2024 will be a turbulent and uncertain year, as important elections will be held in many countries. According to the newspaper Reference News, the Spanish newspaper La Vanguardia published an article entitled "2024, a dangerous election year", in which the author believes that these elections will bring more uncertainty to the unstable international situation. Nearly half of the world's population will participate in elections, and some unexpected election results this year have further exacerbated the uncertainty. For example, the victories of Javier Milley in Argentina and Hert Wilders in the Netherlands were both surprises, and such surprises are likely to happen again in the upcoming elections. However, there is one country where the outcome of the election is more certain, and this country is one of the most important countries in the world.
Elections in the United States are considered the ones most likely to change the course of history. However, contrary to expectations, there is not much uncertainty about the election in the United States. The two sides of the campaign will be two old faces, the former Trump and the current Biden. Whoever wins a second term will be largely determined in their policy orientation. If Biden is re-elected, the United States will continue to follow its current policy. If Trump is re-elected, then he will further reverse the policy of the United States a few years ago, with huge repercussions for the United States and the world. Trump's victory will bring about another major change in US policy, which will have far-reaching consequences for the United States and the world.
In addition to the United States, the United Kingdom may also stage a comeback. Due to the poor performance of the current Prime Minister Sunak, the support of the British Conservative Party has been declining. Currently, the Conservatives are considering a comeback for former Prime Minister Johnson, as Johnson is the only one who can stand up to the Labour leader. Despite Johnson's limited talent, he excels at infighting. According to British rules, elections must be held by 2025, and time is running out. If Sunak can't please most of the Conservatives in the short term, then the Conservative politicians may decide to bring Johnson back to face off against his opponents. Given the current situation in the UK, even if Johnson becomes prime minister again, his influence will be limited.
Next year, there will also be elections in the two BRICS countries, Russia and India. However, the results of the elections in these two countries are almost certain, that is, the re-election of the current leaders. In Russia, Putin has already announced his candidacy for re-election, and other candidates can only hope for it. Considering that Russia is currently in a state of war, the replacement of ** is equivalent to a temporary change of commander, which is not beneficial to Russia. In India, Modi's goal, of course, is to be re-elected, and judging by the current situation, no one can pose a threat to him. It would not be surprising if, by 2025, the United States will still be Trump, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom will still be Johnson, the Russian Prime Minister will still be Putin, and the Prime Minister of India will still be Modi. However, the world will not really "go back to the past" because the world has changed dramatically, even if people are still the same people.
2024 will be a year of uncertainty, as important elections will be held in many countries. Although some election results may be unexpected, in some countries, such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, and India, there is already some certainty in the outcome of the election. Elections in the United States are likely to have a significant impact on the world, and elections in the United Kingdom and the BRICS countries will also have varying degrees of impact on their respective countries. However, regardless of the outcome of the election, the world has changed and there is no real "return to the past". History is irreversible, and we need to find new directions and opportunities in the midst of change. Re-evaluating and adapting to these changes is the only way to usher in a future that is more fraught with opportunities and challenges.