The domestic toy market in 2023 confirms the saying "how high the expectation is, how big the disappointment". Recall that at the beginning of the year, the national epidemic prevention and control policy was optimized, and the industry expected that the toy market could usher in a wave of explosion in the process of economic recovery. However, a year has passed, but the reality has dealt a heavy blow to everyone - the domestic toy market has not only failed to recover to the pre-epidemic level, but may even be inferior to the first two years before the epidemic.
When it comes to the reasons for the poor market this year, one of the things that manufacturers generally mention is that there is no big hit throughout the year, and it is the kind of big hit that can last for a long time. Of course, there are also some products in the market that sell well or are hot for a while, so that channel providers will not be too sad this year.
According to the monitoring of wholesale markets, shopping malls and mainstream e-commerce platforms in key cities across the country by the magazine "Chinese and Foreign Toy Manufacturing", combined with the feedback of manufacturers, the Chinese and Foreign Toy Center summarized four categories with outstanding performance and worthy of attention in 2023.
Cards: Popularity has declined, but the volume is still considerable. After winning the "top stream" of the toy industry for several years, the popularity of cards in 2023 will decline overall. Although this year, in addition to card games and card clubs, there are also new card brands such as hitcard and Kakavo, but in terms of categories, the market popularity and sales are not as good as in previous years.
A number of channel providers have reported to the reporter of the Chinese and foreign toy center that the sales of their cards have declined particularly seriously this year. For example, there would have been a wave of hot sales during the Spring Festival at the beginning of the year, but the result not only did not meet expectations, but also fell by one or two percent, or five or six percent compared with before. However, due to the general poor sales of other toy categories this year, and the original volume and high base of cards, it is still one of the important categories contributed by many channel providers.
Building block people: sales of innovative designs are rising. "Bruke's building block people are easy to sell", "If it weren't for Bruke's building block people, it's hard to say this year's business" "The enlightened building block people are very good, and the sales are very good" ......These are the recognition of the sales volume of building block people by channel providers. The reasons why building block people sell well include:
The innovative design of the product, such as the "Ultra Hero Building Block Man" of the enlightenment building block, breaks the technological limitations of the minifigure and embeds a spherical joint for the palm-sized minifigure to achieve 360° articulation of the joint
Small size, relatively low ** - such as the enlightenment building block man 5 6cm high, Bruco building block man about 10cm tall;
The most important thing is to have the blessing of IP - according to the channel provider, the sales of building blocks are mainly authorized products such as "Ultraman", "Transformers" and "Pokémon", which shows the far-reaching influence of classic IP.
Decompression toys: slow rebound, pinching music is popular. Due to the increasing demand for stress relief among young people, domestic stress relief toys are improving. This year, the popular decompression toys in the domestic market are mainly slow rebound and pinching, including two categories: authorized and non-authorized. Authorized decompression toys are mainly popular IPs such as "Egg Boy Party", "Pig Man" and "Milk Dragon".Non-authorized decompression toys have a variety of shapes, such as chickens, rabbits, tofu balls, pumpkins, turnips, buns, eggs, mallards and other animals, plants, food, and funny images.
Internet celebrity toys: electric water guns, radish knives, etc. are eye-catching. Since the popularization of the mobile Internet, there will be some Internet celebrity toys that have exploded on social platforms such as Xiaohongshu and Xiaohongshu in the toy market every year. This year, one of the popular Internet celebrity toys is an electric water gun. Some channel providers said that in recent years, electric water has been very good, and this year it is a product with novel shape, automatic water absorption, continuous launch, etc., coupled with the layout of large factories such as Xiaomi, which has set off a new round of enthusiasm.
The second is the turnip knife. The popularity of this kind of product is due to the anchor's delivery and short promotion**Cheap, suitable for a large age span of consumers, children and adults can play. Due to the explosion of this product, there are also products such as decompressive gravity radish hammer and radish knife eraser on the market. Of course, due to safety, values-oriented and other issues, this category of products has been banned in some areas, and the related popularity has gradually declined.
In addition to the above 4 categories of toys with outstanding sales, there are also seasonal toys, such as outdoor toys, water toys, beach toys, plush toys, etc., which will increase sales in the current season compared to usualIP authorized toys, "Ultraman", "Pokémon", "Transformers", "Super Wings", "Mini ** Team", "Glory of Kings", "Milk Dragon", "Egg Boy Party", "The Wandering Earth", "Quantum Troopers" and other new and old IP authorized toys are the mainstream;The popularity of trendy toys and blind boxes has declined, but the sales of popular IP blind boxes such as "Strawberry Bear" are still considerable, and the sales of cotton dolls have increasedDIY toys, goo cards, digital oil paintings, handmade graffiti, etc. continued the popularity of the previous year.
As for the reasons for the poor performance of the toy market in 2023, the unified view is first of all the objective economic environmental impact. Despite the high hopes at the beginning of the year, the impact of the three-year epidemic on the economy is very large, and it is impossible to immediately return to the pre-epidemic level.
From the consumer side, the People's Bank of China released data showing that RMB deposits increased by 25 in the first 11 months of this year65 trillion yuan, of which household deposits increased by 908.9 billion yuan. In addition, since the beginning of this year, the prepayment of mortgages by young home buyers has also sparked heated discussions. This shows that many consumers are more willing to repay their loans early to reduce stress or save more money to enhance their ability to resist risks compared to spending out and spending. At the same time, consumers have increased their spending on entertainment and leisure such as travel, concerts and movies this year, while their consumption of non-essential items such as toys has decreased relatively little.
Consumers do not completely do not buy toys, such as the Spring Festival, Children's Day and other traditional hot nodes, toy sales will still be higher than usual**. However, when purchasing products, parents will pay more attention to **, and high-quality and low-cost products are more favored. Among the above-mentioned products, single products (except for gift boxes and other products) in the categories of cards, building block people, non-authorized decompression toys, and radish knives are basically not more than 50 yuan, and some products** are even as low as single digits. From the perspective of channel providers, products with low unit prices can indeed be carried out, but the profits are low, and they sell a lot of goods, but they don't make much money, which is also a headache.
* When it's good, even if it's off-season, toy sales won't be bad;**When it's bad, the non-node market is particularly flat. Li Meng, manager of Xinjiang Muzi Shengqi Commerce, said that in the past, Xinjiang generally began to enter the final peak season in the fourth quarter, but this year's October and November were relatively weak, and the sales volume was not very ideal. There are also channel providers who have reported that this year, except for the Spring Festival and Children's Day, which have driven sales, the rest of the time is the off-season.
In addition to the economic environment, almost all manufacturers have mentioned that the decline in the number of newborns has a greater impact on the world. In the short term, the decline in the birth rate will lead to a decline in sales of infant toys, baby carriages and other categories, but in the long run, other toy categories will also be affected. A company leader who has been deeply involved in the toy industry for 8 years said: "In the past, everyone said that toys were easy to make because there were many newborns and there was a large demand. Even if there are video games to distract children, the base of 10 million or 20 million newborns per year is huge, and there is no need to be overly anxious. Now, with fewer children, the demand will decrease, and business will inevitably be more difficult. ”
No matter how difficult business is in 2023, it has already passed. Looking forward to the market in 2024, manufacturers are very positive, but they are relatively conservative, and the vast majority of them say that they should first look at the Spring Festival before making a judgment. According to the overall market situation, manufacturers have conveyed some information worthy of the attention of the industry.
Nowadays, consumers' requirements for goods are not only functional, but also to meet spiritual, emotional, fashion and other needs. Mr. Cao, a distributor, said that in the context of the decline in the number of newborns and the high pressure on children's learning, it is difficult for children's toy channel merchants to operate. This year, the periphery of "Chinese Strange Tan" was sold out, the crowdfunding around "The Wandering Earth 2" exceeded 100 million yuan, the blind box figure of Rong Baochuan's drastic face was sold out, and a piece of "Writer's Wild Dog" animation character acrylic stand was sold for more than 70,000 yuan in the second-hand market, all of which proved the consumption power of Datong.
The combination of toys + IP has been around for a long time, but in recent years, in addition to the IP of popular children's cartoons, the IP of manufacturers has expanded to the two-dimensional field and the IP of classic film and television dramas. Channel providers mentioned that popular and classic IPs have great influence and a large fan base, which can effectively ensure product sales and relatively small risks.
For the 2023 toy customer unit price reduction, high unit price products are difficult to sell, the industry generally believes that it is likely to continue in the coming year, it is recommended that manufacturers can develop more products with lower unit prices, IP blessings, and repurchase to meet market demand;Channel providers should pay attention to controlling inventory, carefully select new products, and beware of unsalable new products and overstocked inventory.
*: China and Foreign Toys Network (CTOY-GDTA).