment opportunities in 2024.
The inventory at the end of the previous few years was mainly analyzed from the perspective of the industry, assuming that the economy will improve in the future, which industries are more likely to benefit.
However, due to the uncertainty of the economic trend, the actual performance of some industries has not developed as expected.
This year, we might as well broaden our thinking and talk about the investment varieties that are worth laying out from the perspective of industry, style and asset allocation.
Let's start with the industry, which industry will be the key development direction next year?Answer:Scientific and technological innovation
According to the first economic work conference held not long ago, the first work focus next year isLeading the construction of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation
Key industries in science and technology include:Artificial intelligence, biomanufacturing, commercial aerospace, low-altitude economyand a number of strategic emerging industries.
This year, AI technology has swept the world, and the stock prices of foreign technology giants such as Nvidia and Microsoft have risen sharply, and some domestic listed companies have also risen in popularity.
In the future, the demand for AI-related chips, computing power and large models is relatively certain, but for ordinary people, the difficulty and risk of investing in ** are still too great, so you may wish to consider some related indexes**.
For example, the CSI Artificial Intelligence Industry Index rose very well in the first half of this year, and although it fell back in the second half of the year, it has risen by 11 since the beginning of the year81%。
In addition, there has been news recently that the national team has increased its holdings in the CSI Guoxin Central Enterprises Technology Index:
This type of index is customized by Guoxin Investment, such as the CSI Guoxin Central Enterprises Science and Technology Leading Index, which mainly selects 50 listed companies under the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) whose business involves aerospace and defense, computer, electronics, semiconductors, communication equipment and technical services as constituent stocks.
The background of state-owned enterprises + the direction of scientific and technological innovation, coupled with the increase in capital holdings, next year's performance is still worth looking forward to.
The second is the market style, that is, the preference of funds for different types of **. According to the company's performance and valuation, it can generally be divided into two categories: value stocks and growth stocks.
Value stocks: Companies are in a mature stage, with low earnings growth and relatively cheap valuations.Historically, growth styles and value styles have always alternated, for example, before 2021, market funds preferred growth companies, and industries such as new energy and innovative drugs rose sharply for a whileGrowth stocks: The company is in the growth stage, with high earnings growth and relatively high valuations.
However, after 2021, the growth style has turned off, the value style has begun to prevail, and the ** with high dividends and low valuation has been favored by funds.
The typical value style is represented by dividends**, and the increase in CSI dividends this year is 215%, the CSI Dividend Low Volatility Index rose by 681%。
As for whether it will be a value style or a growth style next year, it still depends on the economy, if the macro economy is good, growth stocks will perform better than value stocks, and vice versa, it will still be in favor of value style.
Judging from the year-end outlook of various institutions, it is believed that next year will be a moderate economic recovery, and the majority of earnings growth will pick up, and they are more unanimously optimistic about the growth style.
However, given the uncertainty of the economic recovery, it may be advisable to allocate some dividends** slightly, and in the absence of a clear improvement in various economic indicators, it may be a safe choice to try to do a good job of defense.
In addition, we know that due to the seesaw relationship between ** and the bond market, usually ***, the bond market is **.
I checked the CSI Total Bond Index, and it has been about 4% since the beginning of this year, except for the period from August to October, which has been stable for most of the time
CSI Total Bond Index Trend, Source: Xueqiu).
In addition to ** assets, ordinary people should appropriately allocate some bond assets, such as pure debt**.
Although it is said that bonds** will also fluctuate up and down like stock prices, some people buy bond bases, and there will be floating losses if they are not careful.
But in the long run, we earn mainly the coupon interest of bonds, and the short-term smashing out of the pit will be scalded out by time, from the perspective of asset allocation, hold some pure bonds for a long time, and when the performance is not good, you can also not shine in the east and the west, and harvest a stable income.
Finally, I wish you all a satisfactory return on investment in 2024.
This article was first published in Jane Seven Reading Cai.
id：jane7ducai）
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