**：the defiant
On December 5, Bitcoin rose above $40,000 for the first time since May 2022, once **25%, up 4The $30,000 mark, which traded more than $46,000 on the day, erased all the losses caused by the collapse of the stablecoin TerraUSD last year.
Bitcoin's market capitalization has even surpassed that of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway. Bitcoin rose above 4 at one point$30,000, an increase of about 055%。Digital currency concept stocks rose, of which MFH is currently up 415%，hut8corp.Up 145%, BTCM rose 103%, digital currency exchange Robinhood rose 76%, Coinbase rose 40%, MARA up 68%, BTBT rose 68%。
The 2018-2019 bull market cycle ended in less than a year, with a return of around 39 times. The 2020-2021 and 2015-2017 cycles lasted more than a year, with returns of 11x and 1 in the first 365 days, respectively9 times. Essentially, the 2020-2021 cycle returns were mostly realized in the first year after the start of the bull market, while the 2015-2017 cycle accelerated performance after the first year. As far as the current bull cycle is concerned, Bitcoin is currently at the bottom of 26x, in terms of time, is roughly in the middle of a median bull cycle.
The current bull cycle exhibits extraordinary smoothness, more than any other cycle in Bitcoin's history.
On its way to its peak, the previous cycle experienced nearly 115 daily corrections of 5% or more (here we refer to negative returns as adjustments), and this cycle has experienced only 10 such corrections. Even shorter periods show more corrections than the current one.
So far, by the end of the bull cycle, there have been no less than 20 daily corrections of more than 5%. Therefore, if the characteristics of this cycle are similar to those of previous ones, then as the market continues**, we can expect at least 10 additional corrections before turning bearish.
Bitcoin halving is an event programmed within the Bitcoin network that occurs approximately every four years, specifically when 210,000 blocks are mined. During the halving, the block generation rate of new bitcoins is halved.
This has a significant impact on Bitcoin miners, as their mining rewards have also been cut in half. As a result, the mining industry has become more competitive, prompting miners to seek cost-effective energy sources to sustain their operations.
In addition, the halving significantly reduces the number of new bitcoins pouring into the market, which makes many market participants see the halving as a catalyst.
To illustrate the impact of the halving, let's take a look at Bitcoin before and after each halving. Prior to the first halving, more than 10 million bitcoins had been minted. Subsequently, just over 5 million bitcoins were issued before the second halving and about 2.5 million bitcoins before the third halving event.
These statistics highlight the decline in the rate of new Bitcoin issuance over time, highlighting the scarcity of cryptocurrencies and their potential long-term value appreciation.
While analyzing the three historical halving events may not provide a statistically significant sample size to draw definitive conclusions, the importance of the halving event within the Bitcoin community and its extensive discussion as a bullish catalyst cannot be overlooked. With that in mind, we delve into the data on historical halving events in the next section.
The next halving is expected to occur around April 2024 at block height 840,000. The mining reward will be reduced to 3125 btc。These cycles are clearly visible and appear to be related to these events, which can be clearly seen from the graph below, which shows the change in BTC ** after the halving event:
On a percentage basis, the impact of the halving is waning as BTC becomes a more mature asset. After the last halving event, a year after the halving*** more than 6 times.
In anticipation of the halving event, we also observed a strong BTC ** move, although it did not reach the intensity levels of the post-halving period. Again, with each new cycle, the percentage increase was modest, from more than % before the halving to 25%.
Before we prematurely associate crypto cyclicality with the halving cycle, we should try to isolate the impact of the global macro cycle on cryptocurrency.
As mentioned above, there is a lot of overlap, especially in the last few years. Therefore, we cannot say that the halving event is decisive for the timing of the start of a new cycle. While a positive macro environment may be the main determinant of crypto cyclicality, the halving cycle, as well as other crypto-specific events, can have a significant impact on the size of the bull market.
Crypto traders are likely to keep a close eye on the macro environment, with interest rates, oil prices, and the outcome of the ongoing geopolitical war expected to have a significant impact on the overall macro cycle.
So farThe main bullish triggers were a series of high-profile mega-bank bankruptcies, speculation on crypto ETF products, and a settlement between Binance and regulators that eliminated one of the biggest potential black swan events.