Reading tips. Sisi's election with a high number of votes shows the trust and support of the Egyptian people for **. However, in the future, Sisi will need to properly handle domestic economic and social development issues, and face thorny diplomatic issues such as the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the Red Sea shipping crisis.
Egypt has recently come to an end, and the incumbent ** Sisi won with an absolute advantage and will start his third ** term. Sisi's election with a high number of votes shows the trust and support of the Egyptian people for **. However, in the future, Sisi will need to properly handle domestic economic and social development issues, and face thorny diplomatic issues such as the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the Red Sea shipping crisis.
Egypt** had a whopping turnout of 668%, compared to 41% in 2014 and 47% in 2018, a significant increase in the proportion of people who participated in the vote, showing the importance of elections and the high enthusiasm for political participation in Egypt. This was despite the fact that Sisi won 89 votes6%, down from 96 in 20149% and 9708%, but it also shows that diversity and inclusion in Egyptian politics are further strengthened.
For the 69-year-old, his re-election represents public recognition of his achievements in the past two terms, but the next six years of his term may face more challenges.
First of all, the economic development situation in Egypt remains grim.
After Sisi Sisi officially came to power in 2014, Egypt's economy has developed rapidly, and its per capita GDP has surpassed Algeria, Jordan and Tunisia, ranking 9th among all Arab countries, second only to the six Gulf Arab countries, Libya and Lebanon. But at the same time, Egypt's domestic economy has a high inflation rate, with an annual inflation rate of 36 in 20234%。
Over the past decade, Egypt has been relatively dependent on external financial assistance, especially from the Gulf Arab countries. How to find new impetus for economic development and improve the quality of life of the Egyptian people is the primary problem of Egypt's new term of office.
Secondly, conflicts in neighboring countries and regions have affected the Egyptian economy.
Tourism and shipping have long been important pillars of Egypt's economy. However, with the outbreak of the current round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the tourism industry in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula has been greatly affected, and the number of tourists in the Sinai Peninsula fell by 50% in November. Fearing that the Rafah border crossing connecting the Sinai Peninsula to the Gaza Strip would not be able to withstand the possible influx of Gaza refugees, Egypt has tightened its border control in the Sinai Peninsula and deployed a large number of military and police, further increasing Egypt's financial burden.
In the last fiscal year, which ended at the end of June 2023, tourism brought a record 136 to Egypt$300 million. However, the new round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has affected popular tourist destinations in the Sinai Peninsula, such as Taba, Nuweiba, Dahab and Sharm el-Sheikh, and has dealt a severe blow to the local economy.
Since November, Yemen's Houthi rebels have announced that they will seize and attack Israeli ships traveling to and from the Red Sea, as well as foreign ships to and from Israel, leading to the recent suspension of shipping operations by several international shipping companies in the Red Sea. According to statistics, from January to November 2023, a total of 24,000 ships will be navigable in the Suez Canal. Due to the impact on Red Sea shipping, Egypt's Suez Canal traffic has also decreased.
On December 19, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced that the U.S. was forming a new multinational force to protect ships transiting through the Red Sea. Austin said the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands and other countries will join the force. The Houthis have warned other countries not to participate in what the United States calls a "convoy alliance." The group also said that if the United States attacks the Houthis, then the US ** ship will be the target of the group's attack.
Against this backdrop, if the Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues for a long time, the confrontation between Yemen's Houthis and the United States in the Red Sea may also continue or even escalate, which will have a serious impact on Egypt's canal economy.
In addition, Egypt is also at risk of food and energy***.
In recent years, the international grain has been rapid, and in order to meet the huge domestic food demand, Egypt has had to reduce the grain through financial subsidies. As of April 2023, Egypt's foreign exchange reserves are only 345$500 million. The International Monetary Fund had previously estimated that Egypt would have a funding gap of $17 billion over the next four years. How to obtain more foreign exchange and continue to buy food to meet domestic needs is an important problem that Egypt needs to consider in the future.
On the energy front, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has affected Egypt's recent energy imports and re-exports. Before the current round of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Egypt imported about 15% of its total natural gas consumption from Israel every day. After the outbreak of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on October 7, Israel suspended the production of natural gas fields along the Mediterranean coast, and the flow of natural gas to Egypt fell to zero at one point.
In order to make up for the short-term shortfall in natural gas, Egypt has had to increase the price to buy liquefied natural gas from other Middle Eastern countries to meet market demand. The move further depleted Egypt's foreign exchange reserves.
Under the triple blow of persistent prices**, high inflation, and currency depreciation, the life of the Egyptian people has become more and more difficult. Especially after the outbreak of the Sudanese civil war in April this year, hundreds of thousands of Sudanese refugees were forced to leave their homes to seek refuge in neighboring Egypt, which further pushed up food and inflation pressures, and made Egypt's domestic economy and people's livelihood face new challenges. In response, Sisi said before the election that as long as the Egyptian people remain united with the country, "every crisis will eventually pass". (The author is an associate professor at Northwest University).