The three major indexes opened low and went high today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by more than 1%, and heavyweight stocks such as LONGi Green Energy and CATL rising sharply, driving the ChiNext Index to rise nearly 4%. Northbound funds frantically swept more than 13 billion yuan, and domestic capital rarely made a net inflow of more than 15 billion yuan. As of **, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 138%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 271%, the GEM index rose 385%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index rose 268%。
Today, A-shares rose sharply, with more than 4,500 major indices continuing to rise, and the ChiNext index rose by more than 4%, leading the core broad-based index. ChiNext ETFs are actively traded today, with an intraday turnover of more than 2 billion yuan. At the same time, the entire **large**, the RMB is more than 400 points. Those who have earned this wave of money today must have suffered a lot before!Today, A-shares rose on the hot search.
So, has the cross-year or spring agitation been set in?From the point of view of the amount of energy, today is indeed the pattern of large-scale volume. However, the whole market still reveals a hint of lack of money, because there is still a large wave of funds switching between high and low. In addition, although the number of ** limit has increased today, the number has not reached the point of boiling, and there are still many down limits**. In the process of pulling up, there are not too many followers. To change your beliefs, you may still need a few long white candlesticks.
Event: PV Sector Index since 1221 started this round **, today, the photovoltaic index rose by more than 6%.
In this regard, we comment on the following:
1. Stimulated by the return of events + funds, the photovoltaic industry has a significant trend. The transportation incident has strengthened the self-digestion effect of European inventory, and this round of ** is the first to take household storage as the most, followed by auxiliary materials and main chain;Today, as the penultimate trading day of 2023, style drift funds continue to return, and more links are gradually switched to auxiliary materials and main chains.
2. The main industrial chain has gradually bottomed out, and the signal of bottoming out of industry fundamentals has begun to be reflected. Recently, the module won the bid** in 08-1.0 yuan w, in order to lock in the operating rate in 2024, some enterprises** are relatively aggressive. We estimate that the cost of integrated module enterprises is about 09 yuan w+(0..)14 yuan silicon cost +065 yuan non-silicon, silicon cost, non-silicon cost are not tax), even after deducting depreciation, the cash cost is 0Above 8 yuan w, the component** is close to the bottom.
Domestic demand is still at a high level, and the industry is about to reverse, and the left side will become the right side. (1) The first batch of large bases has approved a total of about 290GW of projects, and about 40% has been completed by the end of 2023, and it is expected that the large base is expected to contribute 120GW+ of installed capacity in 2024. (2) According to foreign media reports, China's 14th Five-Year Plan still has lagging indicators such as energy consumption, and it is expected that emission reduction and energy conservation will be strengthened. Considering the above factors, we expect domestic demand to continue to exceed expectations in 2024, and the industry reversal is imminent.
Investment Advice:
Panorama of the photovoltaic industry chain
(Click to enlarge).
Structure diagram of photovoltaic backsheet industry chain
Structure diagram of photovoltaic paste industry chain
Structure diagram of photovoltaic glass industry chain