Recently, it was reported that due to geopolitical deterioration, the four major shipping giants (MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd) have suspended the Red Sea route through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which means that shipping between Asia and Europe will avoid the Suez Canal from the Red Sea to the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, resulting in increased costs, freight rates** and shipping schedule delays. Analysts believe this makes the route from Asia to Northern Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean take up to 10 days to sail. In addition, the cost of sea freight has increased dramatically, and depending on the scale and duration of the Suez Canal disruption, ocean freight rates are expected to drop significantly**. Affected by the news, on December 18, the main 2404 contract of the domestic container transportation index (European line) ** closed the daily limit, and opened sharply on the 19th, and the bullish atmosphere jumped on paper.
Container Shipping Index (European Line)**Main 2404 Contract Trend Chart
Data**: Exchanges
Due to the relatively high proportion of domestic tire exports, we will make a simple analysis of the impact of European line sea freight on domestic tire exports in the later stage. From the perspective of the proportion of domestic tire exports to different continents, Europe has always been the continent where China exports the most passenger car tires, and from January to October 2013, China exported 88 passenger car tires to Europe980,000 tons, a significant increase of 37 compared with last year40%, which is the largest increase in all continents, accounting for 3740%, a number of domestic passenger car tire manufacturers have customers in Europe.
Data**: Customs Data & Longzhong Information Collation
Data**: Customs Data & Longzhong Information Collation
In terms of truck and bus tires, affected by the double reverse and other policies, the proportion of truck and bus tires exported to Europe by China is relatively small, ranking only ahead of South America and Oceania. From January to October 2013, China exported 41 tires to European trucks and buses130,000 tons, an increase of 6 compared with last year250,000 tons, an increase of 1792%, the overall increase is smaller than that of Asia, North America, and South America, and the overall proportion has rebounded to 1070%。China's exports of truck and bus tires are mainly concentrated in Asia, and from January to October 2013, China exported 151 truck and bus tires to other Asian countries680,000 tons, an increase of 17 over last year570,000 tons, an increase of 1310%, with an overall share of nearly 40%, with the Middle East being the main destination.
Data**: Customs Data & Longzhong Information Collation
Data**: Customs Data & Longzhong Information Collation
For the recent European line sea freight**, what impact may be brought to domestic tire exports, Longzhong Information selected some manufacturers for the incident to investigate, the situation is as follows:
Review:
Affected by geopolitics, the four major shipowners in the Red Sea region have suspended their services, resulting in a significant increase in sea freight rates on European routes, and sea freight rates in North Africa and the Middle East will also rise. It is understood that the above areas have been significantly improved by the end of December, and for January, the sea will continue to increase, and some of them have doubled in January. Since tires are relatively low-value goods, the large increase in freight costs will bring a significant increase to the procurement costs of overseas buyers. On the whole, the sea freight ** has affected Europe, the Middle East, Africa and other routes, and these regions are all areas where domestic tire exports are relatively concentrated, which will have different degrees of impact on the export volume from December 2023 to January 2024. It is reported that the tire factory has been urging anxious customers to arrange as many orders as possible before the end of the month, resulting in a significant increase in the number of orders in recent days. On the other hand, due to the excessively fast freight rates in some regions, the wait-and-see mentality of overseas customers has increased, which is expected to form a certain limit on the export volume in January.