Recently, the Office of the National Disaster Prevention, Mitigation and Relief Committee and the Ministry of Emergency Management, together with the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Ministry of Water Resources, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the China Meteorological Administration, the National Energy Administration, the National Forestry and Grassland Administration and other departments and units, held a meeting to discuss and judge the national natural disaster risk situation in winter (December 2023-February 2024) and December. The details are as follows:
1. The risk situation of natural disasters in the country in winter.
Moderate El Niño events have formed and are expected to continue until next spring, which may lead to higher global temperatures, more frequent and stronger extreme weather, and an increased risk of disaster compounding. According to the comprehensive analysis, this winter, China's early winter is warm, the latter winter is close to the normal year, the southern precipitation is more, the northern region may have low temperature snow disasters, and the southern region may have periodic low temperature rain and snow freezing disastersThe forest fire danger level in southwest China and other places is high;Parts of the southwest and northwest may experience periodic meteorological droughts;There may be more catastrophic wave processes in coastal waters;Geological hazards in the south and northwest may occur scattered.
The first is the risk of low-temperature rain and snow disasters. According to the meteorological department, the temperature in most parts of China this winter is close to the same period of the year or high, the first winter is warmer, the latter winter is close to the normal year, and the precipitation in the south is moreIn the late winter period (January-February 2024), there are more cold air processes affecting China. Low-temperature and snowstorms may occur in the north and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and periodic low-temperature rain, snow and freezing disasters may occur in the south, but the possibility of long-term and large-scale low-temperature rain, snow and ice disasters is small.
The second is the risk of forest fires. Based on factors such as weather trends, fire patterns and fire source characteristics, the forest fire danger level is relatively high in some areas of North China, East China, Central China, South China, Southwest China, and Northwest China in winter. Among them, the forest fire danger level is high in some areas such as western Guangxi, southern Sichuan, southwestern Guizhou, and central and northern Yunnan, and extremely high fire danger levels may occur in some parts of southwest China. In addition, the western part of Sichuan, Gansu and Ningxia have a higher fire danger level.
The third is the risk of meteorological drought. Since September, Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan and Chongqing have had high temperatures and low precipitation, and meteorological drought has developed in stages. It is expected that the precipitation in the southeast of Northwest China and the northern part of Southwest China will be low and the temperature will be high in winter, and the development of meteorological drought in the above areas is more likely.
Fourth, marine disaster risk. Affected by the combination of cold air and cold air and extratropical cyclones, there may be one catastrophic extratropical storm surge process and 12-15 catastrophic wave processes of more than 4 meters along the coast of China, which is higher than that of the same period in the past ten years (116 times) is too much.
Fifth, the risk of geological disasters. The risk of geological disasters in western Zhejiang, southern Anhui, northwestern Fujian, northeastern Jiangxi, western Hubei, central Hunan, central and northern Guangxi, eastern Chongqing, western Yunnan, southeastern **, eastern Gansu, eastern Qinghai and other areas is relatively high.
2. The national natural disaster risk situation in December.
According to the comprehensive analysis, in December, there was a risk of low temperature rain and snow disasters in East China and Central ChinaSouth China, Southwest China and other parts of the forest fire danger level is high;The situation of the northern rivers being closed and closed will be further developedThere were slightly more catastrophic wave processes than normal;Geological disasters may occur in East China, Central South China, Southwest China and other places.
The first is the risk of low-temperature rain and snow disasters. According to the meteorological department, the temperature in most parts of the country in December is higher than usual, and there are mainly three cold air processes, which appear in the early part of the first half of the year, the middle of the middle of the month, and the early part of the second half of the year, and the intensity is moderate to weak. The precipitation in the southern part of North China, the northern part of Northeast China, East China, Central China, South China, and the southern part of Southwest China is higher than that in the same period of the year, and there is a risk of periodic low temperature rain and snow disasters.
The second is the risk of forest fires. Based on factors such as weather trends, fire patterns and fire source characteristics, the forest fire danger level in northern Beijing, northern Hebei, northeastern Shanxi, southern Fujian, southern Jiangxi, central Shandong, southern Hunan, most of Guangdong, most of Guangxi, western and southern Sichuan, western and southern Guizhou, eastern and northern Yunnan was relatively high in December, and some areas of western Guangxi, western Guizhou and eastern Yunnan were highly dangerous.
The third is the risk of flooding. At present, the main streams of Heilongjiang, Nenjiang, Songhua and Ussuri rivers have been frozen and frozen, and the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River was first sealed on November 30, 3 days earlier than the same period of the year (December 3). In December, the above-mentioned rivers will be further developed, and the rivers such as Heilongjiang, Nenjiang, Songhua, and Ussuri will be frozen across the board, and it is necessary to closely monitor and make preparations for the closure period to ensure the safety of anti-bullying.
Fourth, marine disaster risk. Affected by the combination of cold air and cold air and extratropical cyclones, there may be one catastrophic extratropical storm surge process and 5-6 catastrophic wave processes along the coast of China, which are slightly higher than those in the same period of the year.
Fifth, the risk of geological disasters. The risk of geological disasters in some areas such as western Zhejiang, southern Anhui, northeast Jiangxi, western Hubei, central Hunan, eastern Chongqing, and southeastern Chongqing is high.
In addition, low temperatures and strong winds caused by strong local cold air processes may affect the safety of local power grid lines in northeast Inner Mongolia and HeilongjiangLow temperature, rain, snow and freezing disasters in southern China may affect power equipment and facilities.
*: Ministry of Emergency Management**).