Eight years ago, the Paris Agreement global goal was to limit temperature rise to 15 degrees Celsius to avoid more climate chaos. Since then, however, greenhouse gas emissions have been increasing. Climate disaster headlines are now everywhere, with massive wildfires and floods raging like never before. In 2023, the temperature has risen by 12 degrees Celsius, which is above pre-industrial levels. Extreme heat events are becoming more frequent and lasting longer and are posing a serious threat to the planet. We are in a race against time to achieve 1The 5 degree Celsius warming target is less than 10 years away.
This week, global climate scientists and top leaders issued louder and more worrying warnings at COP28. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said that our efforts to combat climate change are like a small ant facing a huge problem, and we have opened the door to a very bad situation. Thus, at COP28, hosted in the United Arab Emirates, all the great powers from 198 countries came together. The question is whether we can see real action or just half-hearted attempts.
Assess progress on climate action.
Negotiators are dealing with three important issues. This year's global review is the big thing. As the main instrument set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement, it prompts countries to commit to doing more for the climate. This is the first time they have examined each country's emissions reduction plans, as well as their performance in adapting to climate change or developing new economic plans. This review will tell us which direction to take. Whether all countries' emissions reduction pledges are sufficient to stop excessive temperature rise15 degrees Celsius. If the answer is no, then how big is the "emissions gap". How much more countries need to do to reduce emissions.
Let's look at this: the UN's major inspection of the world's climate has given us a reality check, things are getting better, but not by much. If the pledges made by countries to reduce emissions are indeed met, the global temperature will still rise sharply, by 21 to 2Between 8 degrees Celsius. This means that by 2030, there will be a shortfall of about 22.9 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions. A really bad scenario, like global warming of more than 4 degrees, is unlikely to happen now. But even in a 2 degree Celsius world, there will be a lot of damage that we can't repair.
Who pays for climate loss and destruction.
We need bigger targets to help us reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 43% by 2030 and by 60% by 2035. Because if we want the world to stop emitting CO2 by 2050, we have to step up. The success of COP28, an important climate conference, will depend on whether the largest emitters agree to do more to reduce emissions. There has long been a debate over who should bear the cost of all the ill consequences of climate change. Now, we are about to build a new ** to deal with all the loss and damage. This will be the second important topic discussed by negotiators at COP28.
To date, countries have made plans for this new one. Be prepared for some debate about who will be in charge of this work, perhaps the World Bank, or an agency of the United Nations. But the point is that they haven't decided on a fixed amount of money, and they haven't decided how to allocate it. Before this plan can be put into action, everyone at COP28 needs to officially give it the green light. Why do we need this new **? Other climate-related funding commitments are mainly about reducing emissions or helping society cope with the effects of climate change. However, the whole point of this ** is to deal with the loss and damage that we can't avoid, such as rising sea levels, extraordinarily long heat waves, turning land into deserts, oceans becoming more acidic, crazy weather, and bad crops.
Climate finance is in**.
In places like Pakistan or Libya, unprecedented floods have caused great chaos. Now, a big issue in the climate negotiations is how to prepare countries' economies for climate change, which means reducing emissions and better responding to disasters. This is a daunting task for countries that are still developing, and they need a lot of money and advanced new technologies to avoid over-reliance on fossil fuels. This can become a point of contention. So far, the inflow of money to combat climate change has been too slow. Under the Paris Agreement, rich countries pledged $150 billion a year. Although it was achieved gradually, only $130 billion actually flowed into the market in 2021.
How to build a consensus of 198 **.
If we don't see some significant improvements in climate finance, such as actual start-up loss and damage**, and stick to the commitments that have been made, it will be difficult to make progress on other important issues. We are talking about scaling up emissions reductions, moving away from fossil fuels, and doing the necessary work to save our biodiversity. In September, we have exceeded 1The temperature rose by 5 degrees, and by November we exceeded 2 degrees for the first time. What's going on. One reason for the slow progress of these climate negotiations is that everyone has to agree on some issues, and that will take time.
In this climate negotiating club, which includes 198 countries, anyone involved in decision-making must give their consent. This means that only one country or group of people can veto, or ask for a change in the scheme before expressing consent. It's like a team project where everyone has to agree on every detail. Less wealthy countries, such as small island states or those still in the development stage, have just as much vote as the big countries in the G20, which account for 85% of the world's wealth. This arrangement actually helps to drive more climate action, such as putting 15 degrees Celsius as a goal to stop global warming.
The head of COP28 is Sultanahmedal-Jaber. He is in the spotlight for running the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. Countries will agree on "phasing down fossil fuels" or just "phasing down fossil fuels that are on the rise". Now, this may seem like a trivial issue, but it's a major one. The second option suggests relying heavily on technologies that we are not sure will work, such as carbon capture and storage, and the use of offsets. But that's thanks to Sultan Jaber, who has been pushing for advanced ideas, such as a focus on protecting, restoring, and sustainably managing natural resources to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.
Against this backdrop, we find some positive factors similar to the global biodiversity framework, a large international agreement on biodiversity reached last year. The purpose of this agreement is to prevent species extinction and protect ecosystems from destruction. Healthy ecosystems do play some cooling roles, such as storing carbon and helping people cope with climate change that is already happening. As countries prepare for two weeks of ultra-intense negotiations, their stakes are more important than ever. The big question now is whether the international community will be able to make the most of this moment.
If you are interested in the article, please follow me or leave me a message