1. Stop raising interest rates and continue to sell Mao liquor in the north.
1. When northbound funds continue to sell liquor or even sell Moutai frantically, the problem may have changed, liquor is the heart of foreign capital, and selling Moutai is equivalent to selling the last hole card.
2. The United States stopped raising interest rates and maintained interest rates at 525~5.The level of 5 remains unchanged, which is in line with market expectations, until September this year, some meetings have paused interest rate hikes three times in a row, and the outside world generally believes that the current round of interest rate hike cycle is over, since March 2022, interest rate hikes have begun, and the cycle ends in July this year, a total of 11 interest rate hikes have been raised, with a cumulative rate hike of 525 basis points, and ** 75 basis points of interest rate reduction to 4 in 20246%。
3. Foreign investors have sold nearly 200 billion yuan this year, and so far there is no end to it, A-shares have fallen so much, and the valuation is also at a historical low.
Second, 2960 points are still valid for the low.
1. The US dollar**, the US stock market soared, **also soared, the Hang Seng Index's ** to 16,409 points, the A50 index also appeared simultaneously**, from the recent index performance, the Shanghai Composite Index near 2 960 points low is still valid.
2, yesterday ** may be an over-interpretation of the meeting, the trend of digging pits, if there is a low point in the early stage of adoption, it has not been broken, it is still valid, the index continues to be sluggish, too many people are Xi to it, day **, and then night slightly up, the second day followed by ** day, this is the trend of the index ** with ** index.
3. The core point of view from last week to the present is the low point, the effective sustainability and the expected turn of the Fed's interest rate meeting results, liquidity is finally coming, but if you wait until the results come out today, you may not be able to buy the lowest point, you will buy early, you will not be able to buy too late, and it is not only investment decisions and confidence that are affected by emotions and fluctuations, but also great wisdom and firm patience.
3. The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged.
On December 13, local time, according to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes in December and maintain the target range of the federal interest rate at 525% to 550% between.
We have predicted that the Fed's current strategy is to keep interest rates at a high level, and it is enough to maintain a strong level of the dollar, and there is no need to raise interest rates again, about two quarters, so interest rate cuts may occur as early as May next year, as long as foreign capital does not flow out, ** will bottom out and rebound!
Fourth, policymakers are thinking about and discussing when it is appropriate to cut interest rates. And at the meeting, the timing of the rate cut was discussed. The Fed's dot plot shows that it is expected to cut rates three times by 25 basis points next year, and four more in 2025. After the message landed.
The U.S. dollar index quickly retreated to 1029. Non-US currencies rose, among which the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen rose more than 1 against the US dollar6%, the euro rose more than 0 against the dollar8%, the offshore yuan rose 0 against the dollar6%, GBP/USD rose nearly 05%。Spot ** rose 4 in the day00%,*1% The three major U.S. stock indexes all exceeded 1%.
Yesterday, after the market, our social finance data was also announced, and the scale of social financing increased by 2 in November45 trillion yuan, the market estimate is 243 trillion yuan, the previous value was 1,845.2 billion yuan. In November, the amount of money M2 increased by 10% year-on-year, and the market estimate was 103% vs. 103%。New RMB loans in November109 trillion yuan, the market estimate is 127 trillion yuan, the previous value was 738.4 billion yuan.
Yesterday, A-shares fell sharply, blaming the reason for the lack of a large-scale economic stimulus plan for the economic work is nonsensical