[Value Catalog]: Produced by the research report ** Center with a point of view
The high incidence of respiratory diseases brings elasticity in the demand for testing
The flu positivity rate continues to rise, surpassing the highest level in the pre-COVID five years, and if the new coronavirus is excluded, the number of respiratory infections in 2023 is expected to be the highest in a decade. Testing is the premise of accurate drug use, and the outbreak of respiratory diseases has driven a significant increase in the demand for testing, bringing order flexibility to testing reagent companies.
At present, the northern provinces have entered a period of high incidence of respiratory diseases, and there is a common epidemic of multiple pathogens. According to the Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the top three reported cases of respiratory infectious diseases in the whole population in Beijing are: influenza, rhinovirus, and respiratory syncytial virus. Respiratory infectious diseases in children are ranked as influenza, adenovirus, respiratory syncytial virus, and Mycoplasma pneumoniae. The high incidence of respiratory diseases in children has led to a strain on medical resources in pediatric clinics and children's hospitals.
The number of reported cases of influenza has exceeded that of the same period in the past three years, and influenza is currently the main respiratory disease, and it is a long-term test by the disease control system, and the recent testing data has exceeded the same period in the past three years. According to the weekly influenza surveillance report released by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, in the 47th week of 2023, sentinel hospitals in northern provinces reported an ili% of 71%, up from the previous week's level (6.).1%), which is higher than the level of the same period in 2020 and 2022. 8% and 25%）。Sentinel hospitals in the southern provinces reported an ili% of 80%, which is higher than the previous week's level (6.).3%), which is higher than the level of the same period in 2020 and 2022. 4% and 32%）。
Driven by long-term demand, the market potential is gradually released
Unlike the new coronavirus, influenza, RSV and other respiratory pathogens have been with humans for more than 100 years, the driving force for the growth of its testing demand is the promotion of hierarchical diagnosis and treatment, rational drug use, and scientific prevention and treatment concepts, not just a transient demand formed by short-term infection peaks, and we expect that the future respiratory disease testing market potential is expected to exceed 8 billion yuan.
Clinical testing is of great significance in the prevention and treatment of respiratory diseasesRespiratory tract infections may be caused by different pathogens such as viruses, bacteria, mycoplasma, and chlamydia. Its prevention and treatment should follow the principles of prevention first, accurate diagnosis, and timely, and the pathogens that cause infection must be identified to select effective drugs and methods.
Mycoplasma pneumoniae testing - the incubation period test is of great significanceMycoplasma pneumoniae (MP) is the causative agent that causes human mycoplasma pneumonia with an incubation period of 2 to 3 weeks, first causing upper respiratory tract infections and then descending to tracheitis, bronchitis, bronchiolitis, and pneumonia. Children infected with Mycoplasma pneumoniae often do not have typical clinical manifestations, so it is important to test and use drugs in advance to the incubation period**.
Influenza virus testing – distinguish between type A and B. Influenza virus is an RNA virus, which is divided into four types: A, B, C, and D according to the nucleoprotein and matrix protein of the virus, among which human infection is mainly type A (A) and type B (B), and in antigen detection, type A and B can be distinguished and identified.
Multi-detection is in line with the development trend and has high barriers to entry
At the same time, the research and development cycle of multi-detection is long, the barriers to registration and certification are high, and it has a pricing advantage. Compared with single detection products such as new crown and myocardium, respiratory multiple antigen detection products have a longer growth cycle.
Multiplexing detection is more in line with the needs of clinical applications. There are many respiratory pathogens, screening and screening is the primary goal of detection, compared with a single test, multiple detection can more quickly detect and identify pathogens, and target**. Compared with the combination of multiple single-item pipelines, multi-line detection has more convenient operation and consistent data reliability.
Antigen multiplex detection - colloidal gold is the mainstay. Antigen rapid testing has played an important role in the prevention and control of the new crown epidemic, and the accumulation of experience in self-testing has accumulated experience in dealing with large-scale outbreaks. At present, antigen detection is mainly based on the combination of influenza A, influenza B, RSV virus, new coronavirus, and mycoplasma pneumonia, among which mycoplasma pneumonia and influenza A and B have more cross-infection.
Investment advice: short-term outbreak, continuous demand, pay attention to product barriers
1.The high incidence of short-term respiratory diseases, with the impact of the co-transmission of multiple pathogens such as influenza and mycoplasma pneumonia, has a certain seasonality, and it is expected that the peak of infection will gradually decline after January 2024 with reference to the transmission cycle of influenza in previous years. Estimating the duration of the current flu peak, it is estimated that the number of respiratory infections in 2023 will exceed the level of the three years before the epidemic was relaxed. If the coronavirus is ruled out, the number of respiratory infections in 2023 is expected to be the highest in a decade. Testing is the premise of accurate drug use, and the outbreak of respiratory diseases has driven a significant increase in the demand for testing, bringing order flexibility to testing reagent companies.
2.Unlike the new coronavirus, which has only been around 4 years since its discovery, respiratory viruses such as influenza and RSV have been with humans for more than 100 years, and the driving force for the growth of its testing demand is the promotion of hierarchical diagnosis and treatment and scientific prevention and treatment, not just a short-term transient demand, and we expect that the future diagnosis and treatment market potential of respiratory diseases is expected to exceed 8 billion yuan. At the same time, the research and development cycle of multi-detection is long, the barriers to registration and certification are high, and there is no trend of centralized procurement.
3.In the antigen triple detection, influenza A and B and mycoplasma pneumonia are more in line with the current screening needs of respiratory diseases, and the pricing is suitable, it is recommended to pay attention to [Innova], and the demand for influenza A and B antigen dual detection is also due to the recent growth of peak demand for influenza, it is recommended to pay attention to [Wanfu Bio] with domestic channel advantages. Antibody multiplex detection and chemiluminescence are more suitable for the promotion and use of grade hospitals, and it is recommended to pay attention to [New Industry], [Yahuilong] and [Antu Biotechnology]. Nucleic acid multi-link detection is currently mainly promoted in ** medical institutions, although the detection takes a long time, but has the advantage of sensitivity and accuracy, pay attention to the [Shengxiang Biology] that has obtained the respiratory six-link nucleic acid diagnostic reagent.
This is an abridged excerpt from the report, the original PDF of the report
Pharmaceutical Biology - Pharmaceutical Industry Special Report: Respiratory Disease Detection Market, High Incidence of Respiratory Diseases, Rapid Test Application Broadening-Huaxin**-20231212[Page 39]".
Report**: Value Catalog