If you can't learn from history, then history will become a curse, and if you can use history as a mirror, you can predict the pit on the road of development and successfully jump over. Argentina** clearly does not have the consciousness to know the rise and fall through the lens of history.
Reuters reported on Dec. 8 that a source at Argentina's state-owned national oil company said it had increased fuel at gas stations by an average of 25% as the country grappled inflation that could reach more than 180% this year.
Inflation above 180% and a 25% increase in fuel** are really shocking figures. Inflation in Argentina is even higher than the experts at the beginning of the year, and the Argentine people can no longer afford even basic household items. In this case, the oil companies raise the fuel**, and the major cities in Argentina may stop operating!
This is also the reason why the right-wing liberal Milley was elected, he proposed a set of **Argentine economy**, such as the closure of economic banks, the dollarization of the economy, etc., these policies sound crazy, but the Argentines in dire straits think that the national economy is already like this, and the dead horse is used as a live horse doctor, no matter how crazy the policy can be tried.
But is Milley's policy really worth a try?If we look back at the ups and downs of the Argentine economy in history, we will see that if Milley had implemented such a policy, the consequences would have been very serious.
Historically, Argentina was once the "land of abundance" in South America. 100 years ago, Argentina's economy grew at a rate of 8%, surpassing most European countries and only slightly weaker than the United States.
At that time, Argentina's economy flourished for two reasons:
One is the dividends of the second industrial revolution, which has brought the world's productive forces to a new level, and various new technologies have promoted economic development
The second reason is that in the First World War, countries imported food from Argentina, and Argentina made money!
But why did Argentina's economy suddenly decline?
There are two main reasons for the sudden decline of the Argentine economy:
1. Pin your hopes on the West;
2. Single industrial structure.
Argentina's two major economic ups and downs were both influenced by the West's policy towards Argentina. When Argentina's economy is good, it is when the West imports Argentine grain in large quantities. When the West raises tariffs and reduces imports of Argentine grain, the Argentine economy will not work.
In the seventies of the last century, there was an inflation problem in the whole West, and the number of unemployed people was increasing. In order to protect themselves, Western countries have reduced their imports of Argentine grain and have also raised tariffs.
At this time, the Argentine economy lost its support, because the industrial structure is too simple, the economy has no internal circulation capacity, and the Argentine economy is immediately in trouble. Over time, Argentina's finances could not afford to pay for the welfare policies given to the people. However, the people are willing to give up the benefits they are already enjoying, and they have no choice but to borrow ......As soon as you start borrowing, the situation gets out of hand......
But Argentina has not learned its lesson, or because its leaders have failed to boost the Argentine economy, Argentina may be on its way to the old ways.
In the future, Milley will pin his hopes on the United States and the West, and it is foreseeable that Argentina will experience another round of defeat. Unlike the previous situation, the United States and the West were able to save the Argentine economy before pushing it to the bottom. Today's United States and the West are unable to protect themselves, and they have long been unable to be anyone's saviors.
The biggest bug in Milley's New Deal was the abandonment of the Argentine currency in favor of the full use of the US dollar, which is equivalent to handing over all fiscal sovereignty to the United States. Argentina is not a small country, but the second largest economy in South America, and the full adoption of the dollar by such a large country is too unworkable. In addition, inflation is also in the United States, and the value of the dollar is getting lower and lower, and Milley wants Argentina to fully adopt the dollar, which is to tie the Argentine country to a train that is bound to fall apart and perish with it!
In order to get closer to the United States, Milley's team proposed to withdraw from the "Belt and Road", about which China has nothing to say, the path of its own choice, and walk it on its knees!