Recently, there has been a phenomenon in the domestic grain market, especially in the corn market. This is mainly due to the downturn in the breeding industry and the increase in the amount of imported corn, resulting in low market confidence. At present, the national average price of corn is 2,630 yuan, 27 yuan tons compared with the end of last month, a decrease of about 1%. There are many reasons for this. First of all, under the influence of rain and snow cooling weather, the progress of grassroots corn grain sales has slowed down, and the market's concerns about the postponement of tide grain sales pressure have become stronger. Secondly, the domestic breeding industry is sluggish, the loss of pig fattening is serious, and the downstream demand side of the feed enterprise inventory is relatively safe, and the procurement enthusiasm is average. In addition, the loose inventory of imported corn and directional rice, and the poor demand follow-up of feed enterprises, also made the corn market continue to be sluggish.
From the first point of view, at the end of November, the market is generally bearish on the corn market, in the northeast region, after the temperature drops, the land is frozen, the quality of grain in some areas has declined, the phenomenon of toxins exceeding the standard has increased, the phenomenon of farmers threshing and selling grain has increased, and the purchase and sale of corn at the grassroots level in Northeast China has heated up. However, due to the weak demand of feed enterprises, deep processing is mainly based on rolling replenishment, and the cautious construction of the warehouse is strong. Although there is a certain stimulating effect on downstream enterprises such as the breeding industry, for farmers, the upswing mentality shown by the grain market will not last, and it will also have an impact on their income. At the same time, the downturn in the market will also cause losses to some ** businessmen, and it is necessary to be vigilant. Farmers and businessmen need to stay calm and avoid blindly following the trend. **Need to strengthen supervision, regulate market sentiment, and stabilize the market**. In the course of future development, it is also necessary to strengthen the market early warning and regulation mechanism to promote the steady development of the grain market.
In the North China market, due to the large number of Chaozhou grains in Northeast China, the purchase and sale of local corn were not smooth, resulting in an increase in the transfer of low-priced corn. This has led to a surge in corn, but feed companies are cautious in demand, and merchants are going with the harvest. At the same time, the inventory of deep processing enterprises is relatively safe, and the pressure of replenishment is weak, so the price reduction sentiment of enterprises is strong. In the Shandong market, although the amount of corn has surged to about 1,700 cars before, the current level of the factory is still about 1,280 cars, which makes the company loose. The corn spot in Shandong maintained a weak adjustment trend. Corn ** dropped to 1284~1.375 yuan catty. Institutional analysis shows that due to the increase in autumn grain corn production has become a foregone conclusion, and the import of corn and other cereals is relatively large, the domestic trade corn consumption level of feed enterprises is poor, coupled with the downturn in the domestic breeding industry, the feed consumption level has declined, and the market is generally bearish on the corn outlook. In the short term, corn spot will still be lower.
In the wheat market, after the wheat at the end of November was lowered, the market was further under pressure, and the "Waterloo" was staged, and the mainstream milling enterprises were mainly weak. Institutional analysis believes that due to the pressure on the price of autumn grain and corn, the pessimism in the market has become stronger, and the bullish confidence in the wheat market has been frustrated. In particular, near the end of the year, the domestic temporary storage and the lowest purchase price of wheat are expected to start the auction process within the month, and the mentality of grain merchants has deteriorated, and the phenomenon of cash withdrawal has increased. The level of wheat circulation has gradually improved, the grain supply in front of the enterprise has increased, and the pressure on the tight wheat has improved significantly. To sum up, the increase in autumn grain corn production has become a foregone conclusion, imported corn and other cereals are many, the domestic trade corn consumption level of feed enterprises is poor, the domestic breeding industry is sluggish, the feed consumption level is declining, and the market is generally bearish on the corn outlook.
In terms of the wheat market, near the end of the year, the domestic temporary storage and the lowest purchase price of wheat is expected to start the auction process within the month, the mentality of grain merchants has deteriorated, the level of wheat circulation has gradually improved, and the pressure of wheat tightening has improved significantly. 【Summary】This paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the corn and wheat markets, and discusses the production and marketing situation, the trend and market expectations. Through the description of the article, it can be seen that the corn market is in surplus, resulting in the gradual reduction of pressure in the wheat market, and the trend is weak. Overall, the market is bearish on corn and bearish on wheat, which is closely related to market supply and demand conditions and policy expectations. The wheat market is in trouble, and the problem is intensifying, leading to a series of ripple effects. First, the widening of the price gap between wheat and corn has led to a decrease in the cost-effectiveness of wheat starch. Therefore, starch enterprises are more inclined to use corn starch, which leads to a reduction in the operating rate of some starch enterprises.
In addition, there are also problems on the demand side, mainstream milling enterprises have encountered shipping difficulties, due to the low consumption demand of households for wheat, the market lacks the willingness to stock up. **Merchants mainly purchase rigid demand, while the pressure of enterprise inventory backlog increases, and the operating rate of enterprises rises weakly, mainly relying on inventory consumption to maintain production. Therefore, the motivation to buy wheat is average. At the same time, corn ** declined, soybean meal spot ** fell below 3900 yuan ton, and the profit margin of milling enterprises was poor, resulting in a strengthened price reduction mentality and pressure on the bran market. Under the long and short adjustment of the wheat market, winter wheat producing areas, such as Shandong, Hebei and Henan, mainstream milling enterprises have reduced their prices and generally lowered their prices by 05 1 cent. Wheat** in Shandong fell to 147~1.53 yuan catty, the mainstream ** gradually fell below 15 yuan catty. In the Hebei market, wheat** fell to 1474~1.51 yuan catty, mainstream *** to 15 yuan or less.
In the Henan market, wheat** generally fell to 146~1.525 yuan jin. The entire food price market is in a state of "chaos". The emergence of these problems has led to different perceptions of the wheat market. Some believe that the wheat market is due to an increase in production without a corresponding increase in demand, resulting in a backlog of stocks, which in turn triggers the market, while others believe that this time is due to a shortage of corn in the market, which in turn led to the loss of wheat. There are also those who believe that this ** is caused by the oversupply of the market, and the oversupply of the market is caused by policy adjustment and technological upgrading. In this context, opinions remain divided on the future of the wheat market. Some argue that strong policies should be put in place to stabilize the wheat market, such as stimulating market demand by increasing wheat purchases.
Others believe that grain enterprises should be encouraged to upgrade their technology and improve their deep processing capacity of wheat, so as to increase the added value of wheat and thus improve the competitiveness of wheat. In addition, some people have also put forward suggestions for the development of the wheat industry, believing that the first should be guided to strengthen the research of wheat planting technology, so as to improve the yield and quality of wheat, and then increase the market demand for wheat. In short, the problems facing the wheat market are complex and diverse, and they need to be solved by the joint efforts of enterprises and enterprises. ** Strong policies should be introduced to stimulate the demand of the wheat market, and at the same time encourage enterprises to strengthen technological upgrading and develop the wheat industry, so as to achieve long-term stability and healthy development of the wheat market.
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