Original title: **Economic Work Conference System Deployment of Economic Work in 2024 (Introduction).
Directional pilot, China's economy will climb "high" (theme) next year
From December 11th to 12th, the ** Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing. The meeting comprehensively summarized the economic work in 2023, deeply analyzed the current economic situation, and systematically deployed the economic work in 2024 to guide the high-quality development of China's economy.
It is worth noting that the meeting used a lot of new expressions full of profound meaning when deploying economic work in 2024. The interviewed experts said that these new expressions, as an important signal released by the meeting, not only reflect the new changes in the current economic development, but also anchor a new direction for better promoting high-quality economic development next year.
Seek progress in stability, promote stability with progress, and establish first and then break.
How to do economic work next year depends on the overall tone of the matter. The meeting pointed out that next year, it is necessary to adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability with progress, establishing first and then breaking down, and creating more policies that are conducive to stabilizing expectations, growth, and employment, and actively forging ahead in changing the mode, adjusting the structure, improving quality, and increasing efficiency, so as to continuously consolidate the foundation for stability and improvement.
Zhang Aoping, president of the New Quality Future Research Institute, explained in an interview with a reporter from the International Business Daily that different from last year's ** economic work conference put forward "stability first, stability and progress", this year's "to promote stability, first establish and then break" is a new formulation, reflecting that next year's economic work will be more active.
In 2023, the foundation for China's economic stability will be even stronger. In the first three quarters, China's GDP grew by 5% year-on-year2%, the growth rate of the world's major economies remains leading, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual target. During the same period, final consumption expenditure contributed 83 percent to economic growth2%, and the basic role of economic growth continues to play. In the first 11 months, China's total import and export value was the same as the same period last year, and it is expected to achieve positive growth for the whole year.
To promote stability, first stand and then break, which shows that the momentum of 'progress' is becoming stronger and stronger. It is necessary to promote 'progress' on the basis of 'stability', and also to achieve 'stability' through 'progress'. Zhang Aoping said.
Zhang Jun, dean of the School of Economics of Fudan University, said that the meeting proposed "establishing first and then breaking" to ensure that economic development does not experience major turbulence, but to maintain stability and continuity, to ensure that the entire economic development conforms to the laws of the economy and the market, and to achieve "progress while maintaining stability".
Supply-side innovation drives the development of new quality productivity.
For next year's economic work, the meeting clarified nine key tasks. Among them, "leading the construction of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation" is placed in the first place. The meeting emphasized that it is necessary to promote industrial innovation with scientific and technological innovation, especially to promote new industries, new models and new kinetic energy with disruptive technologies and cutting-edge technologies, and to develop new quality productive forces.
In September this year, the first general secretary proposed "new quality productivity" during his inspection in Heilongjiang. * The Economic Work Conference once again mentioned this keyword, which attracted attention from all walks of life.
In Zhang Aoping's view, the key to the supply-side structural reform at this stage is the innovation-driven strategy, and the final result of the supply-side innovation-driven is to produce innovative products, such as new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, smart homes, etc.
The meeting proposed to "implement high-quality development actions for key industrial chains in the manufacturing industry, strengthen quality support and standard guidance, and improve the resilience and safety level of the industrial chain".
In this regard, Zhang Aoping said that in terms of promoting the development of the manufacturing industry, China should increase support for the digital technological transformation of enterprises and the technological transformation of low-carbon and green enterprises. At the same time, for the meeting emphasized that "encourage the development of venture capital and equity investment", Zhang Aoping expects that next year, the scale and layout of investment in accelerating the formation of new quality productivity will continue to expand, and innovative enterprises need to seize a new round of opportunities. While breaking through the upper limit of innovation and development through new quality productivity, it is necessary to rely on improving the resilience and safety level of the industrial chain to maintain the bottom line of safe development.
A virtuous circle of mutual promotion of consumption and investment has been formed.
At present, the contradiction of insufficient domestic aggregate demand is still prominent. When making arrangements for next year's economic work, the meeting pointed out that it is necessary to "focus on expanding domestic demand" and stressed that "it is necessary to stimulate potential consumption, expand profitable investment, and form a virtuous circle in which consumption and investment promote each other."
The formation of a virtuous circle in which consumption and investment promote each other is a new formulation, which was expressed in the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China as 'enhancing the fundamental role of consumption in economic development and the key role of investment in optimizing the supply structure'. The new formulation reflects that next year, more attention will be paid to the promotion and conversion between consumption and investment in the work of expanding domestic demand. Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of the Chinese Society for Policy Sciences, said in an interview with a reporter from the International Business Daily.
Xu Hongcai further explained that the potential of "potential consumption" is that the potential of these areas is very large, and investment should be further expanded. "These investments are the so-called 'effective investments', which not only meet market demand, but also have driving force and radiation, which can drive the extensive participation of private investment and social capital, and at the same time mobilize the enthusiasm of foreign investment, increase more employment opportunities, and drive the development of the entire industrial chain. It also involves the application of some new technologies, such as expanding investment in the digital economy, intelligent manufacturing, green and low-carbon fields, and then cultivating new economic growth points and the development of emerging industries. Naturally, a virtuous circle of investment promoting consumption and consumption driving investment will eventually be formed. Xu Hongcai said. (Reporter Bai Shujie).
*: International Business Daily.