Under the structural **, there is often a window period for thematic investment to enter, and thematic investment is in line with the development trend of the times. With the catalysis of policies, industries or events, it can often develop into the key main line of the market.
Figure 1: Thematic Investment Framework
*: Zheshang**, as of: 202312.29How to do a good job of thematic investing?
Combined with the industrial cycle, thematic investment often shines in the rise cycle of emerging industries.
From 2008 to 2015, there were many thematic investment opportunities, such as industrial themes such as Internet+, policy themes such as state-owned enterprise reform, and event themes such as Disney.
Specifically, from 2002 to 2008, heavy industry led the traditional industry, from 2016 to 2021, consumer stocks led the traditional industry, and from 2009 to 2015, smartphones led the emerging industrySo far in 2021, new energy has been led by new energy and then AI, and emerging industries have taken the lead.
Similar to the iPhone to smartphones and models to new energy vehicles, the birth of popular products is the key to the breakthrough of artificial intelligence penetration. Explosive products verify the feasibility of the track and transform the "concept" into a deterministic growth attribute. The advent of ChatGPT has broken the traditional perception of artificial intelligence by human beingsThe application of AI in various fields has been implemented one step ahead of schedule, which is the window period for exploring thematic opportunities.
Figure 2: The AI wave led by ChatGPT leads a new round of industrial waves
*: CNKI, Wind, Zheshang**, as of: 202312.28 Taking the mature market of the United States as an example, the S&P 500 has recently approached its all-time highThis is due to the explosion of the AI boom.
From Nvidia to Microsoft, the seven major U.S. tech giants have contributed 64% to the S&P 500's year-to-date gains. The "Big Seven" also includes Amazon, Apple, Google parent Alphabet, Meta and Tesla. The companies are expected to earn 22% more next year, double the growth of the S&P 500, according to the data.
Under the new cycle of the rise of emerging industries, the structural highlights represented by the rise of AI are more prominentThis is the core driver for the market to continue the characteristics of the theme investment year. True value investors are good at thinking backwards, and the investment opportunities in technology stocks below 3,000 points are becoming more and more obvious.
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