After three months, the third round of deposit interest rate cuts this year is coming!
On December 22, the reporter of "International Financial News" found that Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of Communications and China Merchants Bank have updated the deposit listing interest rate on their official websites. The reporter noted that the scope of this round of adjustment is wider than that of the second round of reductions on September 1, and the interest rates of time deposits, agreement deposits and call deposits have been lowered to varying degrees.
The third rate cut this year.
According to the latest listed interest rate table adjusted by various banks, the current three-month listed interest rate of fixed deposit is 115% for 1 month for six months35% for 1 year45% and 1. for two years65%, 195% and 2 for five years0%, the adjustment method continues the previous style of long deposit period and much lower price, and the current round of reduction is also between 10bp (basis points) and 25bp.
It is worth noting that compared with the second round of cuts on September 1, this round of interest rate cuts involves more types of deposits. The reporter of "International Financial News" combed and found that the agreement deposit and call deposit are also within the scope of adjustment, and the interest rate is reduced by 20 basis points as a whole. Among them, the 7-day call deposit rate fell below 1% to 08%γIn addition, among the time deposits, the listed interest rates of fixed deposits with interest on deposits and deposits have also been reduced by 10bp as a whole.
Looking at the three rounds of deposit interest rate cuts this year, on September 1, the two-year lump sum deposit and withdrawal interest rate was reduced by 20bp to less than 2%;After this round of adjustment, the three-year lump sum deposit and lump sum interest rate has also entered the era of starting with the word "1", and only the five-year interest rate is currently maintained at 2%. In terms of overall decline, the three-year and five-year lump sum deposit and withdrawal rates were both lowered by 65 basis points from the beginning of the year.
Signal to stimulate consumption.
Why have deposit interest rates been lowered frequently since the beginning of this year?
Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the financial market department of Everbright Bank, believes that this is related to the complex internal and external environment facing China's economic recovery in recent years, the increasing operating pressure of the banking sector, the continuous decline in market interest rates, and the supply and demand structure of the deposit market.
It is still necessary to treat the phenomenon of rapid decline in deposit interest rates in recent years, which is related to the special macroeconomic environment. As the economy gradually recovers, interest rates will also stabilize relatively well. Zhou Maohua said.
China's monetary policy before the epidemic has moved from slightly loose to moderate normal, with the main purpose of slowing down economic overheating and preventing a hard landing. During the epidemic, interest rate policy gradually eased, and by the end of the epidemic lockdown this year, interest rate cuts have become more and more frequent. Li Nan, an associate professor at the Advanced School of Finance of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, analyzed, "The main reason is that the retaliatory consumption expected by the market has not appeared, the real estate risk is exposed, and the society needs to stimulate consumption factors." The reduction of interest rates at this time is, in a greater sense, a signal to stimulate consumption at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. β
Li Nan further pointed out in the interview that the main reason for the current sluggish consumption is the sluggish supply side, which makes employment poor, and the confidence of social residents in obtaining sustained and stable income in the future is insufficient. The recovery in consumer confidence is a slow process, and attempts to stimulate consumption by lowering interest rates are limited, and the fundamental solution lies on the supply side.
There is still room for downward adjustment in the future.
Approaching the end of the year, it is a key node for banks to welcome the "good start" of the new year. On December 20, the LPR (loan market ** interest rate) was released in December, and the 1-year LPR was 345%, and LPR for more than 5 years is 420%, which has been "standing still" for four months in a row.
Generally speaking, the LPR is related to the reduction of deposit interest rates in the direction, but it does not form an absolute correlation in time and magnitude. As an interbank lending rate, LPR is related to the operation behavior of banks to balance assets and liabilities at sensitive times in the short term, and is related to deposit interest rates in the long run. Li Nan said.
Zhou Maohua pointed out that at present, the domestic economy has not yet recovered to the potential level, there are some imbalances in the economic recovery, overseas demand is uncertain, and the domestic counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment will be moderately increased. It is expected that the LPR will still be lowered to a certain extent in the future, mainly to guide financial institutions to reasonably reduce the comprehensive financing cost of the real economy, reduce the cost of consumption and investment, further boost the vitality of micro entities, and help accelerate the recovery of the economy.
Considering that it will take some time for the pressure on banks' net interest margin to ease, it is expected that the follow-up LPR interest rate will need the support of the central bank + ** reform to guide the interest rate center of the entire market to move further downward. Zhou Maohua further analyzed.
In the future, how much room is there for deposit interest rates to be lowered?
Li Nan analyzed in the interview that on the whole, there is not much room for further reduction in deposit interest rates. "First of all, China's monetary policy generally returns to the normal cycle from a certain adjustment direction every 3 to 4 years, and my country has been cutting interest rates for 3 years since the epidemic, and the effect of monetary policy has been marginally decreasing, and it should return to normal and be observed. Li Nan analyzed, "Secondly, the contribution of China's monetary policy to GDP continues to decrease, so a small monetary adjustment is not suitable for the stimulus of the economic trough, and a large monetary adjustment is not confident." Third, in the financial market, due to the general shortage of assets, interest rates have inverted in many places, which has affected the normal operation of financial institutions. β
Finally, unlike monetary means such as directional treasury bonds, interest rate cuts are non-directional additional currencies, but real estate and ** cannot be absorbed in the current market, and interest rate cuts may cause CPI to rise. Since the beginning of this year, consumer demand has been weak, and the CPI increase has been running at a low level on the whole, and it remains to be seen whether another interest rate cut will have a stimulating effect on the CPI increase. Li Nan further said.